After another Scottie Scheffler victory at TPC Scottsdale, the Tour heads back to California for the Genesis Invitational and the final event of the West Coast Swing. Built in 1926 in the Santa Monica Mountain Canyon just outside of Los Angeles, Riviera Country Club remains one of America’s iconic golf courses.
Not only is it iconic, but Riviera is always in the conversation among the best-designed golf courses in America. Even as it approaches its 100-year birthday, most experts believe that it doesn’t have any weak holes. The scope and size of the course don’t really stand out, but it forces players to execute and commit to every shot in their bag. It is a challenging layout that forces golfers to make strategic decisions. Designed and built in 1926 by George C. Thomas, Jr., it opened as the Los Angeles Athletic Club Golf Course and has been a fixture on the PGA Tour since 1973. The routing is near-perfect as Thomas utilized all the available natural features of the terrain in creating his masterpiece.
Riviera features tight driving corridors, erratic Kikuyu rough, and speedy greens with subtle undulations. It tests all aspects of a golfer’s game and requires players to hit specific areas on both fairways and greens in order to maximize their scoring opportunities. Being out of position creates extreme pressure to save par because the course is relentless. Shot-makers who can position themselves off the tee, who can shape the ball in both directions, and scramble for par around these treacherous greens will have the most success.
Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods, two of the greatest golfers of all time never managed to win at Riviera. It has the universal admiration of Tour pros because it’s tough but fair. Speaking on the challenge that the course presents, Patrick Cantlay summed it up best. “The greens aren’t overly firm and it’s not crazy long. The golf course always defends itself. There are no tricks. There’s no water on the whole golf course. There’s no real goofiness. I just think, all in all, it’s just the best test that we play.”
The Field
We go from one star-studded elevated event to another at the Genesis Invitational. It was already a “major-style” field as every single eligible PGA Tour golfer in the top 60 of the OWGR has committed to play with the exception of Aaron Wise and Chris Kirk. But on Friday, the ante was upped as we learned that golf’s biggest star, Tiger Woods, is playing as well. Woods, the tournament host, will be making his first official PGA TOUR start since last July. The 82-time PGA TOUR winner will headline a stacked field competing for 550 FedExCup points and a $20 million purse.
Since it is an “Invitational”, the field is usually capped at 120 players. But for this year, the field was expanded from the original size because each player that is defined as eligible by the tournament regulations is guaranteed a spot in the field. In other words, because everybody wants to play this elevated event, everyone inside the number gets in.
Withdraws will not be replaced by alternates unless the total number of entrants drops below 120. With Kirk, Brendan Steele, Davis Riley, Maverick McNealy, and Webb Simpson already withdrawing, the field currently sits at 129. Like last week, the cut line remains the top 65 and ties advancing to play the weekend. The cut line has been over par here every single year over the past decade.
2023 Genesis Invitational Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Strong Fields
- SG: Difficult Scoring Conditions
- SG: West Coast
This week’s Genesis Invitational is the third “elevated” event in this initial year of the “new” PGA Tour season. We have another field loaded with the best players in the world. While we have seen mid-range and longshot types have great success at Riviera Country Club in the past, from a betting perspective, chances are very high that the pattern of favorites winning most of these events (as they have done over the past year) will continue. It also appears that the elite players will continue to fill the top 10 and top 20 on the leaderboard as well. It has become very hard to find true value in the finish position market in this new world of PGA Tour golf.
My betting selection this week has been focused on three key metrics: SG: Approach, SG: ARG/Scrambling and past SG on other difficult scoring courses. With positive short-game play around these tough green complexes being so vital this week, I am not selecting anyone who struggles with the exception of those who have pinpoint accuracy on approach. Viktor Hovland would be an example of this. He is one of the best long-iron players in the world and does not miss many greens. I can overlook his short-game weakness for that reason.
Taking a look at recent winners like Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, and Dustin Johnson shows that distance definitely plays here. Another argument to favor distance over accuracy is that if most golfers are missing the fairway and playing their approach shots out of the rough, you want the players hitting higher lofted clubs like wedges and short irons into these “bouncy” greens to keep the ball closer to the pins. Along with distance, Good Drive % is another important stat to use this week in determining which players commonly hit greens out of the rough.
