The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week before heading up to Rochester, New York, for next week’s PGA Championship at Oak Hill. A lot of golfers like to play the week before a major, so this is a decent field considering it’s not an elevated event. This is the third year of McKinney, Texas’ TPC Craig Ranch as the host venue for the Byron Nelson. We’ve seen birdie fests in 2021 and 2022, and there’s no reason to not expect a third. TPC Craig Ranch rates out as one of the easiest tracks on the schedule, playing more like your local muni and less like a PGA Championship tune-up.
The elite tier loses its edge when a course plays as easily as this place projects to play this week, so my outright bets will come from down the board. The TPC Craig Ranch fairways are wide, the green complexes are large, and all Par-5s are reachable in two. Apparently, they didn’t like the 50%+ birdie rate on hole no. 12, so that’s been changed from a 547-yard Par 5 to a 493-yard Par 4 this week. Overall, I’m focusing on approach play and birdie opportunities this week, hoping someone can scorch these bentgrass greens for four straight days.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Craig Ranch:
TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. This is a change from the scorecard of the first two years when it played as a par 72 course. In an attempt to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and will play as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps, as it ranks as the 11th longest course on Tour.
On approach, 36.4% of shots have come from 200+ yards. That is 10% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only is the Greens in Regulation rate 5% easier than average, but the GIR rate when missing the fairway is one of the highest on Tour at 59%. With the 12th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers is a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty.
Because it is so easy to gain strokes off the tee, this becomes an ultimate second-shot course. Overall, TPC Craig Ranch was the 3rd easiest course to gain strokes on approach in 2021. In 2021, the top eight players in SG: Approach finished within the top-17 on the leaderboard. And last year, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top-17 overall.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
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Noonan’s Byron Nelson Betting Targets
Min Woo Lee
I’ve been waiting for the right spot to get in on Min Woo Lee, and this price and setup feel like the perfect time to jump in. After an electric swing season in Europe, where he finished T13 or better in eight straight starts, Min Woo has been playing solely on the PGA Tour with mixed results. He was in the final group on Sunday at The PLAYERS before melting a bit under pressure, but he’s young, and overall, I believe that experience will help him moving forward.
His length is an advantage here, and he’s a streaky scorer, ranking sixth in Eagles and 13th in Birdie or better rate over the past 50 rounds.
- To Win: +4800 FanDuel
Taylor Montgomery
I’m backing the best putter in the field in an event that boils down to a putting contest. Long-term, I think Taylor Montgomery is going to be better than just a bomber that can putt, but he’s first in the field in Eagles, Birdie or better rate, and putting from 5-15 ft over the past 50 rounds.
Similar to Min Woo Lee, his recent form, particularly his recent approach metrics, leave a lot to be desired, but Montgomery dominated the Korn Ferry Tour last season, and no event on Tour resembles that type of setup more than Craig Ranch.
- To Win: +5500 FanDuel
Tom Hoge
Leaning on Tom Hoge’s predictable approach play is more of my style than backing high-wire acts like Min Woo Lee and Taylor Montgomery, so I’m balancing out my card a bit here. Tom Hoge missed the cut at the Masters and RBC Heritage prior to a decent finish at Zurich, but Tom Hoge hasn’t needed to show form heading into an event to have a good finish. In fact, most of his best finishes in the past two years have come after missing the cut in his previous start, including his win at Pebble Beach last February.
He still offers the scoring upside that I covet this week, ranking fourth in Eagles and sixth in Birdie or better rate over the past 50 rounds, while also leading the field in proximity from 200+ yards out, which accounted for over 35% of the approach shots at this course in 2022.
- To Win: +6000 BetRivers
Sam Stevens
Out of all my plays this week, Texas native Sam Stevens ranks the highest in my model over the past 50 rounds. He has four T15 or better finishes this season, including knocking on the door in back-to-back weeks at Corales Puntacan and Valero Texas Open. The Quail Hollow greens weren’t kind to Stevens, but he gained 3.4 strokes tee-to-green and still managed to finish T47.
He has plus distance, scores well on long Par-4s, and has been giving himself lots of scoring looks this season, so I’m backing him at triple-digits.
- To Win: +10000 PointsBet
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlay
FanDuel still hasn’t posted their top 30 or 40 prices as of Wednesday morning. Any picks here will be posted in Discord.
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