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Wells Fargo Championship Underdog Fantasy Pick ’em Plays – Round 1
Underdog Fantasy does a great job of giving us so many different offerings to choose from. From round score to fairways hit, fantasy points to greens in regulation, their offerings are unmatched in the industry. I won’t always do it this way, but I want to focus on first-round birdie makers. Quail Hollow is getting a ton of rain leading up to the start of golf on Thursday, and while they have a SubAir system underground that can dry the greens out quickly, it’s still likely going to play softer than normal for most of Thursday’s opening round.
Xander Schauffele – 3.5 Birdies or Better – HIGHER
In 12 rounds played at Quail Hollow, Xander Schauffele has a 75% birdie or better rate on the Par 5’s. Over the past year, Schauffele has played 36 rounds on courses considered “long” or “very long,” according to the Rabbit Hole, and his 27.4% BoB% ranks third in this week’s field.
Wyndham Clark – 3.5 Birdies or Better – HIGHER
Wyndham Clark is the defending Wells Fargo champion and the leader in birdie or better rate in 2024. He also leads this week’s field in average driving distance on the season, and his length is a massive asset at Quail Hollow.
Rory McIlroy – 3.5 Birdies or Better – HIGHER
This is one of Rory McIlroy’s favorite tracks on Tour, and he’s won here multiple times, mostly recently in 2021. Over the past 12 months, McIlroy’s 25% birdie or better rate is tied for the best mark on Tour. For the ‘Rory’s bad in Round 1’ crowd, it’s worth noting that his 27.1% birdie or better rate in Round 1 ranks 10th in this week’s field.
Cameron Young – 3.5 Birdies or Better – HIGHER
McIlroy’s Round 1 BoB% might surprise some, but you likely wouldn’t guess that Cam Young’s 30% Round 1 BoB rate is second in this week’s field over the past 12 months.
All four of these players benefit from an average driving distance north of 295 yards so far this season. Every winner since 2014 (except for James Hahn) has ranked in the top 15 in Driving Distance in their last 36 rounds leading into the tournament, and this foursome checks that box as well. With an average driving distance of 301 yards, combined with the course’s length, lack of hazards, and minimal rough, the course sets up perfectly for being driver-heavy off the tee and gives “bombers” a clear advantage. 85% of all drives measured at least 280 yards, which is the highest driver usage rate on Tour.