One of the unique rankings in the model this week is how players have performed on other similar courses that have both a strong field and difficult scoring conditions. I think that is a very important piece of data this week because it combines those two factors together. And let’s face it, there are only a handful of players that raise their game in these types of events. As you can imagine, most players perform below their baseline when things get tougher against better competition.
Finally, let me share one key piece of information that has helped me have success on my finish position bets. It’s very basic, but I have been analyzing past player course history and considering a player’s typical past finish position. This week, for example, Adam Scott has played Riviera every year since 2016. He has finished inside the top 40 each time except once. So I feel very comfortable taking him for a Top 40 bet at plus money (+105). He has also finished in the top 11 five times. The data shows you could make the case to get more aggressive and take him Top 20 at +250.
Weather Forecast – Pacific Palisades, California
Most Important Stats For Success at the Genesis Invitational
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- SG: ARG
- Driving Distance
- Scrambling on Poa
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drive %
- Course History
- Par 4: 400-500 yds
- Proximity 150-200 yds
- Par 5 Scoring
The Genesis Invitational Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Xander Schauffele +1600
Schauffele’s consistency and all-around skills which are a necessity at a course like Riviera are what hooked me into playing him as my top overall outright selection this week. He gained an amazing 10 strokes ball-striking last week in Phoenix and has only lost strokes once in that area since March of 2022. He has finishes of 3-13-10 to start the year and had the lead last week until faltering down the stretch. He has five career top-25s here and is a great pivot off Rahm and McIlroy in the outright market.
(1.5u) DraftKings
Patrick Cantlay +3000 (currently +2600)
Coming off a missed cut, Cantlay remains very live to win this week. One of the best players in the world, both tee-to-green and putting on Poa surfaces, he ranks in the top 20 across the board in each of the strokes gained categories. Similar to Schauffele, he doesn’t have any weakness and has the innate ability to scramble for par when a bogey seems likely. He has the fourth-best course history here and ranks third in my Scoring model and 10th in my Safety model.
(0.80u) FanDuel
Matt Fitzpatrick +4500 (currently +4000)
Fitzpatrick is one of the best players in the world on tough-scoring courses. While struggling a bit recently, last year’s U.S. Open champion remains rock solid off the tee and combines that with one of the best short games in the world. His fifth-place finish here at Riviera in 2021 highlights his potential for upside this week.
(0.53u) BetRivers
Hideki Matsuyama +5000
In a week where performance around the greens matters more than most, Matsuyama is one of the best chippers in the world. His wildness off the tee is mitigated by the fact that Riviera doesn’t have any hazards to worry about. That being said he has gained over four strokes off the tee over the last two weeks. His putting has been nothing short of amazing as he has gained with the flat stick in seven of his last eight measured rounds. His game appears to be peaking, and at 50-1, I’m on board
(0.48u) BetRivers
Adam Scott +7000 (currently +6000)
Scott has been the ultimate course horse at Riviera with two wins to his name, including just three years ago. He has had five top-11s here since 2016. He absolutely comes to life on these challenging greens where he has gained a staggering 24.6 strokes putting in his last seven trips here.
(0.34u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy +110 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 20
- Xander Schauffele -120 (1.3u) – BetRivers
- Justin Thomas -120 (1.3u) – BetRivers
- Collin Morikawa +110 (1.1u) – BetRivers
- Patrick Cantlay +115 (1u) – FanDuel
- Max Homa +125 (1u) – FanDuel
Top 30 – FanDuel
- Viktor Hovland -115 (1.2u)
- Matt Fitzpatrick -105 (1.1u)
- Jordan Spieth +115 (1u)
Top 40
- Hideki Matsuyama -110 (1.3u) DraftKings
- Taylor Montgomery -110 (1.2u) FanDuel
- Tom Kim -105 (1.2u) DraftKings
- Adam Scott +105 (1.3u) FanDuel
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Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images