The second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs heads to Wilmington, Delaware, for the BMW Championship this week. This is the last opportunity for the top 70 players on Tour to make their way into the Tour Championship at East Lake. After his win last week, Will Zalatoris currently leads the FedEx cup ahead of presumptive player of the year Scottie Scheffler.
The 2022 edition of the BMW Championship is being held at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware. This is a rare instance where this course has never held a PGA Tour event in its history. This leaves much of the discussion and handicapping of the course up to speculation.
This is sadly the last elite field we will see for quite some time, and we don’t even have a cut. I suggest taking full advantage of this week ahead of the swing season.
What we do know is that this course is a 7,534-yard par 71 that features some long par 3s, two par 5s that aren’t reachable, and a bunch of mid-range par 4s. These bent grass greens are well above tour average, and the course is riddled with bunkers.
From flyovers, the fairways are pretty tight, which leads me to believe that on the par 4s, these guys are going to be ripping drivers since the fairways are going to be hard to hit for everyone. Given the length of the par 4s and the size of the greens, it will be fairly easy for guys to “bomb and gauge” this course.
I personally believe that playing elite drivers that have above-average distance is the way to go this week. I also think that these are the types of players that will be very popular this week, given player quotes.
After writing up Zalatoris as my favorite outright last week, let’s hit another before the season ends.
Outright: Will Zalatoris +1600 (FanDuel)
If this seems familiar, it is because it is. Last week I wrote up Zal as my favorite outright bet of the week, and he cashed for us big time in an epic playoff. I am under the impression that this man is going to win back-to-back PGA Tour events. We have already seen known “losers” win back-to-back starts three times this year. Scottie, Xander, and Finau all won in back-to-back starts this season after long droughts.
I admit that betting someone at their absolute ceiling after a big win isn’t always a great strategy. Let’s say that if Zal won the PGA Championship, he would not be a good bet at 16/1 the next week at the Charles Schwab. The FedEx cup is just different. There have been 11 multi-time winners in the past 15 years during the FedEx Cup playoffs.
There is no doubt that Zalatoris is the best iron player on tour. He also has some connotation that he is just a good long iron player. However, I think his wedge game is just as good. Another reason I like him is that with these narrow fairways, his inability to hit fairways should level out to the playing field. His putter has also been so so good since his new caddy has been on the bag. With his amazing ball striking, if the putter works like it did last week. He will win this event.
Top 10: Cameron Young +230 (DraftKings)
I was going to write this up anyway, but this +230 number on DraftKings is pretty outrageous. Dating back to the start of the season, Cam Young has 7 top 10s on tour, so +230 in a 70-man field seems like an absolute no-brainer.
Young ranks first in SG: OTT over the past 24 rounds and gained 9 (!!!) strokes ball-striking last week at St. Jude. The reason he didn’t find himself atop the leaderboard is that he lost over 4 strokes putting. Coming back to east coast Bentgrass, I think this is a great spot for some positive regression.
This is going to be a driver-heavy course with a lot of wedges; he showed that he can succeed on those types of courses very recently. With runner-up finishes at the Open Championship and the Rocket Mortage. I think young can win this week, but a top 10 seems way safer and seems like free money given how often he finds himself at the top of the leaderboard.
Top 20: Sepp Straka +360 (FanDuel)
Sepp Straka’s golf ability was all full display on Sunday at the St. Jude Championship. He showed some serious guts and impressive ball striking down the stretch to lose to Zal in the playoff.
This number is just off, in my opinion; +360 on a guy who would easily have won last week in a 70-man field just doesn’t make sense. Straka did miss 5 straight cuts before last week, so this is baked into his number. However, we have already seen this season, Straka put together some great finishes. After his win this season, he had two top 10 in the next 4 weeks on tour.
+360 is also well above most numbers in the market this week. This seems like an absolute no-brainer play.
Top 30: Trey Mullinax +130 (FanDuel)
Another wild price on someone playing excellent golf right now. Trey Mullinax has four straight made cuts, which includes a win and another top 5 in the St. Jude last week. Trey was very much in contention all week and showed some serious guts down the stretch. Mullinax gained 6 strokes ball striking and still managed to finish 5th losing strokes putting.
Trey has some serious distance off the tee, averaging 318, which is well above tour average. I think this will lead him to have a lot of wedges in, and that will be important if he misses the fairway. Trey is going to have a breakout season in 2023, and I believe getting into East Lake will be the start of it.
Matchup: Max Homa -120 over Shane Lowry -120 (DraftKings)
Shane Lowry has peaked. Plain and simple, he had many chances to win this season that unfortunately did not turn out the way he planned. I believe that his best golf is behind him, and that is why I’m targeting him. I cant confidently say that Homa is playing spectacularly, but he has won just this year in this part of the country.
Winner at another East Coast, tree-lined, bentgrass course this season at the Wells Fargo, Max can contend again this week. The approach numbers have not been amazing by any means in his last two starts, but I believe that can turn around this week.
Lowry lost three strokes ball-striking last week on a course that he has had much success on in the past. The week before, he came in dead last as well. I just trust Max more here and am willing to lay the -120.
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