The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill offers a stern test of golf, and historically, the winner comes from near the top of the betting board. The top of the betting board has been kept out of the winner’s circle this season, but that feels likely to change this week. This year’s signature status whittles the API field down to just 69 golfers, with the Friday cut set at the low 50 and ties, or as we saw at Riviera, anyone within 10 shots of the lead.
Despite being a healthy 7,454 yards from the tips, Bay Hill plays even longer than the scorecard would indicate. Despite that, distance advantages off the tee are mitigated because of the multitude of forced layups and doglegs throughout. Forced layups off the tee create a ton of long approach shots, and this week’s field will face a higher rate of 200+ yard approach shots than any other week this season. In 2023, just 29.1% of approach shots at Bay Hill were from 150 yards or closer, significantly lower than an average Tour event. Bay Hill’s lightning-fast, rock-solid Bermuda greens complexes feature run-offs that make the green difficult to hold, creating a lower-than-average green in regulation rate every year.
Bay Hill typically features some of the longest rough on Tour each season, and the fairways can also play fast. Don’t be surprised to see excellent tee shots roll into the rough or, even worse, the water. The 2015 redesign brings water into play on 11 of the 18 holes. And then there’s the wind. It’s always a story at Bay Hill. Be sure to check back on Wednesday for an updated weather report.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Bay Hill:
After the new superintendent, Chris Flynn took over, Bay Hill received a minor facelift in 2015. Fairways were widened, and tree numbers were reduced, making the off-the-tee game somewhat easier. On the flip side, the course did get tougher because Flynn shaved off a great deal of rough surrounding the water and bunkers, making it far easier for balls to roll into hazards in the typical firm and fast conditions.
The last big change to the course happened two years ago. Players arrived at Bay Hill and were surprised by the sight. Most of the sloping run-off areas from around the greens had been replaced with thick three-inch rough.
As is typical of most Florida courses, Bay Hill has 84 bunkers and nine holes with water danger. The water hazards have contributed to the course having the highest percentage of penalty strokes on Tour over the past three years. The course also typically plays very firm and fast. Throw in penal overseeded ryegrass rough, and golfers who are missing fairways and greens will consistently be scrambling for pars and bogeys.
So much of succeeding at Bay Hill comes down to leaving the ball in the correct spot, playing the proper angles, and staying patient. This is why course history matters so much here. The best way to know where to keep the ball in the fairway and on the greens is to have played in these conditions at Bay Hill previously. 16 of the past 19 winners had played in at least three Arnold Palmer Invitationals.
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There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Targets
Viktor Hovland
The focus of my card this week is golfers who’ve thrived in difficult scoring environments. Golfers with a strong track record of success at some of the Tour’s more difficult tracks, with a lean towards previous success here at Bay Hill or in Florida in general. Using the Rabbit Hole to look at the past 50 rounds played in Florida, Viktor Hovland comes out on top in total strokes gained (SG: Total). He was a shot off the lead heading into the final round last year before finishing T10, and he finished T2 back in 2022.
His combination of distance and accuracy off the tee is elite, and he’s one of the best 175+ yard approach players in the world, if not the best. He’s benefited from the green apron rough being grown out versus the short grass run-offs that it used to feature, which matters a lot since he’s struggled around the green so far in 2024. I’d play him to win at 16/1 because I don’t believe that Scheffler or McIlroy have double the win equity that Hovland has, but I love this price at Caesars if you have access to it.
Max Homa
Max Homa has teed it up at Bay Hill four times in his career, with his worst finish a T24 in his 2020 debut. He still needs to break out at a Major, though a T10 at last year’s Open Championship is a start. Homa’s played his best golf on long, difficult courses. His notable career wins have come at Riviera, Quail Hollow, TPC Potomac, and Torrey Pines.
He’s 10th in total driving, sixth in SG: FL, and 12th in SG: Difficult Scoring Conditions over the past 12 months. He’s also among the best in the field in scrambling from the rough (4th) and 3-putt avoidance (11th), which are key short-game metrics that I’m weighing heavily this week.
- To Win: 30/1 PointsBet
- Top 20: +100 DraftKings
Will Zalatoris
If you need a second-place finish in a strong field event played on a difficult golf course, Will Zalatoris is your guy. That’s a bit unfair, even though it’s accurate, but Zalatoris has also played well at Augusta, Torrey Pines, Riviera, and the Memorial at Muirfield Village, noteworthy because Viktor Hovland won last season’s event while Max Homa finished T5.
If not for Hideki Matsuyama’s ball-striking clinic on Sunday at Riv, Zalatoris would’ve got home in just his fourth start since last season’s back surgery. I think any lingering concerns about his health are gone at this point, and he’s ready to jump back into consideration as one of the top-10 golfers on the planet.
Keegan Bradley
Keegan Bradley has made the cut here in 11 straight starts, finishing T11 or better in three straight years. He loves Florida golf and ranks second in the field in “SG: Florida” over the past 50 rounds he has played. His high ball flight helps him hold this firm and fast Bermuda greens, especially from 200+ yards out, where he ranks seventh in fairway proximity and fourth in proximity from the rough.
He’s gained strokes on approach in 12 consecutive measured events, and he’s gained strokes putting in each of his past three starts at Bay Hill. I backed him to win on Monday morning at 90/1, a criminal price in this 69-man field, but I love targeting him in the finishing position market this week.
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