And we’re back!!
The PGA Tour wasn’t away for very long, but the official start of the 2025 season kicks off this week with the annual trip to Maui for The Sentry at the Kapalua Plantation Course, formerly known as the Tournament of Champions. With an expanded field that includes all 2024 winners along with top-50 finishers from last season’s FedEx Cup Standings, the 2024 Sentry dropped the TOC moniker last year and will feature a field of 60, with a handful of Euro qualifiers including Rory McIlroy, electing to sit out. Rory, along with Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood, are set to start their 2025 season on the DP World Tour’s Dubai event in early January.
This is one of the Tour’s ‘Signature Events,’ formerly known as both “elevated” and “designated,” so the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is large, as are the FedEx Cup points attached to one’s finishing position. This is also a no-cut event, which is the case again for most of 2025’s Signature Events.
This is a great way to get back into things, with a loaded field at a unique par-73 track. As is often the case with coastal courses, wind can play a major factor, and the scenic elevation changes make for a spectacular viewing event to start the season off right.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is a bomber’s paradise. With the widest fairways on Tour and downhill slopes, players can unleash their drivers without fear. Driving accuracy isn’t a major concern here, as the course rewards both bombers and those who struggle with accuracy. In fact, 27 of the 30 longest drives on Tour last season were recorded at Kapalua, highlighting the emphasis on distance.
However, distance alone won’t cut it. This is a second-shot course, and accurate iron play is paramount. Players are hitting greens in regulation at a significantly higher rate than the Tour average, even from the rough. According to Ron’s preview, among the 85 PGA Tour courses equipped with Shotlink since 2015, the Plantation Course ranks as the easiest for gaining strokes off the tee (OTT) and the second-easiest for finding the fairway. Golfers who are inconsistent off the tee or whose balls tend to run through the fairway will have little to worry about, as the rough at Kapalua is the third-easiest to play from.
The distribution rates for approach shots from various yardage ranges indicate a higher-than-average percentage of both short and long approaches. Notably, there is a 5% increase in approaches from 50 to 100 yards compared to the average Tour course. Additionally, over 39% of all approach shots are made with wedges, which is the highest percentage among all courses on the Tour. Given the number of lengthy holes at Kapalua, the 200+ yard range also experiences an increase, with 28% of shots compared to the Tour average of 25%.
The Bermuda rough is manageable, and the massive greens provide plenty of landing areas. But don’t let the generous green sizes fool you. These Bermuda putting surfaces are incredibly challenging. They’re large and undulating, demanding precise approach shots to the correct quadrant. The slopes and grain make lag putting a real test, and one-putts are hard to come by.
While distance is a factor, approach accuracy and a hot putter are crucial for success at Kapalua. Players who can navigate the slopes and master the greens will have a distinct advantage.
Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
-SG: Total, Easy Scoring Conditions
-Putting (SG: P, SG: Bermuda Putting, 3-Putt Avoidance 25+ ft)
-SG: APP, Large Greens
-SG: OTT (OTT Club – Driver Heavy)
-Par 5 Birdie or Better Rate
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none.
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting in the outright market this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication in Discord.
Noonan’s Sentry Betting Targets
Justin Thomas (12/1, FanDuel)
There’s a sizable amount of projection and glass-half-full optimism behind backing Justin Thomas at this short of a number. He hasn’t won since the 2022 PGA at Southern Hills, and he’s barely been competitive for large stretches during the winless drought. Yes, his course history at the Plantation Course is unrivaled, but that’s such an insignificant part of my handicapping process that I didn’t fully grasp his history here until after I chose to back him.
Thomas has made 12 of his past 13 cuts since the Masters, mixing in competitive finishes at Harbor Town, Valhalla, and TPC River Highlands, plus his fall performance at both the ZOZO (T2) and Hero World Challenge (3rd) showed that he’s close to finding himself in the winner’s circle again on an upcoming Sunday.
His putter hasn’t been good enough, but he’s still capable of the occasional spiked putting week required to win at Kapalua. His tee-to-green game is in excellent form right now, and this is a great track to show off his distance gains off the tee. He’s always been one of the best wedge players on Tour, with a bag full of creativity from 100 yards and in, which is at the heart of why he’s played so well here in the past.
Sam Burns (28/1, DraftKings)
Sam Burns finished the 2024 season with more consistency than he’d shown in years, with seven T15 or better finishes over his final nine starts to the season, including a T5 and T2 at the season’s first two playoff events. He doesn’t have a long or overly encouraging history of strong performances here at Kapalua, but I believe his game is well-suited for what it takes to win this event.
Burns is one of the Tour’s most consistent putters, and the Louisiana product has been dubbed “Bermuda Burns” for a reason. Burns has been strokes gained positive on the greens in 78.57% of his rounds played on Bermudagrass over the past two years. His approach game has been more consistent lately, too, likely due to a bit of osmosis that comes from spending so much time with Scottie Scheffler on the road. Burns also has the requisite distance off the tee that will lead to more scoring opportunities here, and there’s minimal penalty for the wayward drives that can sometimes be his undoing.
Burns is also the best lag putter in the field, with the best 3-putt avoidance rate from 25+ feet over the past 12 months. His putter is good enough to keep him in the mix on his less-than-stellar ball-striking days, so his ceiling is about as high as anyone teeing it up this week.
Nick Dunlap (80/1, Caesars)
We don’t often see a 20-year-old come on Tour and win, and Nick Dunlap did it twice last season. In fact, Dunlap took on both Justin Thomas and Sam Burns during the final round at the American Express to capture his first win last January, another event where the demand for birdies in bunches is high.
The recently turned 21-year-old is still a bit inconsistent, but that’s to be expected. We’re banking on ceiling outcomes at this price, and Dunlap has flashed ceiling against the strongest fields. You can make the case that the FedEx St. Jude field, the first leg of the playoffs, is as strong as any non-Major field on Tour. Dunlap was in the mix until the very end, finishing T5 on the week. He’s becoming a more consistent ball-striker, and he grades out as the top performer in this week’s field from the key range of 75-100 yards.
For the year, Dunlap lost strokes putting, but in 24 rounds on Bermudagrass greens, he gained on average 0.53 strokes per round, the ninth-best rate in the field. His two wins came on tracks that demand birdies, so if you’re looking for a down-the-board option, I think he’s the top shout in this price range.