Ryan Noonan
Brendan Steele T20 +140
After missing five straight cuts to start 2022, Brendan Steele has been a completely different golfer. His ball-striking numbers are off the charts. Regardless of the time frame, 20 rounds, 3 months, 6 months, Steele tops this field in ball-striking. Over the past 3 months, Steele has gained 2.2 strokes per round. Tony Finau ranks second in this field during the same time frame but has gained just 1.22 strokes on the field per round. That’s a huge gap. The putter has kept him down the board a bit, but he gained strokes putting at the PGA Championship and Memorial and finished inside the top 10 at both events. A field-average putting week against this field is all we need for Brendan Steele to be in the mix come Sunday.
Check out who else Ryan bet this week here
Geoff Fienberg
Emiliano Grillo T40 +125
I’m going to look past Grillos’ voyage to Scotland and instead focus on his T2 finish at the John Deere and his 3rd place at the 3M in 2020. I have bet Grillo to win this week at +6500, which does feel like an enormous ask but ill be adding a small handful of Grillo placing markets as well.
Catch up with all of Geoff’s 3M takes on this week’s betting podcast
Ron Klos
Davis Riley T20 +138
Ranking 23rd in the FedExCup standings and coming off three weeks of rest, Riley will hope to continue his fantastic run as a Tour rookie. There is no doubting his talent. He has answered every call from hard courses to easy courses and strong fields to weak fields. He ranks 15th tee to green over the past year and is top-10 in the field for ball-striking. While he has never played at TPC Twin Cities, he has been thriving at new courses all season. With seven consecutive made cuts and five-top 20 finishes during that span, he is trending towards a high finish perhaps more than anyone else in this field.
Check out Ron’s full course preview for TPC Twin Cities
Andy Molitor
Brendan Steele > Adam Long -110
For many of the same reasons outlined by Ryan, I like this coin flip price on a rejuvenated Brendan Steele. Ball Striking, driving accuracy, and HUGE gulf in distance off the tee. If Steele keeps it straight as well as long, he’ll have a heyday with these scorable par 5s this week. The combination of being the better golf with both the first and second shot at this price is too much for me to ignore.
I set aside current form a bit heading into a week like this, but Steele hasn’t missed a cut for a very long time. He feels pretty safe to score, find the weekend, and secure the bag (at least over Long, not sure about winning the trophy).
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