My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
Key Stats Considered
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.
SG: Approach
Pretty much every course can be described as a second-shot course, but PGA National may just be the epitome of the phrase. In players who finished top five historically at this tournament, approach has been double the importance of tee shots and triple the importance of around-the-green shots.
| 1. Russell Knox |
| 2. Nick Hardy |
| 3. Robby Shelton |
| 4. Erik Van Rooyen |
| 5. Ben Martin |
| 6. Ben Griffin |
| 7. Satoshi Kodaira |
| 8. Sepp Straka |
| 9. Sam Ryder |
| 10. Davis Riley |
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Good Drives Gained
Of any off-the-tee statistic, good drives seem to be the most common indicator of success at Honda. Distance and fairways are helpful, but there has been a slew of high finishers that haven’t hit the ball far or straight. Good drives basically measures drives that allowed players to hit a green in regulation afterward. It could be drives that landed in the fairway or fringe, but not in the second cut or in a hazard/penalty area.
| 1. Aaron Rai |
| 2. Justin Suh |
| 3. Cam Percy |
| 4. Dylan Wu |
| 5. Hayden Buckley |
| 6. Ryan Armour |
| 7. Michael Kim |
| 8. Will Gordon |
| 9. Matt Kuchar |
| 10. Adam Long |
GIRs Gained
As I mentioned above, approach shots are extra important this week. On average, birdie putts have dropped from 10+ feet at a higher rate at PGA National; the hard part is hitting the greens in regulation. Targeting players who can gain GIRs on difficult courses makes sense.
| 1. Sungjae Im |
| 2. Shane Lowry |
| 3. Adam Schenk |
| 4. Will Gordon |
| 5. Billy Horschel |
| 6. Russell Knox |
| 7. Cam Percy |
| 8. Hayden Buckley |
| 9. Brandon Wu |
| 10. Lanto Griffin |
Proximity: 175-200 yards
More than one-quarter of the approaches hit at PGA National historically come from this range, which is 8% more than tour average. Four of the hardest holes at PGA National are two Par 3s from this range and two long Par 4s that usually leave 175-200 in on the second shot.
| 1. Vaughn Taylor |
| 2. Jonathan Byrd |
| 3. Callum Tarren |
| 4. Taylor Pendrith |
| 5. Zac Blair |
| 6. Fabian Gomez |
| 7. Davis Riley |
| 8. Satoshi Kodaira |
| 9. Scott Brown |
| 10. Robert Garrigus |
Proximity: 150-175 yards
About 23% of approach shots have come from this distance historically, which is 3% more than the tour average. Between this range and 175-200, we are covering half the approach shots for most players.
| 1. Doc Redman |
| 2. Carl Yuan |
| 3. Danny Lee |
| 4. Ryan Armour |
| 5. Robby Shelton |
| 6. Satoshi Kodaira |
| 7. Charley Hoffman |
| 8. Greyson Sigg |
| 9. JT Poston |
| 10. Ryan Moore |
Par 3 Scoring
It is extremely atypical that the Par 3s account for the most strokes gained on a course, but they do at PGA National. Targeting players that are adept at scoring, or at least not imploding on Par 3s is crucial.
| 1. Chesson Hadley |
| 2. Denny McCarthy |
| 3. Sungjae Im |
| 4. Greyson Sigg |
| 5. Callum Tarren |
| 6. Thomas Detry |
| 7. Billy Horschel |
| 8. Nick Hardy |
| 9. Aaron Baddeley |
| 10. Ben Taylor |
Lightning Fast Bermuda Putting
A return to the right side of the country brings about a change in green complexes. Bermuda grass is common to the Florida swing and is all about the way the grain is growing. Some players who are used to this green type often have more success putting because of its intricacies. Webb Simpson is someone who should immediately come to mind as a very good Bermuda putter.
| 1. Chesson Hadley |
| 2. Brian Gay |
| 3. Ben Taylor |
| 4. Adam Long |
| 5. Zach Johnson |
| 6. Denny McCarthy |
| 7. Greg Chalmers |
| 8. Lanto Griffin |
| 9. Sepp Straka |
| 10. Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
Current Form
The golfers playing the best at the moment. Though this is important and weighted a decent amount in the model, the move from the west coast to the east coast can often breathe life into certain guys who needed a change. While form is important, I don’t mind ignoring it if someone has great history or fit this week.
| 1. Sungjae Im |
| 2. Chris Kirk |
| 3. Joseph Bramlett |
| 4. Denny McCarthy |
| 5. Matt Kuchar |
| 6. Sam Ryder |
| 7. Benn Griffin |
| 8. Garrick Higgo |
| 9. Peter Malnati |
| 10. Thomas Detry |
Horse for the Course
The golfers who have gained the most strokes at PGA National on average.
