The PGA Tour returns to stroke play action south of the border for the Mexico Open. Located a few miles off the Pacific coast near the town of Puerto Vallarta, the Vidanta Vallarta Resort (one of the highest-rated hotels in Mexico) and its “Signature Course” designed by LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman, will host this event for the second time after last year’s inaugural tournament which was won by Jon Rahm at 17-under.
Dating back to 1944, the Mexico Open has quite a historic past and has been considered Mexico’s national championship. With the PGA Tour pulling out of certain World Golf Championship (WGC) events two years ago, such as the one at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan, Mexico, this tournament is an official FedExCup event with a purse of $7.7 million and 500 points to the winner.
With its considerable length, it is definitely a course that favors bombers off the tee and excellent players on approach from over 200 yards. Like most resort-style courses near the ocean, coastal winds and familiarity with Paspalum grass could play a significant factor in determining the winner.
Field
Overall, the strength of this field is extremely weak. With it being an international event, along with it being a “bombers” course, and a long plane ride to next week’s designated event, the Wells Fargo Championship, it is easy to see why few top-ranked players would choose to make the trip. Headlining the 144-player field is the world’s top-ranked player, and defending Mexico Open champion, Jon Rahm. World No. 16, Tony Finau will also return this year. After him, the next highest-ranked player is No. 49, Alex Noren. This field is so weak that there are only eight total players ranked in the top 100 in the world.
2023 Mexico Open – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Weak Fields
- SG: Paspalum
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Driver Heavy Course
The Mexico Open is an interesting event played on a relatively new course and with an extremely weak field. We also could say it’s an extremely “top-heavy” field with the number one player in the world, Jon Rahm, who is expected to repeat his championship from last year. But with over 140 players from outside of the top-100, it’s the type of week you either love or hate.
Usually, this is an event where if you know the lower-end players well and do your research, there are edges to be gained. Every week is an opportunity and I think you have to view it that way. Player odds are definitely hard to wrap your head around but that is how it is at weak-field events. Only having one event played here also removes course history from the equation because it is not enough sample size to make any judgments on solely last year’s results.
That being said, there is a pretty clear recipe for success here. Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,456 yards. It ranks as the 6th longest course on Tour. The course gets much of its teeth from some lengthy par-4s. Five of them measure at least 475 yards and are especially challenging when played into the wind. They combined to average 0.26 strokes over par with a birdie or better rate of only 7.9%. Three of the par-5s are massive with two over 600 yards including the 12th hole which is beastly in length at 637 yards and an eagle rate of only 0.9%. In fact, Vidanta Vallarta has the longest combination of par-4s and par-5s on Tour.
Driving distance is crucial this week. I crossed scores of shorter hitters off my list this week right from the start. Off the tee, players will be met with wide landing areas on fairways that are perfect for bombers who love to hit a ton of drivers. Almost 78% of drives were over 280 yards which is one of the highest rates on Tour.
Last year, long hitters like Rahm, Finau, Cameron Champ, Kurt Kitayama, and Patrick Rodgers filled the top 10 of the leaderboard as 7 of the top 10 finishers ranked in the top 16 for Driving Distance on the week. Along with the rough being non-penal, the slower paspalum fairways will give an added bonus to those with longer Carry Distance, which is another important “bomber” stat to look for this week.
I am basing many of my bets on how well players rate in my “Fab 5” sub-model for the week. This ranking narrows the tournament down to the five most important metrics for the week. For the Mexico Open, this includes Driving Distance, SG: Approach, proximity from 200+ yards (44% of approaches come from this range), my Scoring model (includes BoB% and Par 5 Scoring), and past performance on other similar courses that play long and easy with weak fields.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Mexico Open
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Proximity 200+ yds
- Driving Distance
- BoB%
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Winds 15+ mph
- SG: T2G (Last 24 Rounds)
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Par 3
Weather Forecast – Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico
The Mexico Open Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Gary Woodland +3500 (currently +2500)
In the midst of one of the best ball-striking stretches of his career, Woodland is the second-best ball striker in the field (behind Rahm) and has gained at least two strokes on approach in eight of his last 13 events. Even better, he has not lost strokes off the tee since September. His consistency has also greatly improved as he has made eight of his last 10 cuts. While putting has been his greatest weakness of late, he gained a combined 7.4 strokes putting in his last two events. Ranking fourth overall in my model, the past major winner is one of the few players in the field with actual win equity.
(0.68u) PointsBet
Patrick Rodgers +3600 (currently +2800)
Still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, Rodgers has another great chance to end the drought this week in Mexico. He finished 10th here last year and also is a great fit on a course that demands distance off the tee and scoring upside. He finished 5th in my model and ranks in the top-10 in the majority of metrics. His recent form has been improving with a 5th at the Valero and a 19th at the RBC Heritage. He gained 14.1 strokes ball-striking in those two events
(0.66u)
Nicolai Hojgaard +4000 (currently +3000)
Week after week, Hojgaard continues to impress. Last week at the Zurich Classic, he carried his partner, Thorbjorn Olesen, gaining over seven strokes for the event. This week, he moves to a course that fits his skill set perfectly. He has elite driving and carry distance and ranks 11th off the tee. His combination of consistency and upside is also unmatched outside of Rahm and Finau. Worldwide, he has made 11 straight cuts with four top-10s in that same time period.
(0.60u) BetRivers
Joseph Bramlett +10000 (currently +6000)
Bramlett was the biggest surprise when running my weekly model as he finished 7th overall. While he has always been long off the tee, his approach game has improved so much that he enters the week as the 5th best ball-striker (combination of OTT and APP) in the field. Over his last 11 events, he has gained on approach in eight of them. He is also one of the best long-iron and par-5 scorers in the field. Recently on similar courses, he has a 13th place finish at the Farmers and a 9th at the Houston Open.
(0.24u) PointsBet
Luke List +11000 (currently +6600)
If there was ever a “Luke List” course, Vidanta Vallarta is it. Length off the tee, strong from 200+ yards, greens that neutralize bad putters, and a very weak field all make List a very attractive option this week. His win last year at the Farmers was on a similar lengthy course that demanded many of the same skills that are needed this week.
(0.21u) PointsBet
Other Outright Selections
- Byeong Hun An +4000 (0.60u) – BetRivers
- Aaron Rai +6000 (0.40u) – PointsBet (currently +5000)
- Emiliano Grillo +6600 (0.36u) – BetRivers (currently +5500)
- Akshay Bhatia +11000 (0.21u)- FanDuel
- Vincent Norrman +17500 (0.13u) – PointsBet (currently +10000)
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Tony Finau -110 (1.2u) – FanDuel
Top 20
- Wyndham Clark -115 (1.3u) – BetRivers
- Gary Woodland +125 (1u) – FanDuel
- Patrick Rodgers +130 (1u) – FanDuel
- Ben An +150 (1u) – FanDuel
- Nicolai Hojgaard +155 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – all DraftKings
- Stephen Jaeger -110 (1.2u)
- Aaron Rai -105 (1.1u)
- Alex Noren -105 (1.1u)
- Emiliano Grillo +110 (1u)
- Will Gordon +110 (1u)
- Joseph Bramlett +120 (1.1u)
Top 40
- Ben Martin -105 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Matt Wallace +110 (1u) – FanDuel
- Brandon Wu +115 (1u) – FanDuel
- Nate Lashley +125 (1u) – BetRivers
- Akshay Bhatia +140 (1u) – FanDuel
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images