I don’t think that there is a bigger letdown spot on the PGA Tour than going from the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews to the 3M open in back-to-back weeks. After the amazing course, stacked field, and drama we saw last week, there is a chance we will get none of that.
We are headed to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open this week. We have seen only three iterations of this event, which is uncommon for most PGA Tour stops. We have seen bright new starts get their first win, journeymen win in dominating fashion, and bombers pop for a week and win.
This course rewards accuracy off the tee and places an emphasis on long iron play. It is also important to avoid the water that comes into play on 15 holes. We have seen golfers dominate this course with their distance and putting prowess.
Outright Bets: Adam Svensson +4000 (BetMGM)
I really think that Svensson is playing good enough golf on tour right now to win, and this week could be it. At a place that has shown longer shots and unproven winners succeeding on Sunday, he fits that mold.
What is so intriguing to me about this Canadian is that he has seemed to figure out his putter, which gave him a lot of trouble early in the year. He is an elite ball striker that has now found his groove with the flat stick. He ranks 6th in SG: P and 10th in SG: BS. However massive improvements with the putter, as he ranks 34th in this field.
I think he is trending toward a win after his first-round lead and 4th place finish at Barracuda.
Top 10: Nick Hardy +450 (Betrivers)
This University of Illinois graduate should feel great about his game right now.
Hardy is on a run of pretty stellar golf. Recently he has finishes of 14th at the U.S Open and 8th place at the Travelers, and T13 at the Barracuda. That reads as someone who is definitely trending right now.
Hardy’s biggest weapon is a Driver as he ranks 8th in SG: OTT over the past 24 rounds. He has gained an average of 2.5 strokes ott in his last 5 rounds and is a great driver in the long term.
This is more than a fair price for this PGA Tour rookie this week. Play him top 10 this week. +450 is a great price.
Top 20: Sahith Theegala +163 (Betrivers)
I think this is truly one of the safest plays on the board this week. This number should be closer to +130.
On an epic made-cut streak that dates back to March, I like this Haskins Award winner’s consistent play and poise. Theegala finished top 10 in three of those finishes. Included in this is a near victory at the Travelers just a few weeks ago.
He ranks 4th in total strokes gained and 7th in SG: T2G over the past 24 rounds. He has a higher floor than his counterparts in the range and he is very easy top 20 paly this week.
Top 40: Brandon Mathews +200 (FanDuel)
I am not sure anyone fits the trend of an up-and-coming elite to get a win at the 3M more than Mathews. This golfer is one of the longest drivers of the ball on tour.
This fits the trend of a Matthew Wolff and Cam Champ victory here. He has few results on the PGA Tour but made the cut at the US Open. I think he has the upside for a top 40 finish and will at least make the cut here this week. Play him top 40 at +200.
Matchup: Wyndham Clark over Nick Taylor -120 (DraftKings)
I really like where Wyndahm Clark’s game is at right now. I think he is a much safer option in this matchup. Clark is coming off a made cut at the Open Championship, 16th at the Scottish Open, 35th at the Travelers, and 7th at Canadian Open. Taylor doesn’t have a finish better than 28th in his last 6 starts on tour.
I think Wyndham’s elite driving can put him in really advantageous spots and be set up for many birdie opportunities.
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