We are back! Happy New Year to all. 2025 is shaping up to be another year of immense progress for Betsperts Golf and the Rabbit Hole. I cannot wait to share all of the new data-packed features that we continue adding to the site as we proceed with our goal of having the most comprehensive and unique PGA Tour database anywhere.
There is no better place to kick off the 2025 calendar year than Hawaii’s warmth, beauty, and lush green grass at The Sentry, played at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Since 1999, the Tour has kicked off the new year with this tournament which has been held at the Kapalua Resort near Lahaina on the island of Maui.
Kapalua is where paradise and golf meet. Once the site of a large pineapple plantation, it’s such a unique course that you can see whales breaching in the distance on the first tee, and on the 18th tee can wallop a 450+ yard drive. Thanks to the wind and elevation changes, it is one of the few courses on Earth where the yardage on the scorecard is irrelevant on many holes.
This compilation of the world’s best golfers (most of whom were tournament winners last year) is a unique, no-cut, small-field event, played on a low-scoring par-73 course that has expansive fairways, numerous elevation changes, and gusty coastal breezes. Thanks to the combination of easy-to-hit fairways and greens, it’s one of the most genuine birdie fests on Tour, and it favors the best wedge players and the hottest putters. It plays the complete opposite of a target-style golf course. The allowance for creativity and multiple options for each shot makes it a fun track to play. Players with every shot in their bag who can maneuver the terrain and manage the wind will best position themselves for success at Kapalua.
After a wind-blown 2020 where the winning score by Justin Thomas was only 14-under par, the past four events have seen scoring return to the more common finishing number of 25-under or lower. There has also been some Sunday drama. In 2022, Cam Smith took birdie-making to another level by winning with an event record of 34-under and outlasting Jon Rahm by one stroke. In 2023, Rahm got his revenge by taking advantage of Collin Morikawa’s final-round collapse and rallying from as many as nine strokes back to win by two. And then last year, Chris Kirk held off a strong charge from Sahith Theegala to win by one stroke with a 29-under score for the week.
The Sentry Field
Before last year, the Sentry field comprised only PGA Tour winners from the previous season. But starting with 2024’s tournament, the top 50 from the previous year’s FedEx Cup and any other Tour winner from the past year are eligible to participate. Currently, 60 players are in the field, including 37 of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Unfortunately, the world’s top-ranked player, Scottie Scheffler, had to withdraw after injuring his hand on Christmas Day while preparing dinner. He had surgery to remove pieces of glass from his hand and is expected to miss three to four weeks. Three top-ranked Europeans – Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry – are also skipping out on the event as each typically prefers to start their season in Dubai in a few weeks. Past Sentry champions that will be teeing off this week include Xander Schauffele, Chris Kirk, and two-time winner Justin Thomas.
The Sentry kicks off the “Hawaii Swing” (which concludes with next week’s Sony Open) and is meant as a paradise of escape from the cold winter enveloping most of America by providing the best players on Tour with a rewarding experience at the Kapalua Resort. With everyone in the field coming in with at least a month off from regular competition, it’s always interesting to see which players have been grinding away back home over the break and come out sharp in the first round. The resort setup is meant to help the pros ease back into the grind after (mostly) putting their clubs away over the holidays.
Related to returning from a long break, Patrick Cantlay remarked, “It’s a good golf course to kind of shake some rust off. The fairways are big and there’s lots of space out here to hit shots and it’s also a golf course where you have to be very creative, and so you have to play all the different shots out here to be successful.”
Past Winners & Odds
Most Important Stats For Success at the Plantation Course at Kapalua
- BoB %
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Proximity 200-250 yds
- Par 5 BoB%
- SG: Putting 5-15 ft
- Proximity 50-100 yds
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Driving Distance
- SG: Easy Scoring Courses
- SG: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Unique Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Hawaii
- Scoring Conditions: Very Easy/Easy
- Course Length: Long
- Field Strength: Strong
- Course Type: Coastal/Resort
- Field Size: Small Field
- Event Type: No Cut
- Greens Surface: Bermuda
- Green Size: Large
- Rough Surface: Bermuda
- OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
- Gain OTT: Very Easy
- Rough Penalty: Low
- Gain APP: Very Easy
Weather Forecast – Honolua Bay, Maui, Hawaii
The Sentry – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14X1dxLmKibefN60nKrEQ9bS0MTIGz9eEcc7ErRnPywo/edit?usp=sharing
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Collin Morikawa +1100 (02.18u) – DK
- Patrick Cantlay +1600 (1.50u) – DK
- Eric Cole +8000 (0.30u) – FD
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Collin Morikawa +120 (1u) – Rivers
- Patrick Cantlay +175 (1u) – Caesars
Top 20
- Byeong Hun An +100 (1u) – DK
- J.T. Poston +130 (1u) – DK
- Eric Cole +180 (1u) – DK
Top 30
- Sepp Straka +100 (1u) – Rivers
- Matt Fitzpatrick +100 (1u) – Rivers
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images