The U.S Open, the hardest test in golf, takes place this week in Brookline, Massachusetts. For once golf is actually front-page news so there will be no shortage of eyeballs on this premier Major championship.
There are ample storylines this week as a rival tour has started with big names from the PGA Tour coming over. We are also at an outstanding venue at The Country Club, which is rich in history and intrigue. Rory Mcllroy is off a dominating performance at the RBC Canadian Open, JT is looking to go back to back, and Rahm is seeking consecutive U.S Open victories.
I truly have not been as excited for a major championship in a very long time. The Country Club should prove to be an excellent venue, testing every single aspect of these guys’ games. Tight fairways, long par 4’s, thick rough, and small and undulating greens will make some tour pros look foolish.
The great thing about U.S Opens and most major championships is that I believe a much smaller numbers of players are actually capable of winning this week. The shots and grind required to contend this week are going to be extremely difficult and only a handful of golfers will be able to step up to the challenge.
Let’s get into my favorite bets for the week:
Outright Will Zalatoris +2800 (BetRivers)
I think there is a strong case to be made that Zalatoris has had the best Major season of any tour player without a win. He is one of only three players to top 10 in both The Masters and the PGA Championship.
If there is been an indicator as to what it takes to win the U.S, it is their current Major Form. The last 10 winners have posted a T25 or better in a US Open before. 8 out of the last 10 posted a top 10 in one of their past two major starts. Zalatoris checks both those boxes.
Zalatoris also fits the trend of the fact that 7 out of the last 10 winners of the U.S were first-time major winners. It is really not a question of if, it is a question of when Zalatoris wins a major.
Will is the prototypical bomber that has dominated US Open golf courses over the last 5 years. Over the past 50 rounds, Zalatoris ranks 12th in driving distance. And he’s improved his accuracy off the tee. Of the top 15 longest drivers of the ball, Zalatoris ranks third amongst them in Good Drives Gained. He’s demonstrated the ability to show a good combination of length and accuracy.
Off a fifth-place finish at The Memorial, where he gained 9.4 strokes ball-striking, there is no question that he is in great form coming in. Fifth at the 2020 U.S Open at Winged Foot when he was still a Korn Ferry Tour player, Zalatoris is not afraid of these setups. Bet Willy Z to win the 2022 U.S Open
Top 10 Max Homa +400 (DraftKings)
A four-time winner on the PGA Tour, Max Homa has solidified himself as someone who can close it out when it matters most. Max is a two-time champion of the Wells Fargo Championship and also won The Genesis Invitational. These were elite events in stacked fields.
Now it’s time to show he can compete on the biggest stages in golf. After struggling in the majors for a few years, Max notched his best finish at a major just a month ago at the PGA Championship. Homa finished 13th while gaining a massive 6.9 strokes with his approach shots.
Max is peaking at the right time. He recently won the Wells Fargo Championship and finished T5 at the Memorial two weeks ago. Homa ranks as only one of three players on the PGA Tour this season to rank in the top 20 in both Strokes Gained – Approach and Strokes Gained – Putting. This is a deadly combination when parlayed with his strong off-the-tee skills. I think he gets his first real taste of contending in a major this week so +400 for a top 10 is a great value play.
Top 20: +250 Aaron Wise (Ceasars)
Wise was not someone that was on my radar to start the week but I have grown to really like this play. Aaron is a former Rookie of the Year on Tour and was a prolific winner at Oregon but he lacks real major experience. I think that changes this week.
Aaron hasn’t played a U.S Open since 2019 when he went on to finish T35 but he has had some great results in his last two majors. A T17 and T23 at the past two PGA Championships show that he is capable of making the cut and finding himself in the top 20.
Wise is a prolific ball-striker that usually lacks in the putting department. However, he is trending with the flat stick right now. In back-to-back starts Wise has gained 4.6 and 4.9 strokes putting. I think that he might have found something that will allow him to have an amazing week.
Aaron got a taste of victory and contending by playing in the final group alongside Billy Horschel at The Memorial. Wise made some clutch putts down the stretch, Billy just had an incredible performance that was at no fault of Wise. Much like Mito was a surprise contender at the PGA, Wise will take the role this week.
Top 40: Mackenzie Hughes +200 (DraftKings)
Mackenzie Hughes has some U.S. Open pedigree. He played great at the 2022 U.S. Open and was even in the final group on Sunday. He held his own on Sunday until his ball got lodged in a tree on the Back Nine.
If he can contend at the U.S. Open after five-straight missed cuts like he did last year, he can certainly make it through the weekend this week when he’s shown some good recent form. I think +200 on a golfer that has finished inside the top 20 and at the top 15 at two of his last four majors is a great value.
Matchup: Xander Schauffele -120 over Patrick Cantlay (DraftKings)
I am going to continue to fade Patrick Cantlay in Major Championships until he proves me wrong. This is an extremely strong play for me and something I plan to wager a lot of money on. Very rarely are two golfers grouped together in a matchup in which I believe one is an extremely safe play and one golfer I think will miss the cut.
In Xander’s last 5 U.S Opens he has finished T7, 5th, T3, T6 T5. There is no one even close to that level of consistency in this event. He is also matched up against an elite player that has consistently not shown up in majors. This is seriously a no-brainer for me. We successfully faded Patrick Cantlay at the PGA Championship and it worked out swimmingly for us. Easy to go back here.
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Featured Image: Getty Images – Sam Greenwood