Coming off a thrilling Will Zalatoris win in the first round of the FedExCup playoffs, the PGA Tour heads to the state of Delaware for the first time ever. Set among the picturesque rolling hills of the Delaware Valley, the South Course at Wilmington Country Club will host the BMW Championship and the top 70 players in the FedExCup standings.
This tournament is a no-cut event that represents the semifinal round of the FedExCup playoffs. Players will be competing for $15 million in prize money along with one of the 30 final spots for next week’s Tour Championship.
Similar to last week, this event will be packed with the best players on Tour. With Zalatoris taking over the top spot on the points list, notables like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth will look to rebound off their missed cut at the St. Jude Championship. Cam Smith (withdraw) and Tommy Fleetwood (rest) are the only players in the top 70 who will not be in the field this week.
Most of the upper-tier players are safely in the Tour Championship and, along with competing to win this week, will also be playing for the ultra-important positioning for next week’s staggered start that favors the players that are highest in the standings. Players further down the points list, like Marc Leishman, Harold Varner III, Tyrrell Hatton, and Chris Kirk, will need a high finish in order to advance.
Keys to Success
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWith only 68 players in the field this week, the depth at the bottom half of the board is lacking, thanks to all the LIV Tour defectors. Amazingly, almost every single winner lately has come from the “favorite” section, which, once again, will cause me to pass on any longshots and focus most of my action around the top quadrant on the board. As seen in my tweet above, the history of winners at the BMW has been full of those near the top of the board. For the most part, these playoff events late in the year are also typically won by in-form players. It’s challenging to be struggling like Jordan Spieth and find your game in a quick enough fashion to win an elite-level tournament. There is also not much value in the top 30 or 40 finishing position bets this week due to the size of the playing field and the aforementioned lack of depth.
Wilmington Country Club has never hosted a PGA Tour event before, which means we do not have any course data from which to analyze. However, utilizing every other source of information that could be found online, we do know a few things for sure. It is a relatively long course where both driving distance and carry distance off the tee will be important. Since the rough is four inches long and growing, accuracy will be an added benefit. This makes Total Driving one of the most important stats in the Off the Tee (OTT) model this week.
Similar to the U.S. Open at Winged Foot a couple of years ago, players who employ a “bomb and gouge” strategy should find success. The bluegrass rough is much easier to control than the Bermuda rough we have seen lately. With 14 driver-friendly holes, those that blast away off the tee will be left with shorter irons and huge greens on which to land their approach shots. I believe that longer hitters have a definite edge this week.
Related to the massive greens, I will definitely downgrade the weight on SG: Around the Green because with GIR% being so high, chipping and short game will not come into play as much as usual. Also important to note that SG: APP does not just take into account hitting the green. Proximity to the hole from the shot location is also factored in. What I really like to do, though, is to analyze how players have performed in SG: APP and also overall Proximity on other courses with similar large greens. That metric was also built into the SG: APP model this week.
As for Putting, it is vital for success this week because not only are the greens fast and tiered, but also 3-putt avoidance is paramount. With the greens averaging 8,100 sq ft, Wilmington CC will provide a strong test for lag putting skill. One of the ranks in my SG: Putting sub-model was 3-putt avoidance on other courses with huge greens. That’s one of the main reasons I selected Sam Burns and Max Homa as my final outrights this week instead of guys like Cameron Young and Joaquin Niemann.
Wilmington, DE Weather Forecast (August 18th-August 21st)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- 3-Putt Avoidance
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Distance
- Proximity (200+)
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Scoring Chances Gained
- Proximity (75-125)
- Par 5 Scoring
The BMW Championship Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Jon Rahm +1500
With last week’s fifth-place finish, Rahm looks to be peaking at the right time. He gained 7.12 strokes ball striking in Memphis. He leads the Tour in gaining strokes Off the Tee and also leads in Total Driving, which combines distance and accuracy. He definitely has the firepower to bomb away with his driver and then gouge the ball from the rough onto these massive greens. Historically, he has played very well in the BMW with recent finishes of 9th, 1st, 5th, and 5th.
(1.33u) FanDuel
Justin Thomas +1600
Thomas has the most total strokes gained in no-cut events since 2019, and it’s not even close. Without much trouble off the tee to hurt his occasional wayward drives, he will have plenty of chances to play aggressively with his driver. He leads the field in Birdie or Better %, and even though he struggled on the greens last week, he has still been positive with his flat stick in five of his last seven measured events. Expect Thomas to gain numerous strokes on the field from both the 200+ and 75-125 proximity ranges.
(1.25u) FanDuel
Scottie Scheffler +2200 (currently +1600)
Fresh off a missed cut, last week was one to knock the rust off for Scheffler, who hadn’t played in a month since The Open. I expect to see the best version of him this week, with the only question being his performance putting on these large bent greens. He has the distance off the tee and with his long irons to combat the lengthy holes and to score on the par-5s. He also ranks fourth in the field in proximity to the hole from the rough.
(0.91u) BetRivers
Sam Burns +3000 (currently +2800)
Burns ranks as one of the best approach players in the field over his past 10 rounds, gaining an average of 3.1 strokes. He ranks 11th in Carry Distance off the tee, and if he can keep enough drives in the fairway should be able to gain some separation on the field due to his putting brilliance. Burns leads the field in both 3-putt avoidance and overall SG: Putting on large greens that are 7,000+ square feet. With these greens also being sloped and on the faster side, I have a strong comfort level with Burns, who ranks fifth in the putting model.
Max Homa +5500
Let’s face it. Looking back at past history in no-cut events, Homa ranks as the worst player in the field, averaging -1.5 strokes per round since 2019. But if you hadn’t figured this out yet, the 2022 version of Max Homa is nothing like we have seen in past years. The overall improvements he has made in his game over the past year have been amazing. I believe Homa is a perfect fit for this course, where his consistent driving and ability to avoid 3-putts will be vital this week.
(0.36u) BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Rory McIlroy +120 (1u) DraftKings
- Jon Rahm +140 (1u) FanDuel
- Scottie Scheffler +140 (1u) DraftKings
- Justin Thomas +145 (1u) FanDuel
Top 20
Top 30
- Sahith Theegala -110 (1.2u) BetRivers
- Max Homa -105 (2u) FanDuel
- Mito Pereira +110 (1.2u) BetRivers
- Wyndham Clark +110 (1.1u) BetRivers
Top 40
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Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images