After a dominating American team performance at the Presidents Cup, the PGA Tour returns to stroke play competition for the second event of the fall’s “Swing Season” in Jackson, Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Played at the Country Club of Jackson for the ninth consecutive year, it is a relatively long and straightforward tree-lined parkland course. Golfers who have added length off the tee and can get hot with the putter on the fast Bermuda greens will have a definite advantage. With minimal hazards and non-penal rough, scores have averaged 19-under par over the last five events.
As is typical for fall events in the Swing season, the field for the Sanderson Farms is quite weak. It is headlined by the defending champion and 12th-ranked player in the world, Sam Burns. He is one of the three participants making the trip from the Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow to the Country Club of Jackson. 2019 Sanderson Farms champion, Sebastian Munoz and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are the others.
After Burns, there is a steep drop in class as there is not another player inside the top 35 in the world rankings. There is a decent-sized middle tier with the likes of Seamus Power, Harris English, Keegan Bradley, Sahith Theegala, J.T. Poston ,and Russell Henley teeing it up this week. With the exception of 2020 winner Sergio Garcia, every other past winner will also be playing this week. There are three golfers in the field that natives of Mississippi including Davis Riley, Chad Ramey, and Hayden Buckley. Once again, the field will be full of Korn Ferry graduates looking to make an impression and show off their talent.
Keys to Success
At almost 7,500 yds, and with little danger off-the-tee (OTT), and a higher than avg GIR% and BoB% from the rough, the Country Club of Jackson is a “Driver Heavy” course. As mentioned in my course preview, however, shorter players can still contend here. But distance off the tee is definitely an advantage and is one of the metrics used in my “Core 4” in the weekly model. The last two winners here ( Sam Burns and Sergio Garcia) have led the field in strokes gained OTT. Garcia gained minimal strokes putting, while Burns actually lost two strokes on the greens. Five of the past six winners here ranked high in driving distance for the week.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThere are two key approach ranges to focus on for this week. 34% of approaches are from the wedge range of 100-150 yards. The Tour average from this range is only 27%. Also, thanks to the lengthy par 5s, 18% of approaches will come from 250+ yards which are well above the average of 10%. Accuracy when “Going for the Green” with second shot approaches on the par 5s will be crucial this week. This is where the longer hitters have a definite advantage in attempting to set up birdie opportunities on the four par 5s. The par 5s here rank as the second toughest on Tour in “Hitting the Green %” when going for the green on the second shot. I am definitely focusing on players who have success from the 100-150 yard range. The SG: Approach model is also part of the “Core 4”.
In the four events prior to the Burns and Garcia victories, the winners in those events gained an average of 1.48 strokes putting per round. These gains are applauded far and wide by players who speak of them being the purest greens on Tour. There are numerous mentions from interviews of how the ball stays on the putting line. Professional golfers also prefer fast greens to slower ones. These here at the Country Club of Jackson are some of the fastest on Tour, approaching 13 on the stimp-meter. With the average score here being 19-under the last five events, the argument can be made that this is a putting contest. Therefore, SG: Putting on bermuda greens has also been included in the “Core 4.”
Related to the overall lack of danger and ease of scoring conditions, stats like BoB%, Scoring Changes Gained from inside 15 feet, and Par 5 Scoring are also heavily weighted in the “Scoring” sub-model this week and are heavily weighted in the model.
Jackson, MS Weather Forecast (September 29th-October 2nd)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP (100-150 yds)
- SG: Putting (Bermuda)
- Par 5 Scoring
- Driving Distance
- Birdie or Better %
- Scoring Chances Gained
- SG: APP (250+) Going for the Green
- Fairways Gained
- SG: Long and Easy Courses
- SG: Putting 5-15 feet
The Sanderson Farms Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Sam Burns +1100
Rare are the occasions that I have bet a golfer with outright odds this low. But I believe it is imperative to “adjust with the times”. And right now on the PGA Tour, eight of the last nine winners have been at odds of +2000 or lower. We just saw Max Homa defend his championship two weeks ago at the Fortinet, and this week, Burns stands alone as the best player in this field by a wide margin. Even though he did not have a good record at the Presidents Cup, it was through no fault of his own as his game was sharp in every area. This could be his last event of the calendar year and I expect him to be motivated to go out with a bang on a course that is a perfect fit for his game.
Russell Henley +2800
Henley continues to be one of the best ball-strikers in the world. More importantly for this week, he ranks as the best player in the field from the wedge range of 100-150 yards. No player in this field sets up more birdie chances from within 15 feet. The elephant in the room remains his putter. Bermuda is his favored surface, and if his flat stick spikes this week, in this weak field, he will challenge come Sunday.
(0.85u) BetRivers
Taylor Montgomery +4000 (currently +3000)
Montgomery is clearly the best of the Korn Tour graduates in the field this week. While he is not likely to repeat his performance on the green at the Fortinet from two weeks ago where he gained over 11 strokes putting and finished in third place, he is a bomber-type OTT who will give himself plenty of chances to sink birdie putts on these pure greens. That combination of distance and putting is exactly what I am looking for this week.
(0.60u) BetRivers
Davis Riley +5000 (currently +4000)
The Mississippi native grew up playing on this course and is one of my top breakout players for the 2023 season. He is 3rd OTT and 16th in Approach in my model. He also ranks 2nd in the entire field in Scoring which incorporates Birdie or Better %, Chances Gained from inside 15 feet and Par 5 Scoring. When he had some struggles in the later part of the summer, they were mostly on bentgrass greens. Once he went back to his beloved bermuda he finished 13th at the Wyndham. He is back on bermuda again this week, and in familiar surroundings. I expect a very high finish.
(0.48u) BetRivers
Harris English +5500
English has certainly ridden the roller coaster over the past 18 months. He went from two wins and a Ryder Cup team in 2021 to surgery for a torn labrum in his hip and missing cuts in more than half of his events. He appears to be back to full health and the results are starting to show as he finished 9th at the Fortinet two weeks ago. He is one of the best players in the field during the fall Swing season since 2020, and two of his wins have come on Bermuda greens. At this value, he is worth a play on his win equity alone.
(0.43u) BetRivers
Other Outright Selections
- Seamus Power +7000 (currently +5000) (0.34u) – BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 20
- Sahith Theegala +138 (1u) – BetRivers
- Russell Henley +163 (1u) – BetRivers
- J.T. Poston +163 (1u) – BetRivers
- Taylor Montgomery +180 (1u) – DraftKings
- Denny McCarthy +188 (1u) – PointsBet
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Scott Stallings +120 (1u)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +120 (1u)
- Davis Riley +138 (1u)
- Emiliano Grillo +138 (1.5u)
Top 40 – all FanDuel
- Thomas Detry +100 (1.2u)
- Dean Burmester +120 (1u)
- Alex Smalley +125 (1u)
- Justin Lower +125 (1u)
- Patrick Rodgers +140 (1u)
- Mark Hubbard +140 (1u)
- Adam Long +160 (1u)
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images