The PGA Tour heads to the beautiful Mexican resort town of Playa del Carmen and to one of the more underrated annual golf courses, El Camaleon. In English, “El Camaleon” means “the chameleon” and was named thus because architect Greg Norman built the course with consistently changing scenery. There are three different landscapes that golfers will encounter at Mayakoba which include jungle, mangrove wetlands, and the scenic coastal beachfront.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bEl Camaleon is a narrow, positional layout where avoiding the penalty areas that line many fairways and hitting approaches to the right area on the large greens have been the keys to success. It’s definitely a course where accuracy is more important than the average PGA Tour course, and recent winners reflect that with fairway finders Viktor Hovland, Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Pat Perez, and Graeme McDowell winning six of the last nine events.
Coming off the weakest-field event in months at the Bermuda Championship where Seamus Power emerged victorious, we have a much stronger field this week with 13 of the top 50 ranked players in the world in attendance. Taking it a step further, 24 of the world’s top 75 will be at El Camaleon.
Looking for a third straight victory here, the world’s 11th-ranked player, Viktor Hovland returns to Mayakoba and headlines the field of 132 golfers. Now known as the Prince of Paspalum, all three of his Tour wins have come on golf courses that feature paspalum playing surfaces. Hovland is trying to match Steve Stricker who is the last player to win the same tournament three consecutive years after he won the John Deere Classic from 2009-2011. Other high-ranking players in the field include #2 Scottie Scheffler, #9 Collin Morikawa, #14 Tony Finau, and #16 Billy Horschel.
Keys To Success at El Camaleon GC
With the jungles, mangrove wetlands and canals surrounding many of the fairways, there aren’t many courses on Tour that put greater importance on accuracy off the tee. El Camaleon is definitely a “first-shot” course. Yes, accuracy on approach shots is still vital, but with the Driving Accuracy here being 56.3% (which is almost 5% tougher than Tour average), the “Fairways Gained” stat takes on a whole new level of importance.
While distance is not important here, players who miss the fairway regularly will be in huge trouble. There are only a few yards of rough on each side of the fairway before the hazard areas take over, including the aforementioned jungle, wetlands and canals that surround most holes.
Because of the danger areas and doglegs, there are numerous holes where golfers choose to club down off the tee to avoid trouble. As 2018 winner Matt Kuchar said, “If you’re missing fairways, it means you’re in the mangroves, you’re in the hazard, you’re taking penalty drops, you’re really in trouble. If you’re driving it well, you have a chance to perform well.” Related to my betting card this week, the number one metric I am starting with is Fairways Gained. Nobody wild off the tee will be on my card.
This is also a “Horses for Courses” week. Course history can definitely be overrated for certain weeks, but when analyzing golfers who have played here more than three times, it is clear to see the pattern of either success or failure. For example, Russell Henley should be a good fit for this course. Yet in his last three trips here he has finished 56, MC, MC. On the flip side, whether its the coastal setting, the Paspalum grass or the narrow fairways, something about this course fits Joel Dahmen’s eye. In his five trips here he has finished inside the top-45 each time, including a 6th place finish in 2020.
Similar to the course history angle, players who have performed well on Paspalum grass is another narrative I am chasing. Paspalum is a real spongy grass that takes some time to get used to, and some players just flat-out struggle on this surface. Brandon Wu is an example of someone who thrives on this surface. In his handful of PGA Tour appearances on courses that feature Paspalum, he has finishes that include a 28th, 3rd, 7th, and a 2nd.
Playa del Carmen, Mexico – Weather Forecast (November 3rd-November 6th)
Top 10 Most Important Stats
*In order of importance.
- Fairways Gained
- SG: APP
- Opportunities Gained
- Good Drive %
- Course History – El Camaleon
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogeys Avoided
- SG: Putting (overall)
- SG: Paspalum Grass Courses
- Par 4 Scoring
The WWT Championship at Mayakoba Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Viktor Hovland +1300
With favorites of 40-1 or lower winning 19 out of the last 21 PGA Tour events, how do you not make a play on this week’s ultimate favorite? He clearly loves this course. Not only has Hovland won back-to-back here at Mayakoba, but all four of his career wins have come on the very same Paspalum grass seen here at the El Camaleon Golf Course. Thanks to the Paspalum, there are no bad lies here, and as a result, his deficiencies around the greens are drastically mitigated.
(1.84u) PointsBet
Thomas Detry +5500 (currently +4500)
Finishing 15th in my model, Detry is one of the best upper-tier values on the board. He had a strong weekend finishing 2nd in Bermuda last week. Even with this week’s field being stronger, he’s competed well in tougher fields before and seems to thrive on coastal courses.
(0.43u) BetRivers
Joel Dahmen +7000
Having gained over six strokes ball-striking in his last two measured events, Dahmen is trending upwards. He led the field in Tee-to-Green at the Sanderson Farms and recently finished 16th at the ZOZO. Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, he has tons of experience on slower greens and has had great success on Paspalum having won at Corales. He is super-accurate off the tee and in 20 career rounds here at El Camaleon has never shot a round over par.
Adam Long +9000 (currently +8000)
Similar to last week where he struggled on the weekend, Long checks all the boxes. While there is not one area of his game that will wow anyone, he is one of the more consistent players on Tour. In a week of “Horses for Courses”, Long is one of the ultimate horses here as he has the best strokes gained average per round at 2.39 which includes finishes of 2nd and 3rd.
(0.26u) FanDuel
Other Outright Selections
- J.T. Poston +9000 (0.26u) – BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10
- Viktor Hovland +150 (1u) – BetRivers
Top 20
Top 30 – all FanDuel
- Emiliano Grillo +105 (1.5u)
- Thomas Detry +120 (1.1u)
- Brendon Todd +135 (1.5u)
- Matt Kuchar +145 (1u)
Top 40
- Joel Dahmen +100 (2u) – DraftKings
- Aaron Rai +105 (1.2u) – FanDuel
- Sebastian Munoz +110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Justin Lower +110 (1.1u) – FanDuel
- Russell Knox +120 (1u) – BetRivers
- Adam Long +125 (1.5u) – FanDuel
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Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images