Strategy
We have another week with a loaded field of elite names to choose from here at the Genesis Invitational. The strategy this week is much more nuanced because it is a completely different course. Riviera will play much more difficult with tougher greens and more bogeys compared to TPC Scottsdale. As we saw we Scottie Scheffler last week, the cream always tends to rise to the top in these events. The good news this week, depending on how you look at it, is that pricing is very soft. You can easily fit five players with decent win equity into your lineup. Even so, like last week with Nick Taylor, it will still be important to land on the right value players with either proven course history or trending all-around form.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bBecause the $6K, and even parts of the $7K range, are relatively weak thanks to many players with poor course history and cold incoming form, I will be taking a more balanced approach this week. One reason that is a decent contrarian option is because of how stacked the $8K range is. Between Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Tom Kim, Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth – you could build your entire lineup from this range and actually feel good with it. Will Zalatoris is in this range as well, but after hearing injury whispers I will be very underweight on him in my lineup construction. You can also use this range to work an expensive Jon Rahm into your lineup followed by a couple of the value plays I have listed below.
2023 Genesis Invitational Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Strong Fields
- SG: Difficult Scoring Conditions
- SG: West Coast
When building my player pool this week I have been focused on three key metrics: SG: Approach, SG: ARG/Scrambling, and past SG on other difficult scoring courses. With positive short-game play around these tough green complexes being so vital this week, I am not selecting anyone who struggles with the exception of those who have pinpoint accuracy on approach. Viktor Hovland would be an example of this. He is one of the best long-iron players in the world and does not miss many greens. I can overlook his short-game weakness for that reason.
Taking a look at recent winners like Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, and Dustin Johnson shows that distance definitely plays here. Another argument to favor distance over accuracy is that if most golfers are missing the fairway and playing their approach shots out of the rough, you want the players hitting higher lofted clubs like wedges and short irons into these “bouncy” greens to keep the ball closer to the pins. Along with distance, Good Drive % is another important stat to use this week in determining which players commonly hit greens out of the rough.
One of the unique rankings in the model this week is how players have performed on other similar courses that have both a strong field and difficult scoring conditions. I think that is a very important piece of data this week because it combines those two factors together. And let’s face it, there are only a handful of players that raise their game in these types of events. As you can imagine, most players perform below their baseline when things get tougher against better competition.
Finally, there are numerous players (some highly owned) that I am completely fading this week solely because they have struggled in previous appearances at Riviera. You can’t play everyone, and this provides a logical way to narrow down my player pool. This group of players includes: Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power, Corey Conners, Brian Harman, and J.J. Spaun.
Weather Forecast – Pacific Palisades, California
Most Important Stats For Success at the Genesis Invitational
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- SG: ARG
- Driving Distance
- Scrambling on Poa
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drive %
- Course History
- Par 4: 400-500 yds
- Proximity 150-200 yds
- Par 5 Scoring
Genesis Invitational – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images