| 1. Ben An |
| 2. Luke Donald |
| 3. Shane Lowry |
| 4. Sepp Straka |
| 5. Sungjae Im |
| 6. Jason Dufner |
| 7. Harris English |
| 8. Aaron Wise |
| 9. Cam Davis |
| 10. Matt Kuchar |
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
| 1. Joseph Bramlett |
| 2. Ben Griffin |
| 3. Robby Shelton |
| 4. Nick Hardy |
| 5. Dylan Wu |
Fading
| 1. Mark Hubbard |
| 2. Erik Van Rooyen |
| 3. Alex Noren |
| 4. Cam Davis |
| 5. Taylor Pendrith |
Stat Model Ranking
| 1. Sungjae Im – The class of the field by a mile, Sungjae rates out top five in every time period from 12-50 rounds played. He’s first in overall form, first in difficult GIRs gained, and fifth in strokes gained at PGA National. |
| 2. Danny Lee – rates out incredibly well in course fit and has made two consecutive cuts at the Honda. He’s top 30 in every stat category, highlighted by GIRs Gained on difficult courses (14th) and 150-175 proximity (5th). **May be joining LIV this week** |
| 3. Hayden Buckley – ranks inside the top 25 in each round range, eighth in difficult to hit greens, 13th in form. He’s a player that has a great shot at contending if he can have a spike putting week. |
| 4. Greyson Sigg |
| 5. Joseph Bramlett – 13th in approach, 16th in good drives, inside the top 25 for both proximity ranges, third in form. Looked really good in his last two events, especially on approach, as he finished 7th at Pebble and 13th at Torrey. |
| 6. Robby Shelton |
| 7. Nick Hardy |
| 8. Russell Knox |
| 9. Satoshi Kodaira – Not someone who is playing particularly well at the moment, but really pops in course fit. He is 13th in good drives, 9th in both proximity distances, 7th in approach. |
| 10. Ben Griffin |
| 11. Ryan Armour |
| 12. Erik Van Rooyen |
| 13. Lanto Griffin – Seemingly has the best one-two punch for this course being the only player who rates inside the top ten for difficult GIRs gained and fast bermuda putting. |
| 14. Cam Percy |
| 15. Alex Noren |
| 16. Vaughn Taylor |
| 17. Callum Tarren |
| 18. JT Poston – Struggled in his last two events, but as I mentioned above I don’t mind ignoring form in certain cases and this is one. He did play well before the two missed cuts and we return to his preferred putting surface of Bermuda |
| 19. Erik Barnes |
| 20. Thomas Detry – Six straight top 40s, excellent fast bermuda putter, 6th on par 3s, and 21st in good drives. In a weak field, Detry has the chance to contend. |
| 21. Andrew Kozan |
| 22. Sepp Straka – Sepp is 8th in approach, 9th in putting and obviously has good course history winning the event last year. He’s made a few cuts and is headed in the right direction. |
| 23. Carl Yuan – a potential sleeper that ranks first in 150-175 proximity, 16th in 175-200 proximity, and 14th in difficult to hit GIRs |
| 24. Austin Eckroat |
| 25. Shane Lowry – Lowry gets dinged because he hasn’t played much in 2023 with one of those tournaments being a complete flop in Phoenix. However, he rates out really well long term, he’s 2nd in difficult GIRs gained and 11th in approach. Lowry is also, pretty clearly, the second best player in this field. |
| 26. Lee Hodges |
| 27. Charley Hoffman |
| 28. Ben Taylor |
| 29. Chris Kirk |
| 30. Jhonattan Vegas – 22nd in form and 12th in difficult GIRs gained. Rates out solidly overall, but needs a great putting week which is a bit uncharacteristic for him. |
| 31. Billy Horschel |
| 32. Chesson Hadley – Rates out first in fast bermuda putting, eighth in long-term course fit. This is an instance where we’d have to ignore current form and hope that the long-term fit and putting carries Hadley. He makes more sense as a FRL type play. |
| 33. Mark Hubbard |
| 34. Ryan Moore |
| 35. Adam Svensson |
| 36. Kevin Roy |
| 37. Davis Riley – Riley is a change of scenery candidate. He’s missed three straight cuts, but heads back to SEC country where he’s much more comfortable. He is a plus putter on bermuda and is top ten in approach, 7th in the 175-200 range, and 17th in difficult GIRs. |
| 38. Cam Davis |
| 39. Justin Suh |
| 40. Will Gordon |
| 41. Ben Martin – Fifth in approach, 19th from the 175-200 range, and top 20 in short-term course fit. He’s coming off a 13th at Pebble. Combined that with a pretty solid course fit and he’s a solid sleeper candidate at the Honda |
| 42. Patrick Rodgers |
| 43. Matt Kuchar |
| 44. Taylor Pendrith |
| 45. Michael Kim |
| 46. Austin Cook |
| 47. Doc Redman |
| 48. Aaron Baddeley |
| 49. Denny McCarthy – Had a massive final round at Riviera. Rates out well in his current form and fast bermuda putting. Overall the specs of the course don’t seem to suit him well. |
| 50. Brandon Wu |