As is the case with any major event, the options are endless. Almost every golfer seems like a good play. And those that are mispriced like Sam Burns and Sungjae Im will have huge ownership levels. On slates like this where it’s hard to narrow down your player pool, there is always one main strategy I employ. I find the 3-4 players I absolutely love the most, no matter how chalky, and add them to my player pool. If a player rates high in my model and I can’t find any specific weaknesses, that is good chalk. It is okay to have some of those in your lineup builds. If a golfer has a major flaw, like Cam Smith and his troubles off the tee or Viktor Hovland’s around the green game, those are reasons for me to fade certain players.
After those two things are done…adding my favorite plays and then crossing off players with major flaws, in a sport as volatile as golf, and on an unpredictable tough course, you almost have to play the ownership leverage game. By that I mean, going tier by tier and crossing off some players you might really like and adding players you might be uncomfortable with. A perfect example of this is at $7,600. I think Sungjae Im is one of the best plays on the board at that price. The problem is that around 23% of everyone playing on DraftKings thinks the same. At the same price point, there is a golfer that you might have heard of who has not had much success lately. His name is Louis Oosthuizen. He has perhaps the best U.S. Open track record over the past three years (other than Brooks Koepka) than anyone in the field by finishing in the top-7 each of the past three events. He is currently projected for around 7% ownership and makes for a fabulous play this week.
Speaking of Koepka, that is another prime example. He is a very uncomfortable play this week because he has hardly played in months and his overall form is terrible. But he is sandwiched between the likes of Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Young, and Matt Fitzpatrick. His ownership is currently at only 6%. But even if he only finishes in the top-10 this week, you will have a huge advantage on the field at that ownership level.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bOne final strategy note, with not many value plays in the $6K range it will very difficult to use multiple upper-tier players. It shapes up to be a week with more balanced builds for lineup construction. With the cut-line dropping to only the top-60 and ties making it to the weekend, getting all six players through the cut will be even more difficult this week. The good news is that the $7K-$9K range has plenty of options. Finding the correct leverage plays that can make it to the weekend will be crucial.
Keys to Success
The U.S. Open is an event that, for the most part, consistently plays the same way year after year. It is typically set up as a tough driving course where distance (especially) and accuracy matter. The rough is very thick and penal and the greens are fast, sloping, and repel aggressive approach shots. Thus you have to be really targeted this week with your roster selections. The U.S. Open tends to find the best players. And The Country Club in Brookline is definitely not a course where you can fake it and get lucky. All ten of the last winners were ranked in the top 30 in the world.
Another angle I am attacking this week is the uniqueness of this course. The Country Club will make you uncomfortable. As some who have played the course have noted, at times it feels like playing golf on the moon. Between the rock outcroppings and the sharp embankments, the rugged shifts of land, and the thick fescue, its quirkiness will test players’ mental fortitude.
As renovation specialist, Gil Hanse noted, “It’s going to be an interesting mental test because many of these guys are going to see holes they’ve never seen in their lives. They’re going to have to play some shots that aren’t going to register on their fairness meter.” Good drives will result in bad bounces into the rough due to the sloping and canted terrain of the fairways. Those who don’t like blind shots will be out of their comfort zone as there are numerous instances of this throughout the round. Precision, creativity, and a strategic mind appear to be very necessary to navigate all 18 holes.
Another of the keys to winning is simply hitting fairways and avoiding the dense rough so that approach shots can be better controlled into these microscopic and undulated greens. Eight of the last ten winners were in the top 15 for driving distance for the week while also being in the top 30 in driving accuracy. The key metric that covers both of those is total driving which will be heavily weighted in my model this week. Jon Rahm, Corey Conners, and Matt Fitzpatrick are in a tier of their own and lead the field by a wide margin in this stat.
Two other stats that are also good to heavily weight this week are par-4 scoring from 450+ yards and bogey avoidance. Seven holes will play over 450 yards which will place a premium on long iron approaches. And with the course predicted to play tough and to limit scoring chances, the ability to save par and get out of trouble will be crucial.
Players who have performed well in majors and in difficult scoring conditions should also be targeted. This includes positive results from past U.S. Open events as each of the last ten winners had a previous top-25 result at a previous U.S. Open. Golfers like Shane Lowry and Matt Fitzpatrick meet these criteria and are excellent “good chalk” plays this week.
Brookline, MA Weather Forecast (June 16-June 19)
As of Wednesday morning, there is a very slight weather edge to players in the AM/PM wave. The forecast has already changed to a more balanced wind forecast throughout the day. I always tend to slightly favor Thursday AM players in majors because getting a heads up on the field when it’s a tough course has played well in the past.
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- SG: APP
- Total Driving
- Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance
- GIR%
- Good Drive %
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 yards
- SG: Putting 5-15 ft
- SG: ARG
- SG: Majors/Difficult Scoring
U.S. Open DraftKings Picks
Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options.
Core Plays
Upper-Tier Plays
Mid-Range Plays
Value Plays
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images