Best Live Outright Adds
*90% of The Open winners since 1900 have been within three shots of the lead entering the final round.
*Since 1895, there have been 22 editions of The Open held at St. Andrews. Every single winner has been within four shots of the lead entering the final round.
Weather Forecast – St. Andrews, Scotland
The current wind forecast again appears to favor the golfers teeing off earlier in the day with winds between 8-10 mph and any gusts below 20 mph. Around noon when the upper half of the leaderboard begins their round, winds increase to 12-13 mph with higher gusts. In similar conditions, we saw the early wave on Saturday have a 1.39 shot edge over the afternoon wave. Don’t forget finishing points are awarded tomorrow if you are playing Showdown lineups, but I would make sure to include at least a few players from the early wave in each lineup. Players with upside teeing off early include Sam Burns, Joaquin Niemann and Justin Thomas.
Round 4 Betting Matchups Model
*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.
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Round 3 Betting Selections
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Billy Horschel -105 (1.1u) over Chris Kirk – BetMGM
Russell Henley -110 (1.2u) over Dylan Frittelli – BetMGM
Bryson DeChambeau -125 (1.3u) over Francesco Molinari – DraftKings
PARLAY +149 (1u) – Jon Rahm -145 over Victor Perez and Tony Finau -210 over Justin de los Santos – FanDuel
PARLAY +147 (1u) – Tyrrell Hatton -175 over Trey Mullinax and Scottie Scheffler -175 over Si Woo Ki – BetMGM
Round 4 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections
*No DFS model because of so many DP World Tour players with not enough data. Favoring players with high upside who have earlier rather than later tee time. Let’s get risky and chase extreme upside! It’s the only way to take down a large-field GPP. Tee Times can be found here.
Core Plays
- Jon Rahm $9.8K
- Tony Finau $8.6K
- Bryson DeChambeau $7.8K
Upper Tier Plays
- Scottie Scheffler 10.4K
- Xander Schauffele $9.7K
- Rory McIlroy $10.7K
Mid Range Plays
- Patrick Cantlay $9.4K
- Tommy Fleetwood $8.7K
- Shane Lowry $9.0K
- Adam Scott $7.9K
Value Plays
- Corey Conners $7.6K
- Russell Henley $6.8K
- Thomas Pieters $7.1K
- Joohyung Kim $7.2K
- Aaron Wise $7.4K
- Patrick Reed $745K
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7.5K
- Billy Horschel $7.3K
- Abraham Ancer $7.3K
- Adri Arnaus $6.3K
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Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images