This week, the best golfers in the world make the last stop on their west coast swing in Pacific Palisades at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. A few years ago, this became Tiger Wood’s Invitational event, and as you likely know by now, this also marks the first time Tiger’s teed it up for an official Tour event since last summer’s Open Championship.
Riviera is a classic course that tests a golfer’s all-around game. It often ranks as one of the 10-12 most difficult courses on Tour each season and features narrow fairways off the tee, with second-shot proximity to the hole more difficult here than your average Tour stop. Familiarity with the fast and firm greens is crucial, and around the green skills come into play more this week than most. A successful week will include scoring on the Par-5s and surviving the Par-4s whenever possible.
Riviera and San Diego’s Torrey Pines, host of the Farmers Insurance Open just a few weeks back, are the only courses on Tour that feature poa annua greens and Kikuyu fairways and rough, making Torrey a strong corollary course when capping this week. The poa/Kikuya combination is native to both southern California and Australia, and past leaderboards at Riviera have been littered with golfers that call either place home. There’s also a notable leaderboard crossover between Riviera and Augusta National, which makes sense considering the commonalities around elevation changes and the shot-shaping skills required to win at both places.
Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I’d prefer to lean on as much data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat, so let’s work with what we have. For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about :
Overall, there are very few statistical categories at Riviera that are easier than the Tour average. With the second-lowest Driving Accuracy/GIR% combo, it is a true test of all-around golf. An amazing dichotomy that shows the difficulty of the course is that it has the second largest greens on Tour yet also has the toughest overall GIR rate at 56.7%. And because of the intricacies of the course, it usually takes years of experience for most players to master. 15 of the last 17 winners had played in at least four previous Genesis Invitationals, and DataGolf lists Riviera as having the 8th “stickiest” course history correlation.
A staggering 75% of approach shots come from 150+ yards, with 47% coming between 150-200. Both are among the highest percentages on Tour. Even though the greens are huge in size, the GIR rate is only 56.7%. Along with firm greens that repel shots, poor drives off the tee lead to approach shots from bunkers or from locations that can be partially obstructed by trees. The greens also have sharp edges that lead to run-off areas if players get too aggressive on approach. Taking the conservative route and aiming for the correct tier or middle of the green is generally the best strategic play.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s Genesis Invitational Betting Targets
Collin Morikawa
I’m going back to well on Collin Morikawa since I’m pot-committed at this point. A missed cut at the Waste Management isn’t going to keep me off of him here, and a lot of what was behind that handicap still applies. Honestly, this was always my preferred spot of the two for Morikawa, but he was playing too well to ignore going into the WM, so he deserved my backing.
Morikawa is the best ball striker on Tour, ranking first in this loaded field over his past 100 rounds or, if you prefer a more recent sample, the past six months (36 rounds played). The old adage of ‘when he puts well, he wins’ has fallen short so far this season, but he’s too good to keep knocking on the door without closing. Unfortunately, the putter let him down in the desert, but now back on poa, I’m back in on the young LA native to close this out after his runner-up finish at last year’s event.
Will Zalatoris
The last time we saw Will Zalatoris was his disappointing wind-aided second round at Torrey Pines. I’m not putting much stock into that, and I’ll happily back Zalatoris at next year’s Farmers as well. At this point, Zalatoris is a hard name for me to cross off when the setup calls for a major championship style of play since he’s flirted with the top of the leaderboard in nearly every major in the past two seasons.
Zalatoris’s best finishes have come on difficult courses when scoring conditions are tough, ball striking is at a premium, and the field is loaded. He’s still in the infant stages of his career, so the sample is relatively small, but he’s shown an affinity for these events and courses. Over the past calendar year, he has led the Tour in strokes gained from the key 150-200 yards mark. When your most bankable skill is what matters the most this week, it’s hard to avoid him when he’s north of 30 on the betting board.
Jason Day
Jason Day’s run of outstanding play continued last week with a solo fifth-place finish at the Waste Management. Day’s finished inside the top 21 in seven of his past eight starts and is showing glimpses of his former best-in-the-world form. His course history at Riviera is unimpressive, but he hasn’t played here a ton, so I’m not worried about that. He does love putting on poa, and we’ve seen great finishes for the 35-year-old Aussie at both Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach over the years.
On top of the Australia narrative, Day checks a lot of other boxes for me this week. Over the past 36 rounds, Day ranks inside the top ten in this field in SG: T2G, Good Drive%, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, and Proximity from 150-175 yards. This is an impressive field to carry around that type of relative form against, so I’m backing him at 50/1 and feel extremely confident in another top-20 finish.
Adam Scott
Another Aussie with great history at Torrey Pines and Augusta National, Adam Scott has also had his fair share of success here at Riviera as well. Scott has won this event twice and has seven top-ten finishes here, including three of the past four years. A quick glance at his baseline strokes gained profile shows that he isn’t far off from “Peak Adam Scott,” even though he’s 42 years old now. He can still hit it a mile, and his on-and-around-the-green game has improved over the years.
He hasn’t played since Hawaii, but he was ahead of the curve years ago, stating that only a handful of events matter each year, so I expect we’ll see him at all the designated events moving forward.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
Max Homa and Keegan Bradley – T40 (+185)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
Max Homa was the toughest golfer to leave off of my outright card this week. Keegan Bradley made the card at 75/1, and I really love his form, fit, and course history here, and I would be very surprised if he and Homa were not in contention this week.
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