For those who are new, Vivid Picks is a simple fantasy sports game where you pick multiple players to go over or under their assigned line.
Even if you already bet or play other DFS-style pick-em games, Vivid Picks offers a few unique selling points:
- Using our code (BetspertsGolf) gets you a first deposit bonus of up to $250 and a $25 secured play. If you lose your first pick, up to $25, you get $25 in promo funds to play again with. That’s by far the best new user deal in the industry!
- For every pick you get right, you automatically get 10% of your stake back in free plays. So if you bet $100 on a 5-leg play and only win four of them, you still get $40 back in promo funds, which can be used on your next play.
- Users can boost each other’s plays up to 0.5X if they all tail each other. Each person tailing your play boosts it 0.1x up to 0.5x total. Follow me, “Noonan” on Vivid, to take advantage!
If you haven’t signed up, you can do so here with our exclusive code “BetspertsGolf.” If you’re a new Vivid Picks user and take advantage of our promotion, you can get full access to Betsperts Golf, including the Rabbit Hole, for just $5! More details here.
Each week, I’ll be posting this free article with a few of my favorite plays for each tournament, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. Also, join our Vivid Picks Discord.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Vivid Plays
Round 1 Versus – Fewer Total Strokes
Ludvig Aberg (+1.5) vs. Shane Lowry
Shane Lowry was tied for the lead heading into last week’s final round at ‘The Cog,’ but a disappointing final round landed him a T4 finish. His consistently strong finishes at PGA National have yet to roll over to Bay Hill, the site of this week’s tournament. Lowry’s 67th-place finish at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational was the best result of his career at the event after missing the cut in each of his previous four attempts.
Shane Lowry tees off at 1:30 pm EST time with Ludvig Aberg in the second-to-last pairing of Round 1. Using the Rabbit Hole, it’s interesting to see that Shane Lowry has the worst PM scoring average in the field over the past 12 months. I wouldn’t use this data by itself to make decisions, but given Lowry’s poor course fit and lack of previous success here, I’m looking to fade him here. You can also play his Over 71.5 strokes market, but to build this card, I’ll use Aberg head-to-head against him. I’m comfortable laying the 1.5 strokes, with our projections showing a nearly three-stroke edge for Aberg.
Adam Scott (+1.5) vs. Sami Valimaki
Course history matters a bit more this week than your standard Tour average event. This is not a place where the average debutant shows up and thrives. Sami Valimaki played well a few weeks ago against a weak field in Mexico, but this is a pretty massive jump-up in field strength and course difficulty. His short game is consistently poor, which will be an issue for him since these firm and fast Bermuda greens are difficult to hold.
On the other hand, Adam Scott is quietly playing outstanding golf right now, with seven consecutive T20 or better finishes, five of which are inside the top 8. His length and accuracy off the tee are excellent fits for Bay Hill, and while he hasn’t truly contended here since a solo third-place finish in 2014, he’s made six of his past seven cuts at this event. We don’t need him to contend in this spot; we just need a solid round since I anticipate Valimaki will struggle. This is the biggest edge in our projections this week, with Scott nearly five full strokes ahead of Sami V.
Keegan Bradley (+0.5) vs. Justin Rose
Keegan Bradley is one of my four outright picks this week. He’s made the cut here in 11 straight starts, finishing T11 or better in three straight years. He loves Florida golf and ranks second in the field in “SG: Florida” over the past 50 rounds he has played. His high ball flight helps him hold this firm and fast Bermuda greens, especially from 200+ yards out, where he ranks seventh in fairway proximity and fourth in proximity from the rough.
He’s gained strokes on approach in 12 consecutive measured events, and he’s gained strokes putting in each of his past three starts at Bay Hill.
He’s also fourth in this week’s field (min. 8 rounds) in AM scoring average, so I’m looking for him to get off to a hot start. Justin Rose last saw the weekend at Bay Hill in 2019, missing the cut in three of the past four seasons, mixing in a WD in 2021.
