*In case you missed it, here are my complete thoughts and strategies on every pricing tier for the DraftKings slate
There are basically two routes you can take this week – to Scheffler or not to Scheffler. I think both offer viable paths to successful and profitable lineups. If you play Scheffler, who most likely wins if he is even neutral in putting for the week, you are left with around $7.6K for your remaining five slots. There is enough depth in the mid-$8K and $7K range that you can mix and match a wide variety of lineups. The other path is to pass over Scheffler and stack as much win equity in the top half of lineups as possible. Candidates for this would include: Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power, Taylor Montgomery, Tom Hoge and Min Woo Lee.
You noticed correctly that I did not mention the likes of Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day and Adam Scott. I am completely fading Matsuyama and Scott this week and will be underweight on both Hatton and Day.
Based on my research and a simple “eye test”, none of those three players below Scheffler fits the course profile or style of play of an all-out birdie fest that will be seen this week. Each of those players tend to thrive more in lower-scoring events with tougher fields. Their game is not built to win a 25-under putting contest.
I just think it’s very hard for the elite players to change their mindset and style of play. The Hattons and Scotts of the world rarely play these events, where a guy like Taylor Montgomery and other mid-tier golfers play in these low-scoring weak fields half of the time. And so many of the younger, lower-tier golfers were playing in these types of shootouts very recently on the Korn Ferry Tour.
2023 AT&T Byron Nelson – Narratives and Important Metrics
Unique Model Weights
- SG: Weak Fields
- SG: Long Courses
- SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Driver Heavy Courses
- SG: Wind 15+
As for what it takes to have success at TPC Craig Ranch this week, players will face a lengthy course with wide fairways that don’t offer many hazards off the tee. The greens are large and very simple on which to putt. As was the case for the first two events here, typically, easy-scoring courses that pose little threat off the tee are transformed into target practice on approach, followed by a putting contest. Birdie or Better %, par-5 scoring, average proximity to the hole, and past success in other “Weak Field, Easy Scoring” events are other data points that are important this week and are included in the final model posted below.
On approach, 36.4% of shots have come from 200+ yards. That is 10% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only is the Greens in Regulation rate 5% easier than average but the GIR rate when missing the fairway is one of the highest on Tour at 59% With the 12th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers are a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty.
Because it is so easy to gain strokes off the tee, this becomes an ultimate second-shot course. Overall, TPC Craig Ranch was the 3rd easiest course to gain strokes on approach in 2021. In 2021, the top eight players in SG: Approach finished within the top-17 on the leaderboard. And last year, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top-17 overall.
Similar to around-the-green play, putting on these smooth bentgrass greens was the third easiest to gain strokes on Tour. Everything from one-putt percentage to three-putt avoidance ranks as very easy. With so many players hitting greens at a high rate this will ultimately turn into a putting contest. While putting is uncomplicated here, targeting players who have the ability to get streaky hot with their flat stick, especially on bentgrass greens, is something to strongly consider.
Most Important Stats For Success at the AT&T Byron Nelson
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Birdie or Better %
- Proximity 200+
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Par 4 Scoring 450+
- Par 5 Scoring
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive %
- SG: Long/Easy Scoring Courses
- SG: Weak Field Events
Weather Forecast – McKinney, Texas
AT&T Byron Nelson – DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
