Strategy
This week’s Mexico Open presents us with both a very clear tier structure and a simple recipe for success at this course. Along the same lines, a top-heavy player pool along with a lack of overall win equity likewise presents us with simple yet important lineup questions to answer. With Jon Rahm clearly on top and Tony Finau being a tier below, do we play at least one of them in every lineup? What about playing them both together? How much Rahm is too much Rahm?…or is too much Rahm even possible? And is it possible to fade those two completely and start lineups in the “mostly winless” tier among players like Wyndham Clark, Patrick Rodgers, or Gary Woodland who hasn’t won since the 2019 U.S. Open?
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bFor me, I can’t see how you don’t play Rahm at least the field average if not well overweight. He is the best player in the world…in a very weak field…on a course that plays to his strengths where he won last year. I would expect him to be at least 40% owned in the multi-entry tournaments and well above that number in single-entry and 3-max type contests. There may be leverage with Finau coming in less owned and most likely even more leverage in playing them both together. The latter gets tricky really fast as you are left with some very uncomfortable names in which to click.
Overall, I think the best strategy, especially if not multi-entering is to start your lineup with either Rahm or Finau and then pick and choose from a vast array of players between Wyndham Clark at $9.7K and Vincent Norrman at $7.2K to balance out the remaining spots. For those that want to get unique, with Rahm being as expensive as he is, I think there is a decent possibility that he could win and yet not be in the most optimal winning lineups. As can be seen in my player pool ranges below, the mid-range and value tiers are loaded with bombers and other similar high-upside types who fit this course very well. Some of these players include MJ Daffue, Garrick Higgo, Luke List, Akshay Bhatia, Norrman, Cam Champ, Brent Grant, Kevin Roy and even Kyle Westmoreland down at $6.3K.
2023 Mexico Open – Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Weak Fields
- SG: Paspalum
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Driver Heavy Courses
Usually, this is an event where if you know the lower-end players well and do your research, there are edges to be gained. Every week is an opportunity and I think you have to view it that way. Player salaries are definitely hard to wrap your head around but that is how it is at weak-field events. Only having one event played here also removes course history from the equation because it is not enough sample size to make any judgments on solely last year’s results.
That being said, there is a pretty clear recipe for success here. Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,456 yards. It ranks as the 6th longest course on Tour. The course gets much of its teeth from some lengthy par-4s. Five of them measure at least 475 yards and are especially challenging when played into the wind. They combined to average 0.26 strokes over par with a birdie or better rate of only 7.9%. Three of the par-5s are massive with two over 600 yards including the 12th hole which is beastly in length at 637 yards and an eagle rate of only 0.9%. In fact, Vidanta Vallarta has the longest combination of par-4s and par-5s on Tour.
Driving distance is crucial this week. I crossed scores of shorter hitters off my list this week right from the start. Off the tee, players will be met with wide landing areas on fairways that are perfect for bombers who love to hit a ton of drivers. Almost 78% of drives were over 280 yards which is one of the highest rates on Tour.
Last year, long hitters like Rahm, Finau, Cameron Champ, Kurt Kitayama, and Patrick Rodgers filled the top 10 of the leaderboard as 7 of the top 10 finishers ranked in the top 16 for Driving Distance on the week. Along with the rough being non-penal, the slower paspalum fairways will give an added bonus to those with longer Carry Distance, which is another important “bomber” stat to look for this week.
I am basing much of my player pool (right now around 50 total players) on how well golfers rate in my “Fab 5” sub-model for the week. This ranking narrows the tournament down to the five most important metrics for the week. For the Mexico Open, this includes Driving Distance, SG: Approach, proximity from 200+ yards (44% of approaches come from this range), my Scoring model (includes BoB% and Par 5 Scoring), and past performance on other similar courses that play long and easy with weak fields.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Mexico Open
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Proximity 200+ yds
- Driving Distance
- BoB%
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Winds 15+ mph
- SG: T2G (Last 24 Rounds)
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Par 3
Weather Forecast – Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico
Mexico Open – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images