Strategy
Similar to the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago, we have another top-heavy field for this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship. Coming off a Presidents Cup performance where he struck the ball very well, Sam Burns at $10.7K is in a tier by himself. Burns will be looking to defend his victory here last year just as heavy favorite Max Homa did at the Fortinet. With eight of the last nine winners on the PGA Tour coming from this upper-tier of players, I will be playing Burns in at least 50% of my lineups to gain leverage on the field.
Sahith Theegala ($10.4K), Denny McCarthy ($9.9K) and Taylor Montgomery ($9.6K) will be the other players in this range that will be included in my player pool. Russell Henley remains a huge conundrum. He finished second in the model, but at that price tag ($10.1K) he almost needs to win. And considering he has not gained strokes with his putter since March, I will be mostly fading him this week.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith an abundance of quality value options in the $6K-$7K range this week, I will be shifting my strategy by planting my flag with a smaller pool of players at $8.6K and higher and then mixing and matching the value plays (shown in the chart below) at around 5-10% each (20-50 total lineups). With so many of the lower-class golfers in this field having played sparingly over the past six weeks, I took more of a macro approach in the model this week by using a 12-month time frame for most stat categories. With that in mind, I am still playing certain golfers who have struggled recently but who have had longer-term success. The best example of that would be Seamus Power at $8.4K. He has lost 19.7 strokes in his last three events, but when looking at his 12-month sample size, he is the fourth-best player in this field.
Keys to Success
At almost 7,500 yds, and with little danger off-the-tee (OTT), and a higher than avg GIR% and BoB% from the rough, the Country Club of Jackson is a “Driver Heavy” course. As mentioned in my course preview, however, shorter players can still contend here. But distance off the tee is definitely an advantage and is one of the metrics used in my “Core 4” in the weekly model. The last two winners here ( Sam Burns and Sergio Garcia) have led the field in strokes gained OTT. Garcia gained minimal strokes putting, while Burns actually lost two strokes on the greens. Five of the past six winners here ranked high in driving distance for the week.
There are two key approach ranges to focus on for this week. 34% of approaches are from the wedge range of 100-150 yards. The Tour average from this range is only 27%. Also, thanks to the lengthy par 5s, 18% of approaches will come from 250+ yards which are well above the average of 10%. Accuracy when “Going for the Green” with second shot approaches on the par 5s will be crucial this week. This is where the longer hitters have a definite advantage in attempting to set up birdie opportunities on the four par 5s. The par 5s here rank as the second toughest on Tour in “Hitting the Green %” when going for the green on the second shot. I am definitely focusing on players who have success from the 100-150 yard range. The SG: Approach model is also part of the “Core 4”.
In the four events prior to the Burns and Garcia victories, the winners in those events gained an average of 1.48 strokes putting per round. These gains are applauded far and wide by players who speak of them being the purest greens on Tour. There are numerous mentions from interviews of how the ball stays on the putting line. Professional golfers also prefer fast greens to slower ones. These here at the Country Club of Jackson are some of the fastest on Tour, approaching 13 on the stimp-meter. With the average score here being 19-under the last five events, the argument can be made that this is a putting contest. Therefore, SG: Putting on bermuda greens has also been included in the “Core 4.”
Related to the overall lack of danger and ease of scoring conditions, stats like BoB%, Scoring Changes Gained from inside 15 feet, and Par 5 Scoring are also heavily weighted in the “Scoring” sub-model this week and are heavily weighted in the model.
Jackson, MS Weather Forecast (September 29th-October 2nd)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (100-150 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Par 5 Scoring
- Driving Distance
- Birdie or Better %
- Scoring Chances Gained
- SG: APP (250+) Going for the Green
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Long and Easy Courses
- SG: Putting 5-15 feet
The Sanderson Farms Championship DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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