Changing a couple parts of the article format for tonight and moving forward. Instead of trying to write a short introduction going to try to make it more actionable info by giving my best outright adds along with my reasoning. If there are other pieces of data or info (other than the weather) that you would like me to also include each round…fire away and let me know in the Discord. Want to add things that would be beneficial to all of you making better picks.
Strokes Gained and Other Data Through Rounds 1-2
*Sortable Link: https://bit.ly/3Pi1rr1
Best Live Outright Adds
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Weather Forecast – St. Andrews, Scotland
With first tee not until 8:35 AM local time, across most weather outlets those first groups look to have a wind advantage. If you are playing Showdown lineups, definitely make sure to include some high-upside players that are teeing off early. By the time the leaders tee off at 3:55 PM winds are forecast to be somewhat moderate around 14 mph with gusts slightly higher. With the course drying out after Friday’s morning rain, I would also expect conditions to be much tougher than they were in the second round giving the edge in matchup bets the more elite players and those who play better in tougher/windy conditions.
Round 2 Betting Matchups Model
*Strokes Gained Rating (SG RTG) is the key metric that combines all the weighted categories in the model. Some players (or matchups) may not be listed due to not having enough sample size data.
Round 3 Betting Selections
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Scottie Scheffler -110 (1.3u) over Dustin Johnson – FanDuel
Jordan Smith -115 (1.3u) over Sebastian Munoz – DraftKings (Tie Voids)
Corey Conners -105 (1.1u) over Danny Willett – PointsBet
Hideki Matsuyama -110 (1.2u) over Bryson DeChambeau – PointsBet
PARLAY +158 (1u) – Justin Thomas -156 over Jason Kokrak and Shane Lowry -175 over Nicolai Hojgaard – PointsBet
PARLAY +138 (1u) – Sungjae Im -213 over Aaron Jarvis and Jon Rahm -161 over Harold Varner III – PointsBet
PARLAY +141 (1u) – Matt Fitzpatrick -165 over Min Woo Lee and Robert Macintyre -200 over Justin de los Santos – BetMGM
Round 3 DraftKings DFS Showdown Selections
*No DFS model because of so many DP World Tour players with not enough data. Use the SG data above for reference. Favoring players with high upside who have earlier rather than later tee time. Tee Times can be found here.
Core Plays
- Justin Thomas $9.4K
- Shane Lowry $8.6K
- Matt Fitzpatrick $9.0K
Upper Tier Plays
- Scottie Scheffler 10.4K
- Xander Schauffele $9.7K
- Jon Rahm $9.9K
Mid Range Plays
- Tommy Fleetwood $8.4K
- Viktor Hovland $8.7K
- Sam Burns $8.3K
- Will Zalatoris $8.2K
Value Plays
- Sahith Theegala $7.5K
- Abraham Ancer $7.0K
- Patrick Reed $7.2K
- Cameron Young $7.9K
- Thomas Detry $6.8K
- Corey Conners $7.5K
- Thomas Pieters $7.2K
- Sergio Garcia $6.9K
- Aaron Wise $6.9K
- Lucas Herbert $6.8K
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Warren Little/Getty Images