We can see the finish line on this PGA Tour swing season. After this week, we will only have two full-field PGA Tour events before the much-needed month-and-a-half break. We are not just there yet as we have the World Wide Technology Championship held at El Camaleon Golf Course.
We have a halfway decent field this week, highlighted by Scotttie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland. While also seeing some mid-priced golfers in great form looking to get their first win of the season, like Tom Hoge, Thomas Detry, and Emiliano Grillo.
El Camaleon Golf Course is a short par 71 that features tight fairways and hazards throughout. We have seen winners to the likes of Matt Kuchar and Brendon Todd. While also seeing bombers and elite long-iron players like Viktor Hovland win back-to-back.
I am looking for accurate drivers of the ball, and great wedge players with familiarity with Paspalum greens.
Outright: Tom Hoge +3000 (BetMGM)
Sometimes a bet is just so obvious you have to take it. Tom Hoge has an ideal blend of excellent recent form, and a perfect course fit this week. Put those two together, and you can see why he is a great play this week.
Hoge has finished 10th, 12th, 4th, 9th, and 13th in his last 5 starts. This has been highlighted by his elite iron play and newfound prowess with the flat stick. Over his last three starts, Hoge gained an average of 5.7 strokes on approach and 3 strokes putting.
Tom is also one of the best wedge players in the field, ranking first from 100-125 and 4th from 125-150. Bet Hoge to win this week, and you won’t be disappointed.
Top 10: Thomas Detry +410 (FanDuel)
I can assure you that this is going to be a common bet for me, given just how consistent Detry has been. Thomas Detry has made an excellent start to his PGA Tour career. Already this swing season he has gone 12th at the Fortinet, 9th at the Sanderson, and 2nd at Bermuda.
We are now getting +400 for him to finish in the top 10? That is a no-brainer bet for me. Detry has also seen this course, which is a huge advantage.I predict that Detry will have a breakout year on tour, highlighted by a win and a lot of great finishes. He hasn’t gotten over the finish line yet, but a top 10 is a great bet for him.
Top 20: Emiliano Grillo +190 (FanDuel)
Grillo has been playing some excellent golf recently and has shown he has the upside to finish atop the leaderboard. I will gladly take 2/1 odds for him to finish in the top 20.
Coming off a 4th place finish a the ZOZO and 5th at the Sanderson already this swing season, I can see another top 5 finish here. Over the past 50 rounds, Grillo ranks 8th in SG: ball-striking, 11th, and DK scoring. Grillo has some excellent finishes at the Puerto Rico Open and tends to excel on shorter courses.
Grillo also has four top-20 finishes here in his PGA Tour career. He is playing much better golf, so I think this is an easy one.
Top 40 Lee Hodges +130 (FanDuel)
I cannot believe they keep giving plus money odds one Lee. Off a very impressive top 7 finish at the CJ Cup, where he gained 4.2 on approach and 3.6 putting. Lee is just playing better golf than this number.
He ranks 7th in this field in SG: Approach, 4th in Ball Striking, and 22nd in Strokes gained Tee to green. I think the way the course sets up, with a premium on hitting fairways and rewarding wedge play, Lee is in a great spot.
I think his ball striking is strong enough to make the cut and I can see him hanging around over the weekend. This is an easy bet.
Matchup: Aaron Wise -130 over Mav McNealy (DraftKings)
Aaron Wise, in my opinion, is a much better golfer than Mav. I think that -130 is more than a fair number in this matchup. Most of this is due to Wise’s great course history at this event. Wise was one shot off a playoff in 2020 and fired a first-round 63 here last year, en route to a 15th-place finish.
Wise has also been playing some great golf; he finished 6th last week. Gaining 3.1 on approach and 5.3 putting. This is a great spot for him.
Featured Image: Getty Images – Kevin Cox