The PGA Tour kicks off the first of four straight Florida events in Palm Beach Gardens at PGA National for The Honda Classic. Sandwiched between four designated events, the Honda Classic drew the short straw on the calendar this season, and the field’s quality reflects that. It’s unusual for any golfer, especially those who rank inside the top 50 in the world, to play five consecutive weeks, so this acts as a perfect bye week for the world’s best. Even second and third-tier golfers like Keith Mitchell, Gary Woodland, and Sam Ryder, who typically tee it up at this event every year, are taking the week off. The fine folks at Honda are so excited about this situation that they’re opting out and will no longer be the title sponsor for this event moving forward. Tough scene.
Jack Nicklaus played a big role in the original design and the recent updates to this course, and the consensus is it’s one of the toughest non-major Par-70 tracks on Tour each season. If you’re watching the broadcast coverage this week, you’ll likely hear a lot about the famous ‘Bear Trap.’ The Bear Trap, holes 15-17, is generally considered one of the Tour’s most challenging three-hole stretches. Birdies will be hard to come by this week, and bogey avoidance will be more critical than any other week over the past two months.
Similar to most Florida stops, water hazards, bunkers, and windy conditions can wreak havoc on this event, bringing in an added layer of variance to a highly variant sport. Early weather reports are encouraging as far as the wind goes, but check back as Thursday approaches. Looking at my card from years past, I’m typically lighter here pre-tournament, saving bullets for matchups and chasing outright winners on the weekend.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about PGA National:
PGA National is not an easy introduction to the Florida Swing. Every golfer in the field knows they are going to be tested to their limit. The average winning score over the past 13 years has been 9-under par. The winner has either been a favorite or a longshot in 11 of the past 13 years. Part of the reason for the disparity in winners is that the Honda Classic is one of the most volatile events on the Tour.
Famous for its 15 holes with water danger, PGA National will favor golfers with a balance of short game and ball-striking who can avoid penalty areas, scramble for pars and manage any windy conditions. It plays similarly to a major tournament and favors those players who demonstrate patience.
Every part of a player’s tee-to-green game will be tested. Trouble is literally lurking everywhere as strategic bunkers, along with 26 actual water hazards on 15 different holes, litter the property. Eight holes require approach shots to cross a water hazard making accurate iron play paramount. Over the past five years, the field has averaged 2.42 double bogeys or worse per 72 holes which ranks as the most from any course on Tour.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b
Noonan’s Honda Classic Betting Targets
Aaron Wise
If you’re new around here, just know that I need this. I’ve backed Aaron Wise many, many, many times over the past two seasons, believing that his talent will eventually get him over the proverbial hump and into the winner’s circle on Sunday at some point. This is the ideal spot for him to do that, considering his position in the field. Wise ranks fourth in this field in strokes gained total per round over the past six months, and his recent short-game improvements are part of why I remain bullish on him. It was the missing element to his game, but you can argue it’s now his strength. When it all lines up, as it did at the Memorial last year when he was clipped by Billy Horschel’s hot putter, he can contend anywhere.
Over his past 50 rounds, he ranks inside the top ten in this field in Par-4 scoring, scrambling, and bogey avoidance, all key metrics for me this week. I would’ve paid 20, so I’m happy that 25 and 27s were available.
Jhonattan Vegas
A poor weekend at Riviera helped us get a better number on Jhonattan Vegas than I anticipated. Considering how well his ball striking looked on Thursday and Friday, I thought we’d be looking at 28/1 to 30/1 at open. Thankfully, his putting was so terrible that 45s were out there briefly on Monday morning, and I scooped that up right away.
Vegas hasn’t played a lot of golf over the past six months, but he’s been gaining strokes consistently throughout the bag of late before making an inevitable mess on the greens. The good news is that Bermuda grass is his preferred putting surface, and PGA National is his preferred putting event. Shockingly, Vegas has gained strokes putting here in three of his past four starts and five of his past eight. That might not seem like an earth-shattering performance on the greens, but for context, Vegas has lost strokes putting in 11 of his past 12 starts. He clearly likes it here, and a field-average putting week paired with ball-striking skills puts him squarely in contention this week.
Lee Hodges
A poor third round under the bring lights at Riviera undid a solid start to Lee Hodge’s week at the Genesis, but the underlying performance is encouraging. Hodges finished the week T18, gaining strokes across the board, and he’s checking a lot of the statistical benchmarks for me this week.
Hodges missed five straight cuts before last week’s T18, but his game logs show a streaky player capable of piecing together a few strong showings when he’s in form. He ranks second in the entire field over the past 50 rounds for me in my weekly statistical model, finishing in the top ten in ball-striking, 175-200 yard proximity, SG: APP, and bogey avoidance. He finished T9 here last year in his first run through PGA National, so he’s returning to a place where he’s done well previously and hopefully brings some of last week’s form along with him.
- To Win: 55/1 on Caesars
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
FanDuel’s golf bookmaker is asleep at the wheel this week. They didn’t show outright odds until Tuesday, and as of this writing, they don’t have any Top 40 bets available.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.