Strategy
With only 68 golfers in the field who are each guaranteed four rounds, the strategy definitely changes this week compared to a normal cut-event. Whether it is going with an extreme “Stars and Scrubs” lineup or leaving one thousand dollars in salary on the table, this is a week to intentionally try to make your lineups different. With so many elite players at the top of the board, ownership should be fairly spread out. With this being a new course and most of the players on top being elite drivers of the ball, it was tough for me to cross any of them off the list. And because the highest-priced player (Rory McIlroy) is only $10.5K, you can easily fit three elite players into a lineup.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith a majority of golfers on the final top-10 of the leaderboard expected to come from the upper echelon of players, the goal should be to jam as many of those guys into lineups as possible. There is a ton of “good” value at the very bottom of the board this week. And by value, I mean value with price combined with actual course fit. Players like Wyndham Clark, Luke List, and Kurt Kitayama are all bombers off the tee who should gain strokes on the field with their distance alone. I am leaning quite heavily on the “bomber” angle this week and will mix and match those players, along with the likes of Sebastian Munoz, Scott Stallings, and Tom Hoge, into my lineups with 3-4 of the elite guys at the top of the board.
The bottom line when selecting players from the lower third of the board in no-cut events is to always choose golfers who play aggressively. Since everyone is guaranteed four rounds, players are not worried about a cut-line and tend to take more chances. My player pool will be filled with golfers who have upside and who tend to have spike weeks in scoring. Along with a high Birdie or Better rate, I’m also looking for players who rank high in DraftKings scoring, thanks to birdie streaks. Each week, the rankings that I post on the Discord include DraftKings scoring along with a host of other important metrics. For this event, past no-cut history is also a valuable split.
Keys to Success
Wilmington Country Club has never hosted a PGA Tour event before, which means we do not have any course data from which to analyze. However, utilizing every other source of information that could be found online, we do know a few things for sure. It is a relatively long course where both driving distance and carry distance off the tee will be important. Since the rough is four inches long and growing, accuracy will be an added benefit. This makes Total Driving one of the most important stats in the Off the Tee (OTT) model this week.
Similar to the U.S. Open at Winged Foot a couple of years ago, players who employ a “bomb and gouge” strategy should find success. The bluegrass rough is much easier to control than the Bermuda rough we have seen lately. With 14 driver-friendly holes, those that blast away off the tee will be left with shorter irons and huge greens on which to land their approach shots. I believe that longer hitters have a definite edge this week.
Related to the massive greens, I will definitely downgrade the weight on SG: Around the Green because with GIR% being so high, chipping and short game will not come into play as much as usual. Also important to note that SG: APP does not just take into account hitting the green. Proximity to the hole from the shot location is also factored in. What I really like to do, though, is to analyze how players have performed in SG: APP and also overall Proximity on other courses with similar large greens. That metric was also built into the SG: APP model this week.
As for Putting, it is vital for success this week because not only are the greens fast and tiered, but also 3-putt avoidance is paramount. With the greens averaging 8,100 sq ft, Wilmington CC will provide a strong test for lag putting skill. One of the ranks in my SG: Putting sub-model was 3-putt avoidance on other courses with huge greens.
Wilmington, DE Weather Forecast (August 18th-August 21st)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Distance
- Proximity (200+)
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Scoring Chances Gained
- Proximity (75-125)
- Par 5 Scoring
The BMW Championship DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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