My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
Key Stats Considered
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.
This Week’s Stats
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. No matter the course, the second shot will almost always be the most important. Given the heavy bunkering around the green, sticking your approach will avoid having to get up and down from the sand.
- Jon Rahm
- Tony Finau
- Gary Woodland
- Kevin Roy
- Nicolai Hojgaard
- Wyndham Clark
- Eric Cole
- Joseph Bramlett
- Augusto Nunez
- Matt Wallace
Opportunities Gained — This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better). The greens at Vidanta are large, so greens-in-regulation will not all be equal. A dart to inside 15-feet is what you’ll need to win a tournament that looks like it is setting up to have a fairly low score.
- Jon Rahm
- Ryan Gerard
- Luke List
- Kevin Roy
- Ben Martin
- Wyndham Clark
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Tony Finau
- Michael Kim
- Chez Reavie
Proximity from 200+ — There are some longer Par 3s and Par 5s on this course which resulted in over 40% of the approach shots coming from this distance. Albeit it there is limited data for this course, that’s a hard stat to neglect.
- Jon Rahm
- Gary Woodland
- Kevin Roy
- Charley Hoffman
- Richy Werenski
- Robby Shelton
- Augusto Nunez
- Satoshi Kodaira
- Nate Lashley
- Ben Taylor
Par 5 Scoring — Vidanta has several long Par 5s. When you look at Par 5 scoring, it’s not always players who are long off the tee who hit the ball a mile. There are some shorter hitters who are deadly from within 100 yards that can give themselves short birdie opps as well.
- Jon Rahm
- Kevin Chappell
- Augusto Nunez
- Tony Finau
- Chris Stroud
- Patrick Rodgers
- Nate Lashley
- Wyndham Clark
- Richy Werenski
- Beau Hossler
Sand Saves — There are an eye-popping 100+ bunkers strune about at Vidanta. The optimal strategy would be to avoid them, but I’m sprinkling a little sand save percentage because it’s inevitable that the top finishers will need to get up and down a few times.
- Austin Cook
- Harry Higgs
- Brian Stuard
- Mav McNealy
- SH Kim
- Patrick Rodgers
- Andrew Putnam
- Sung Kang
- Robby Shelton
- Jimmy Walker
Recent Form — Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it’s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.
- Jon Rahm
- Wyndham Clark
- Ben Martin
- Tony Finau
- Michael Kim
- Eric Cole
- Dylan Wu
- Ben An
- Harry Hall
- Patrick Rodgers
Driving Distance — Given the wide fairways, I’m looking mostly at driving distance this week. Guys that can really push the ball down the fairway will have the advantage on the longer Par 4s and 5s.
- Ben An
- Luke List
- Gary Woodland
- Matthias Schmid
- Joseph Bramlett
- Kyle Westmoreland
- Jon Rahm
- Brandon Matthews
- Dylan Frittelli
- Patrick Rodgers
SG: Putting (Not Fast) — Most of the Paspalum courses don’t have strokes gained data, so we don’t know who has excelled on that surface, but what we do know is that they normally run slower. The grass-type is known to take a lot of cutting to maintain it’s speed. Over the course of the day during this tournament we can safely say that the greens will be running slow. For this stat I looked at players who putted well on slower surfaces. Because this is a bit speculative, it’s not factored heavily into the model.
- Mav McNealy
- Hank Lebioda
- Lanto Griffin
- Harry Hall
- Ben Taylor
- SH Kim
- Eric Cole
- Peter Malnati
- Andrew Novak
- Harry Higgs
Peaking and Fading – One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
- Patrick Rodgers
- Ben Martin
- Jimmy Walker
- MJ Daffue
- Lee Hodgers
Fading
- Joseph Bramlett
- Matt Wallace
- Garrick Higgo
- Patton Kizzire
- Will Gordon
Statistical Model Top 50 Rankings
| 1. Jon Rahm | Tough to pick against Rahm in this field. He rates out well above even Finau in second place by ranking first in five stat categories: Approach, Recent Form, 200+ proximity, Par 5 Scoring, and Opportunities Gained |
| 2. Tony Finau | Finau is a distant second ranking inside the top five in approach, recent form, and Par 5 Scoring. He’s also tenth in opportunities gained. |
| 3. Nicolai Hojgaard | Hojgaard has limited rounds, but had nice showings at Punta Cana and the Valero. This course is similar to Corales in that it’s a resort course, which are usually a tad on the easier side. He rates out well in approach, 200+ proximity, Par 5 Scoring, and recent form |
| 4. Wyndham Clark | I love Clark this week. He is eighth or better in approach, Par 5 scoring, opportunities gained, and form. The only red flag would be his low rating in 200+ approach shots which is nearly half the shots at this course. |
| 5. Eric Cole | Cole ranks 20th or better in approach, 200+ proximity, form, sand saves, and opportunities gained. |
| 6. Kevin Roy | A potential sleeper at a bargain price in DFS and on Sportsbooks, Roy fits the key stats pretty well despite not being in the best of form. His second shot stats are really second to only Rahm and maybe Finau. He rates out 5th or better in approach, 200+ proximity, and opportunities gained |
| 7. Gary Woodland | Woodland only lacks in the sand save department, but if he can hit greens it may not be a necessary skill. He rates out fifth or better in approach, driving distance, and 200+ proximity |
| 8. Patrick Rodgers | Rodgers rates out 11th or better in driving distance, sand saves, Par 5 scoring, and recent form. |
| 9. Nate Lashley | Lashley is a dog from the key 200+ proximity, rating out 8th. He’s also 7th in Par 5 scoring and top 25 in approach and recent form. |
| 10. Robby Shelton | Shelton lands at 6th in 200+ proximity while ranking 6th in approach, and 10th in sand saves |
| 11. Augusto Nunez | |
| 12. Michael Kim | |
| 13. Lanto Griffin | |
| 14. Matt Wallace | |
| 15. Akshay Bhatia | |
| 16. Ben Martin | |
| 17. MJ Daffue | |
| 18. Joseph Bramlett | |
| 19. Dylan Wu | |
| 20. Satoshi Kodaira | |
| 21. Chris Stround | |
| 22. Ben An | |
| 23. Chex Reavie | |
| 24. Brent Grant | |
| 25. Charley Hoffman | |
| 26. Erik Van Rooyen | |
| 27. Brandon Wu | |
| 28. Garrick Higgo | |
| 29. Vincent Norman | |
| 30. Matthias Schmid | |
| 31. Patton Kizzire | |
| 32. Aaron Rai | |
| 33. Scott Piercey | |
| 34. Ryan Gerard | |
| 35. Stephan Jaeger | |
| 36. Kyle Westmoreland | |
| 37. Kevin Streelman | |
| 38. Beau Hossler | |
| 39. Jimmy Walker | |
| 40. Richy Werenski | |
| 41. Will Gordon | |
| 42. Lee Hodges | |
| 43. Kevin Chappell | |
| 44. Wesley Bryan | |
| 45. Luke List | |
| 46. Tano Goya | |
| 47. Ricky Barnes | |
| 48. Kevin Tway | |
| 49. Andrew Putnam | |
| 50. Austin Cook |