After an entertaining West Coast Swing full of elite fields, the PGA Tour journeys east for the Honda Classic and what feels like a letdown with the start of the Florida Swing. The Champion course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida is a Par-70 ranked as the most difficult annual course on Tour by a good margin, averaging 1.53 shots over par the last five years. It has been the toughest non-major course on the PGA Tour in seven of the past 10 seasons.
With fewer trees than other parkland courses and only seven miles off the Atlantic coast, PGA National is exposed to gusty conditions as winds often affect this event and make scoring that much more difficult. Add in narrow fairways, firm greens, and water everywhere you turn and it is one of the toughest tee-to-green tests on the Tour.
PGA National is not an easy introduction to the Florida Swing. Every golfer in the field knows they are going to be tested to their limit. The average winning score over the past 13 years has been 9-under par. The winner has either been a favorite or a longshot in 11 of the past 13 years. Part of the reason for the disparity in winners is that the Honda Classic is one of the most volatile events on the Tour.
Famous for its 15 holes with water danger. PGA National will favor golfers with a balance of short game and ball-striking who can avoid penalty areas, scramble for pars and manage any windy conditions. It plays similarly to a major tournament and favors those players who demonstrate patience. As past champion, Keith Mitchell remarked, “You’ve got to stay so patient. A lot of times par is a good score. I don’t think you can play aggressively out here. If you do, I think it will eat you because this golf course is tough.”
Success here will also depend highly upon the player’s ability to navigate the closing stretch of intimidating holes, which is famously known as the “Bear Trap”. The 15th and 17th holes are long par-3s over water, while the 16th is a forced layup to another approach shot over water.
The Field
This year’s tournament is sandwiched between two elevated events – the Genesis Invitational last week and the Arnold Palmer Invitational next week. Even though this event has not drawn the deepest of fields in the past, we have seen numerous high-profile winners including Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Russell Henley, and Rory McIlroy.
The field for this year’s Honda Classic is set at 144 golfers and is as weak as it’s ever been with only eight of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings in attendance. Despite being played in their backyard, many of the top golfers are taking the week off to rest for next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. As is typical, the top 65 and ties make it through the cutline and into the weekend. Some of the pre-tournament favorites include Sungjae Im, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, Aaron Wise, Alex Noren, Min Woo Lee, J.T. Poston, and last year’s defending champion, Sepp Straka.
2023 Honda Classic Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Weak Field/Difficult Courses
- SG: High Water Danger/Double Bogey Courses
- SG: Florida
The Honda Classic and PGA National pick up right where Riviera Country Club left off last week with another stern test of golf. One huge difference is that we go from a course with not a single water hazard hole to one with water danger on 15 holes. At Riviera, you could get away with a bit of wildness off the tee or on approach. At PGA National, there will be no such luxury.
With “water mines” everywhere on the course, all it takes is a couple of poor shots to completely derail a round. Consistent ball-strikers with mid-to-long irons who are not erratic off the tee are paramount in building any lineup or betting card this week. Furthermore, I will be focusing on players who have a strong record of avoiding, not just bogeys, but double bogeys as well.
My “Safety” model is of the utmost importance this week as it measures past performance in many of the areas in which PGA National is at its toughest. For example, how have players in the field performed on other courses that have a high number of both water danger holes and double bogeys?
I also analyzed who, historically, tends to elevate their game in a tournament that lacks star power but yet is played on a difficult course. This week’s Honda Classic is a weak-field event played on the toughest non-major course on Tour.
With trouble lurking everywhere, players need to be in control of their swing heading into this event. I will also definitely target players who are in good form with good ball-striking results over the past few weeks. In my model, I also targeted par 4 scoring and Strokes Gained on Florida courses since 2019. With so many players missing greens, scrambling and putting on these grainy Bermuda surfaces will also be vitally important.
Finally, in the past, we have seen a mix of both favorites and deep longshots raise the trophy on Sunday. Golf is already perhaps the most volatile sport to begin with. Add in the treacherous combination of wind, water, and a weak field – and we could see carnage this week. Nobody should be surprised if multiple favorites miss the cut and a player longer than 100-1 wins this event. Honestly, it’s probably a good week to lighten the betting card up a bit because anything can happen.
Weather Forecast – Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Most Important Stats For Success at the Honda Classic
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Bogey/Double Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
- SG: Tough Scoring Courses
- Par 4 Scoring
- Course History PGA National/comp courses
- Proximity 125-200 yds
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- SG: OTT
- 3-putt Avoidance
The Honda Classic Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Aaron Wise +2700 (currently +2500)
One of my breakout players for the year, Wise is in a perfect situation this week to take advantage of a weaker field and win his second career PGA Tour event. He ranks third in the field in tee-to-green over the past year, is second in the Safety model, third in the Core 4, and is the best player on “tough scoring” courses. Most importantly he loves playing in Florida on his favored Bermuda surface. He is also one of the most improved putters on Tour. With the confidence of having past success at PGA National and excelling on “water danger” courses he is my most confident outright of the week.
(0.88u) FanDuel
Chris Kirk +3300
Another player that excels on the Florida Swing is Chris Kirk. He also enters with excellent short-term form with multiple top-3 finishes in the last month. With most players having to club down off the tee this week, he will be on a more level playing field distance-wise. He is comfortable here with consecutive top-25s. From ball-striking to his short game, he has no weaknesses and has a great chance to break his win drought in this type of event.
(0.72u) DraftKings
Billy Horschel +3500 (currently +2800)
Yes, Horschel has struggled lately as he works through some swing changes, but the Florida native loves his home-state courses. He is the second-best player in the field on Florida tracks and has four top-16s here since 2016. If he can avoid the water on approach, his short game will allow him to grind out pars and the occasional birdie which is all that’s needed to succeed at PGA National.
(0.68u) DraftKings
Taylor Pendrith +4000 (currently +3500)
The more research I do on Pendrith, the more evidence I see that he excels above his baseline on shorter, less-than-driver courses. For example, he finished 7th at Pebble Beach, 15th at RSM, 13th at Wyndham, 13th at The PLAYERS, and was 25th in his first appearance here last year. One of the most talented players in the field, he has gained the most strokes on water-heavy courses since 2020.
(0.60u) BetMGM
Ben Griffin +8000 (currently +6000)
The books are just not adjusting to the talent that is Ben Griffin. He ranks 10th overall in my model yet is way down the betting card. The North Carolina native grew up on this type of all-Bermuda course similar to PGA National. Other than one missed cut at Pebble Beach he has consistently finished inside the top-30 of events over the past few months. That includes two top-5 finishes at the Wyndham and in Bermuda. His pinpoint accuracy on approach should allow him to separate from the field, and his short-game has been remarkably consistent as well which should help him in avoiding bogeys this week.
(0.30u) BetRivers
Other Outrights
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Shane Lowry +100 (1.2u) – DraftKings
- Aaron Wise +138 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Chris Kirk +160 (1u) – DraftKings
- Billy Horschel +165 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – BetRivers
- Taylor Pendrith -110 (1.2u)
- Will Gordon +138 (1u)
- Ben Griffin +138 (1u)
Top 40 – FanDuel
- Thomas Detry -120 (1.2u)
- Lee Hodges+105 (1.1u)
- Sepp Straka +110 (1.1u)
- Adam Svensson +120 (1.2u)
- Davis Riley +145 (1u)
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Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images