Strategy
This week’s 3M Open field presents an interesting DraftKings slate with only seven total players priced $9.0K and above. The top-three tier of Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama. and Sungjae Im each have their own shortcomings coming into this event. At his price, Finau needs to win this event. And we all know how often he tends to underperform, even on courses like this where he seems to be a perfect fit. He tends to spray the ball off the tee at times, and I fear that one or two water balls could ruin his chances of even making the cut. Matsuyama has looked a bit distracted lately with all the LIV rumors swirling. He has also gained less than one stroke off the tee in each of his last five events. Im is in a clear slump having lost 3.6 strokes total on approach in his last three events. He has two missed cuts and has an 81st place finish in his last few events.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bWhile Finau’s ownership is climbing towards 20%, if you skip the entire top tier you are entering Chalk City. Hadwin appears to be the lowest owned play in the $9K range, down to Cameron Davis at $8.9K. The other four players from Theegala to Davis are all currently at 16%+. Without much win equity in the field, if you skip the top tier, you may need to jam three to four of these players in your lineup and try to get different at the bottom of your lineup. The foursome of Maverick McNealy, Davis Riley, Cameron Davis, and Cameron Tringale all rate as very strong plays in my model. Riley and Davis, especially, are chalk I am willing to swallow this week and will be a big part of my core.
With over 90 players in the $6-7K range, and most in the bottom range borderline unplayable, balanced builds will be very popular this week. Leaving money on the table and making sure you have at least two to three players in your lineup that are owned under 10% will be important. With so much volatility this week, it is also a great idea to widen your player pool just a bit because there will be unexpected players who miss the cut. With all the volatility and many of the chalk plays being golfers that rate super-high this week, I will also be mostly playing single entry and 3-max/20-max lineups, where playing more conservatively will not hurt as much.
Finally, as always, make sure to keep an eye on the weather forecast. It appears that wind will be a factor. As of Wednesday morning, winds are forecast to be lighter both on Thursday and Friday morning. I do not see any wave advantages as of yet, with the exception of playing morning golfers on Thursday for Showdown lineups.
Keys to Success
The overriding feature and defense of TPC Twin Cities is one of mankind’s most basic needs for survival – water. But for the 156 golfers teeing it up on Thursday, their main goal is to stay as far away from the wet stuff as possible. 27 lakes dot the 235-acre property, which includes 13 holes with direct water danger. With windy conditions in the forecast starting on Thursday afternoon, players who have the accuracy off the tee to keep their ball dry and who are strong ball-strikers with their irons to setup close birdie chances will have the best opportunity to survive the cut-line and propel themselves up the leaderboard over the weekend.
The 3M Open is a perfect example of a wide-open week just oozing with volatility. Anytime a course has an easy hit rate of both fairways and greens, the gap between the best and worst players gets shrunk. Combine this easy scoring with a weak field and the threat of water danger everywhere, and you have the perfect setup for extreme randomness. Throw in forecasted winds gusting over 25 mph for a couple of rounds and you can see how there could easily be a longshot winner along with unexpected high finishes by lower-tier players.
You also should not shy away from players who struggle around the green with their short game as that will not have much impact this week. Last year’s winner, Cameron Champ was literally in the bottom-10 on Tour the week of leading into the 3M. He ended up leading the entire field in putting. We have numerous players in the field this week who are excellent ball-strikers but horrible putters. Players like Brendan Steele, Emiliano Grillo, and Doug Ghim fit this category and make for excellent lineup plays.
There are a few other data points to consider when choosing players this week that I have included in the model. One of which relates to all the water danger on the course, which mostly affects players off the tee (OTT). I gathered OTT data on every course on Tour going back to 2018 that had at least 8 holes with water directly in play. This gives some historical perspective on which players are more comfortable on these types of courses with a lot of water. That split was included in the OTT sub-model this week. Good Drive % is another vital stat because it measures the success of getting one’s approach shot to the green from any lie on the course. If a player ranks highly in that metric, there is a very good chance they are likely to stay out of the water.
Finally, course history and even recent form have proven to not be as correlated with success on this course or on easy courses in general. This week in the model, I have weighed long-term form (12 months) more heavily than recent form. The cream doesn’t always rise to the top. But in a very weak field such as this, strong long-term players like Tom Hoge or Jason Day (who both have very cheap odds) make for great underowned plays this week. Also, golfers who thrive in easy-scoring conditions with weak fields make better plays than just looking at recent form. That metric has also been added to the model this week.
As for the course history angle, Matthew Wolff won here back in 2019 in only his fourth career start on Tour. 2020’s winner, Michael Thompson finished dead last among cut-makers in 2019’s event. And last year’s winner Cameron Champ missed the cut in his only previous appearance at TPC Twin Cities. And you have probably heard it all week, but yes, each of the first three winners here at the 3M Open has had odds of 125-1 or longer.
Blaine, MN Weather Forecast (July 21-July 24)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- Opportunities Gained
- Birdie or Better %
- SG: OTT (Water courses)
- Good Drive %
- Proximity 175+ yards
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Double Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Easy Scoring/Weak Fields
The 3M Open DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
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