The PGA Tour heads back to the Lone Star State for the AT&T Byron Nelson and one final tune-up before the PGA Championship. Located within the community of Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas, TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the third consecutive year. The event dates back to 1944, and in recent years has moved all over the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex with both Trinity Forest and the TPC Four Seasons Resort also hosting.
Featuring easy scoring conditions, immaculate turf, few hazards, wide open fairways, and large receptive greens, TPC Craig Ranch is a proto-typical TPC course. It certainly fits the eyes of K.H. Lee who has won this event in both years in which the tournament was held here. With winning scores of 25 and 26-under par, it is a birdie-makers paradise that inevitably boils down to a putting contest. Along with “spike putting” ability, long-iron/wood approach play is the key “separator” when determining golfers to target this week.
The Field
Traditionally, the Byron Nelson has typically had a weak strength of field. That changed last year as numerous elite players participated with the following week’s PGA Championship only 200 miles to the north in Oklahoma. This year’s field is surprisingly strong as well with many players competing this week in preparation for next week’s major at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. For many lesser-ranked players, it represents their last chance to qualify for Oak Hill by winning this tournament.
Overall, 12 of the top 50 and 25 of the top 90 in the OWGR will be in attendance at TPC Craig Ranch including Texas residents world No. 2 Scottie Scheffler and No. 19 Tom Kim. Hometown star and world No. 10 Jordan Spieth withdrew on Monday with a wrist injury. K.H. Lee also returns to defend his consecutive titles and looks to join the nine other PGA Tour players since World War II who have won the same event three straight years. Other notables in the top 50 include Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Hoge, Jason Day, Seamus Power, Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott, and Aaron Wise.
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson – Betting Narratives and Strategies
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Weak Fields
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Driver Heavy Courses
- SG: Wind 15+
With Jordan Spieth withdrawing early in the week along with a dearth of other intriguing options at the top of the betting board, Scottie Scheffler sits alone on top at this week’s Byron Nelson. I believe it’s fair to say that even the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, and Hideki Matsuyama sit at least a few tiers below him.
Based on my research and a simple “eye test”, none of those three players below Scheffler (I’ll throw Adam Scott in there as well) fits the course profile or style of play of an all-out birdie fest that will be seen this week. Each of those players tend to thrive more in lower-scoring events with tougher fields. Their game is not built to win a 25-under putting contest. That is why I hesitate to even wager a top-10/top-20 in any of them.
I just think it’s very hard for the elite players to change their mindset and style of play. The Hattons and Scotts of the world rarely play these events, where a guy like Taylor Montgomery and other mid-tier golfers play in these low-scoring weak fields half of the time. And so many of the younger, lower-tier golfers were playing in these types of shootouts very recently on the Korn Ferry Tour.
That being said, Scheffler to win at +350 isn’t a wager that is happening either, so for me this week, my outrights are more in the 40-70 range as I got some great early numbers before all of the withdrawals. This would include players like Tom Hoge, Davis Riley, Taylor Montgomery, Min Woo Lee, and Seamus Power. Tom Kim at +2800 was my only pick near the top of the board. His increased distance gains off the tee have me very excited about where his game is headed.
As for what it takes to have success at TPC Craig Ranch this week, players will face a lengthy course with wide fairways that don’t offer many hazards off the tee. The greens are large and very simple on which to putt. As was the case for the first two events here, typically, easy-scoring courses that pose little threat off the tee are transformed into target practice on approach, followed by a putting contest. Birdie or Better %, par-5 scoring, average proximity to the hole, and past success in other “Weak Field, Easy Scoring” events are other data points that are important this week and are included in the final model posted below.
On approach, 36.4% of shots have come from 200+ yards. That is 10% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only is the Greens in Regulation rate 5% easier than average but the GIR rate when missing the fairway is one of the highest on Tour at 59% With the 12th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers are a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty.
Because it is so easy to gain strokes off the tee, this becomes an ultimate second-shot course. Overall, TPC Craig Ranch was the 3rd easiest course to gain strokes on approach in 2021. In 2021, the top eight players in SG: Approach finished within the top-17 on the leaderboard. And last year, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top-17 overall.
