The PGA Tour moves to the second event of the “Florida Swing” with this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Having hosted this event since 1979, it is one of the most respected courses in the Sunshine State. “Arnie’s Tournament” is a limited-field, “Signature” event played on one of the PGA Tour’s most demanding layouts.
Bay Hill is a classical Florida-style golf course characterized by its length, Bermuda grass, thick rough, firm, and fast greens, and numerous bunkers and water hazards. With windy conditions playing a factor, five of the last six winners have finished with a score of 12-under or worse. Similar to the last two events at Riviera and PGA National, par is an acceptable score on a majority of holes on a layout that plays as the sternest non-major test of golf on the PGA Tour.
“Tough”, “can’t fake it”, and “mentally challenging” are all phrases players themselves have used to describe Bay Hill. Course knowledge, total driving skills, long-iron accuracy, high ball flight into firm greens, and being able to scramble in thicker rough are all important qualities for success here. Justin Rose summed it up best by saying, “There’s really no way to fake it around Bay Hill. The rough’s pretty thick. Generally, the greens are quite firm which requires pinpoint iron shots. There’s enough trouble out there that mentally it’s a challenge. You have to really commit to shots.”
The Field
We are only two months into the calendar year and this is already the fourth Signature event. The top two players in the world, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the way with McIlroy having perhaps the best course history of anyone at Bay Hill with eight top-13s in his nine career starts here. As one of the most predictive “course history” tracks on Tour, numerous players can boast stellar past performances here including Matt Fitzpatrick (six top-13s), Sungjae Im (five top-21s), and Chris Kirk (six top-16s).
54 of the top 55 eligible players in the world are committed, with Tony FInau being the only exception. The field is currently set at 69 golfers with the cut set at the low 50 and ties, or anyone within 10 shots of the lead.
Past Winners/Odds
Winning Trends
Betting Strategy
Looking at the “Winning Trends” section above for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a few things immediately stand out when searching for a winner for outright bets. Previous success and experience here at Bay Hill matter. Multiple trends speak to that fact. 23 of the past 27 winners were top-40 ranked players in the world. Being a world-class player matters here. Also, 26 of the past 27 winners had won a PGA Tour event before their win here. Thus, win equity is another important quality. Obviously, recent form always matters. These trends can also be used for targeting players for DFS or other types of bets.
In looking at the data and player quotes, Par-5 scoring is weighted much more heavily for me this week. Those four holes have a birdie or better average of 38%. I also want players who have some level of comfort on Florida-style courses with Bermuda greens. That does not mean one has to be a great putter to play well here. Players like Corey Conners, Luke List, and last year’s winner, Kurt Kitayama, have had good recent finishes here despite ranking low in putting.
Almost every player that has finished in the top five over the years has been tremendous tee-to-green. Another angle to attack is with international players who are more comfortable on firm and fast courses and in conditions that are more exposed to the elements. Up until the last three years recent winners have been non-American golfers. Bay Hill is similar in many ways to certain courses in the Middle East that are used on the DP World Tour. Also, the penal and “breezy” nature of Bay Hill resembles many European and Australian-style courses.
I will also be targeting players highly rated in Total Driving, which is a combination of Fairways Gained and Driving Distance. With this course being so difficult, past success on other “Major-style” courses is also included in the model this week.
Long-iron play from 200+ yards will be crucial, especially with such a high percentage of approaches from that range. Related to that is par-3 scoring, with each of the par-3s is in the 200-230 yard range. Every winner at this event over the past seven years has been ranked fourth or better in par-3 scoring for the week. That is an amazing stat nugget and emphasizes the importance of using quality par-3 players from that yardage range.
Finally, it appears that weather, in the form of windy conditions could have a huge impact on this tournament. While wind speeds are mostly calm on Thursday, Friday-Sunday is forecasting gusts 15+ mph. This should bump higher some of the typical quality wind players like Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, and Jason Day.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Arnold Palmer Invitational
*In order of importance
- SG: APP/Proximity 200+ yds
- Total Driving
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- BoB%
- SG: ARG/Scrambling
- Bogey/Dbl Bogey Avoidance
- Par 4 Scoring
- Course History
- Driving Distance
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Florida
- Event Season: Florida Swing
- Scoring Conditions: Very Difficult/Difficult
- Field Strength: Very Strong/Strong
- Course Length: Long/Very Long
- Event Type: Small Field
- Bunkers: High
- Water Danger: High
- Greens Surface: Bermuda
- Green Speed: Fast
- Rough Surface: Ryegrass
- Rough Penalty: High
- Rough Length: Long
- Gain APP: Difficult (3rd most)
- Gain OTT: Difficult (5th most)
- Scrambling (Rough): Difficult (3rd most)
- 3-Putt AVD: Difficult
- Par 3: Difficult
- Par 4: Difficult
Arnold Palmer Invitational – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Rory McIlroy +900
(2.50u) BetMGM
Will Zalatoris +3300
(0.70u) BetRivers
Adam Scott +5500
(0.40u) FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy +100 (1.5u) – BetRivers
Top 20
- Cam Young -105 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Justin Thomas -105 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Max Homa +100 (1u) – FanDuel
- Matt Fitzpatrick +100 (1.5u) – BetMGM
- Jason Day +110 (1u) – BetMGM
- Will Zalatoris +115 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Keegan Bradley -120 (1.2u)
- Chris Kirk -110 (1.1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images