Coming off a scintillating week at the 150th Open Championship, the PGA Tour heads back stateside for the inevitable post-major letdown and the 3M Open held at TPC Twin Cities. Designed by the legendary golfer and architect Arnold Palmer, the course was laid out on a 235-acre tract of property on the site of a former sod farm in the Minneapolis suburb of Blaine, Minnesota.
After two straight events on links-style courses, the 3M Open also signals a return to the familiar confines of parkland-style golf. At TPC Twin Cities, while low-scoring is the name of the game, there are still plenty of water hazards and thick rough to present a challenge to those who are not in good form. This course also contains numerous “risk-reward” holes which provides a level of excitement along with no lead being safe coming down the final stretch of holes.
The Field
As we head down the final stretch of the season and the typical weaker fields the come along with it, there is still a massive amount of FedEx Cup points on the line. Motivation becomes a real intangible this time of year as many players will be trying to either qualify or better their position with just three events remaining before the FedExCup Playoffs begin. Only the top-125 players in the standings qualify for the first event, the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
The week after a majors tend to struggle to attract big names. For this week’s 3M Open, only five of the top-50 players in the world are in attendance. There is a small upper tier of players headlined by Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau and Sungjae Im. A small group will be making their way over from across the pond, including Cameron Tringale, Tom Hoge, Sahith Theegala, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and J.T. Poston. Other notable players include Maverick McNealy, Davis Riley and Adam Hadwin. Past PLAYERS Championship winners Rickie Fowler and Jason Day are also playing, as is defending champion, Cameron Champ.
Course History
TPC Twin Cities was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000, with collaboration from former PGA Tour great Tom Lehman. From 2001-2018, the course was an annual stop on the Champions Tour. After that contract ended, the course was renovated to prepare itself to host the 3M Open starting in 2019. The 2018 renovation (led by Steve Wenzloff) included the narrowing of fairways, addition of bunkers and tees, and lengthening the course to its current distance.
This will be the fourth edition of the 3M Open which has continued to be an annual staple on the PGA Tour schedule. There are not many changes to the course from last year. A few tee boxes have been leveled and expanded, but perhaps the biggest change is that the rough has been thickened by an inch and grown to a length of four inches.
The Course
Located in the “Land of 10,000 Lakes”, TPC Twin Cities is a Par 71, 7,431-yard course that features bentgrass fairways and greens, native prairie grasses, and 27 total bodies of water which are framed by mature oak, spruce and pine trees. In general, the course is quite bland from an architectural viewpoint. Many of the holes are indistinguishable because of all the water hazards, and the course has a Florida-type feel to it. There are also so many houses lining the course that the beauty of the property is somewhat tainted.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bThe layout includes four par-3, three of which are over 200 yards. They rank as three of the eight-toughest holes on the course. Each of the three par-5s play between 590-600 yards. Even with that length, each is quite reachable in two shots. One reason the eagle rate is only around 2.4% on these holes is that they are the toughest set of par-5s on Tour in proximity to the hole when going for the green at an average of 93.2 feet. No other annual PGA Tour course is within seven feet of that number.
The 11 par-4s on the course are among the easiest on Tour and average under par. Six of them have a birdie or better rate of over 20%. Two are under 400 yards and the par-4 16th hole is often pushed closer so that it becomes a drivable hole which adds to the weekend drama on the final stretch of holes. Not shockingly, it is the five longer par-4s, with water hazards and all, that each have a bogey or worse rate of at least 17%. Players who can survive those holes and manage to gain strokes on the field will have a distinct advantage.
Before the inaugural event back in 2019, tournament founder Hollis Cavner gave a brutally honest description of how organizers wanted the 3M Open to play by saying, “We want birdies and train wrecks, and we don’t want to be the hardest golf course on the tour”. While the course features tons of birdies and low scoring, the data points to it not necessarily being a complete “birdie-fest.” Last year’s winner Cameron Champ won with the event’s highest score yet at 15-under, and the overall scoring in the event’s three-year history has only averaged 1.05 strokes under par.
As far as why scoring isn’t lower, that leads us to the “train wrecks” part. The 3M Open has always been about getting in position off the tee to attack flags, while also trying to steer clear of the 13 water hazards in play. As the course’s main defense, nine of these hazards will mentally challenge golfers on their tee shots. Stray drives that land in the wet stuff tends to lead to a bogey or worse. Last year the course had the fifth most penalty strokes per round on Tour. This makes control off the tee and Bogey Avoidance more of a premium here than most other “easy scoring” courses.
That being said, similar to other “easy scoring” events like the John Deere and Rocket Mortgage Classics there should be numerous birdie opportunities and a winning score in the upper teens or higher. With The greens also playing very soft and receptive here thus far, it basically comes down to a test of who can keep their ball dry off the tee followed by a ball-striking and a putting contest.
Strokes Gained Analysis
Off the Tee
With the 12th widest fairways on Tour averaging almost 36 yards on average, landing areas are substantial enough so that anyone finding the water is really striking the ball very poorly. Given how many penal areas there are with water coming into play on nine of 14 drives off the tee, hitting fairways is truly at a premium this week. Some players (Patton Kizzire!) seem to consistently view the water as a mental obstacle, and it’s those that contribute to the splash parties that are mostly responsible for a driving accuracy rate that is only slightly above average. That being said, TPC Twin Cities is not a Pete Dye type course where you have to have a proper angle to the green to experience success. Simply finding the fairway will allow for scoring opportunities.
As for distance, with seven holes playing longer than 465 yards, it is definitely an advantage on this course. While the data shows that players here are only slightly above average in Driving Distance, players who are confidently striking the ball off the tee with a combination of distance and accuracy (Total Driving) have the best chance at success. And it would seem that with past champions such as Matthew Wolff and Cameron Champ that the bomber narrative would be in full effect. While the winners haven’t needed strokes off the tee in order to have success, most of the contenders have been elite drivers of the ball.
Approach
With easy to hit fairways, the thicker than average rough has not been as much of a factor in limiting greens in regulation percentage. It remains to be seen if the increase in rough growth up to four inches will make approaches from off the fairway more difficult. With the GIR rate at 72%, golfers who keep their ball dry should have no trouble gaining birdie opportunities.
Over the past three events at TPC Twin Cities, 48.2% of approach shots have come from over 175 yards. This will be quite the difference from the past couple of tournaments where wedges (or even putters!) have been the featured approach club. With the green complexes lacking difficulty, proximity averages to the hole are also much easier than Tour average. All in all, this is the 8th easiest course in which to gain strokes on approach.
Around the Green and Putting
With a high GIR% combined with green complexes which are not that challenging, SG: Around the Green will not factor into the scoring much this week. Looking back at past history at this event, last year’s winner, Cameron Champ, lost strokes ARG. In fact, no one in the top-10 overall on the leaderboard finished in the top-15 Around the Green. 2020’s winner, Michael Thompson also lost strokes Around the Green.
The greens at TPC Twin Cities are bentgrass and run at a slightly above average pace of 12 on the stimpmeter. They do not have much undulation and typically get rave reviews from players as some of the smoothest running greens on Tour. Compared to the Tour averages in all the major putting categories, it ranks as one of the easiest on Tour. Everything from 3-putt % to putts made from the all-important 5-15 foot range is easier than average. Of course, with the majority of players gaining birdie looks on the greens, whoever can make the most putts is often one of the deciding factors to who wins the tournament.
Photo Courtesy of the PGA Tour