With only one week before the year’s second major, the PGA Tour heads to North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship and yet another small-field, no-cut “Signature” event. Just southeast of downtown Charlotte, Quail Hollow Club has hosted a PGA Tour event each year since 2003. It is one of the most challenging courses on Tour averaging almost one stroke over par per round, making it an excellent test for next week’s PGA Championship at Valhalla.
It is a classical parkland course that is a favorite among players. Along with immaculate conditions played on scenic rolling terrain, it’s known as one of the most pleasant walks in golf. The course has a natural flow as players step off one green and the next tee box is just yards away.
With a championship-level layout, Quail Hollow is famous for the prestigious events held here, including the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup. It is known for its arduous final three holes known as the “Green Mile” which is the toughest closing stretch on Tour and plays a mile long…literally.
As for the Wells Fargo Championship itself, it has only been held at Quail Hollow four times in the last seven years. In 2022, the tournament was moved to TPC Potomac in Maryland to prepare the course for the Presidents Cup. 2020’s event was canceled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. And in 2017, it was moved to Eagle Point Golf Club due to the aforementioned PGA Championship.
As with any course that has hosted major events, every facet of a golfer’s game will be tested this week. As recent past winners demonstrate, including Wyndham Clark, Rory McIlroy (three times), Max Homa, and Jason Day, distance off the tee and positive long iron play are especially advantageous this week. Another important skill that matters is scrambling for pars on some of the toughest green complexes that players will face all year.
The Field
With this being the sixth “Signature” event of the season, this will be one of the strongest fields this tournament has seen. Except for world #1 Scottie Scheffler (whose wife is due to give birth to their first child this week), all other eligible players have committed to play this week with a $20 million purse on the line. That means 44 of the top 50 players in the world will be in attendance.
Last year, Wyndham Clark notably won his first career Tour event here and has since turned himself into a top-10 player in the world. Of course, Quail Hollow is perhaps the most famous stomping ground for Rory McIlroy who, on his way to three career wins, has gained an average of 2.34 strokes per his 42 rounds at this course. Justin Thomas also has good memories here thanks to his win at the 2017 PGA Championship.
Past Winners/Odds
Betting Thoughts
While past course history has been spotty here recently with no tournaments being held in 2017, 2020, and 2022, I lumped performance at Quail Hollow with other comparable courses for the unique sub-model categories this week. This includes “SG: Difficult Scoring”, “SG: Strong Fields”, and “SG: Long Courses”. Whether it’s Bay Hill, Torrey Pines, or Augusta National, each falls into the bucket for long, difficult-scoring courses where gaining strokes off the tee with your driver is paramount.
Similar to those courses, “bombers” off the tee who are also well-rounded in other areas fit the bill this week. Even with the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg not here this week, the field is littered with players who fit the bomber narrative including Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark and Byeong Hun An.
With an average driving distance of 301 yards, combined with the course’s length, lack of hazards, and minimal rough, the course sets up perfectly for being driver-heavy off the tee and gives “bombers” a clear advantage. 85% of all drives measured at least 280 yards which is the highest rate on Tour.
Shorter drivers who have accurate long-iron games can still compete here but their path to success is much more difficult. While fairway accuracy is one of the lowest on Tour at only 54%, it has proven not to matter. The last five winners have averaged 314 yards off the tee with none of them finishing in the top-40 in accuracy for the week. When McIlroy won in 2021 he finished second in driving distance and shockingly finished dead last out of 156 golfers in fairways gained.
Along with inaccurate drives not being punished as much as at other venues, those with longer distance off the tee will have shorter approach shots into the firm greens. This will allow them to benefit more from those shots than at other courses where holding the green is not as difficult. In summary, Quail Hollow presents more opportunities to play aggressively off the tee and will allow those players a better chance to separate from opponents that are shorter hitters.
Even with all the emphasis on being long off the tee, gaining strokes on approach will always be vital on a course that plays this tough. On approach, Quail Hollow ranks as the 11th toughest ShotLink course on which to gain strokes. The average Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate over the past three events is 60.5% which is well below the Tour average of 65.8%.
Much of the difficulty is due to the firmness of the greens combined with 55% of approaches coming from 175+ yards. Long approach shots that don’t have the necessary precision and trajectory could bounce ten yards off the green and leave difficult recovery shots. Thanks to many of the tricky pin placements which make the greens even tougher, proximity to the hole is one of the furthest on Tour at 42.9 feet.
This brings us to short-game skills. Around the green, Quail Hollow rates as slightly tougher than average when compared to other courses. Because of the difficult green complexes, scrambling from the rough and from the short grass is between 2-5% tougher here. There are some shaved runoff areas and false fronts that players will have to contend with that can make chipping difficult. Players will miss greens here, meaning there will be more shots from around the green. While not emphasizing it too heavily in my model, the slope and speed on the greens is enough for me to consider crossing off players who are very weak in this area.
The same can be said for putting. The greens at Quail Hollow are among the most challenging aspects of the course. Overall it ranks as the 6th toughest venue in which to gain strokes putting. Longer putts will be even more difficult as it ranks as the second toughest course for putts outside of 15 feet. The 3-putt rate is one of the highest on Tour at 3.77%.
While tee-to-green play is much more important than putting this week, going cold on the greens will quickly knock a player out of contention. Three of the last four winners here – McIlroy, Homa, and Day – gained more strokes putting than any other category, and Clark gained 7.5.
Most Important Stats For Success at Quail Hollow
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Driving Distance
- Proximity 175+
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Long/Difficult Courses
- SG: Putting
- Scrambling
- Bogey Avoidance
- Total Driving
- 3-Putt Avoidance
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Course Region: Southeast
- Scoring Conditions: Difficult
- Course Length: Very Long
- Field Strength: Very Strong
- Event Type: No Cut
- Field Size: Small Field
- Green Speed: Fast
- Green Firmness: Firm
- Rough Length: Short
- OTT Club: Driver Heavy
- Gain APP: Difficult
- Gain Putting: Very Difficult
- 3-Putt AVD: Difficult
Wells Fargo Championship – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
- Wyndham Clark +2000 (1.2u) – BetRivers
- Max Homa +2600 (0.92u) – BetRivers
- Justin Thomas +3000 (0.80u) – BetRivers
- Matt Fitzpatrick +3500 (0.68u) – DraftKings
- Will Zalatoris +6000 (0.40u) – BetRivers
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10 – all DraftKings
- Xander Schauffele +105 (1u)
- Wyndham Clark +160 (1u)
Top 20
- Max Homa +100 (1.5u) – BetRivers
- Justin Thomas +110 (1u) – BetRivers
- Hideki Matsuyama +115 (1u) – DraftKings
- Cameron Young +125 (1u) – BetRivers
- Matt Fitzpatrick +125 (1u) – DraftKings
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Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images