Similar to around-the-green play, putting on these smooth bentgrass greens was the third easiest to gain strokes on Tour. Everything from one-putt percentage to three-putt avoidance ranks as very easy. With so many players hitting greens at a high rate this will ultimately turn into a putting contest. While putting is uncomplicated here, targeting players who have the ability to get streaky hot with their flat stick, especially on bentgrass greens, is something to strongly consider.
Most Important Stats For Success at the AT&T Byron Nelson
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Birdie or Better %
- Proximity 200+
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Par 4 Scoring 450+
- Par 5 Scoring
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive %
- SG: Long/Easy Scoring Courses
- SG: Weak Field Events
Weather Forecast – McKinney, Texas
The AT&T Byron Nelson Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Tom Kim +2800 (currently +1600)
Behind Scheffler, Tom Kim is my favorite choice to win this event. On another long course, like Quail Hollow last week, Kim will have the chance to further show his power gains off the tee. Last week, his ball speed was over 170 and he ranked 28th in the field in driving distance with an average of 310 yards. The Dallas area resident finished 17th here last year and finished second in this field in the all-important approach model. Combine that with his streaky putting on the greens and this being a weaker field, he definitely has the firepower to contend in a birdie-fest.
(0.85u) FanDuel
Seamus Power +5000 (currently +4000)
After a stretch of bad form, Power has shown recent signs of life with an 18th place finish in last week’s Wells Fargo where he gained in each strokes gained category. He is the king of weak-field events with easy scoring conditions, ranking first by a good margin in that area. Further cementing his status as a favorite this week are his consecutive top-17 finishes here.
(0.48u) BetRivers
Taylor Montgomery +5500 (currently +4000)
It has been a bumpy stretch for Montgomery with four missed cuts in his last seven events. It’s probably not a coincidence that his poor play has come during this period of stronger-field events with tougher scoring conditions. TPC Craig Ranch provides him an opportunity to get back on track as he ranks fourth in the field in easy scoring conditions, including seven top-15s from earlier in the season in similar tournaments. He’s the best putter in the world, and if he can just stay neutral on approach, he will have a good chance of contending this week.
(0.43u) FanDuel
Tom Hoge +6000 (currently +5000)
This number that is still available on Hoge still has me befuddled. He is one of the few players in the mid-range that has actual win equity, having won last year and following that up with seven other top-10 finishes since. He tops the approach chart for the week and is a positive putter who has proven to have spike performances on bentgrass greens. On a course where there is very little trouble off the tee for his occasional wayward drives along with little emphasis on around-the-green play (his other weakness), he is fourth in weak-field/easy-scoring events and should find himself in the thick of it come Sunday.
(0.40u) BetRivers
Brandon Wu +9000 (currently +5500)
This was another head-scratcher of a number as Wu just finished third in a very similar event, the Mexico Open, just two weeks ago. A definite “boom or bust” type of player, Wu can get very hot with the irons and putter as also evidenced by his runner-up finish at Pebble Beach three months ago.
(0.26u) PointsBet
Si Woo Kim +4000 (0.60u) – BetRivers
Min Woo Lee +5000 (0.48u) – BetRivers (currently +4500)
Davis Riley +7000 (0.34u) – BetRivers (currently +5500)
Eric Cole +12500 (0.19u) – BetRivers (currently +8000)
Jimmy Walker +15000 (0.15u) – BetRivers (currently +10000)
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Tom Kim +100 (1.5u) – FanDuel
- Matt Kuchar +125 (1u) – DraftKings
- K.H. Lee +138 (1.2u) – BetRivers
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Stephen Jaeger -105 (1.1u)
- Seamus Power -105 (1.2u)
- Tom Hoge +138 (1u)
- Taylor Montgomery +138 (1u)
- Brandon Wu +138 (1.2u)
- Davis Riley +163 (1u)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +163 (1u)
Top 40 – all FanDuel
- Scott Stallings +100 (1.1u)
- Michael Kim +115 (1u)
- Eric Cole +150 (1u)
- Jimmy Walker +165 (1u)
- Nate Lashley +175 (1u)
- Kevin Roy +360 (0.5u)
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images