My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course-specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potentially relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
Key Stats Considered
The statistical model will always include the main four strokes gained statistics of off-the-tee, approach, around the green, and putting. It’s safe to assume, even if those stats aren’t elaborated on in this section that they are baked into each player’s ranking when all is said and done. The model will also include secondary stats that are specific to success on the current week’s course. Because these secondary stats change week-to-week, they will make up the bulk of those delved into in this article. This will include stats such as driving distance, driving accuracy, good drives, proximity from a certain yardage, eagle rate, birdie rate, putting on a particular grass type, and specific course types like “short par 70s” or “difficult courses over 7400 yards”.
SG: Approach
The cornerstone of every statistical model. Approach is classified as a player’s shot into the green, almost always the second shot, but occasionally the third shot on long Par 5s. When looking back on the most important stats that lead to success on PGA courses, approach almost always leads the way.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b- Tom Hoge
- Tom Kim
- Si Woo Kim
- Russell Knox
- Collin Morikawa
- James Hahn
- Adam Hadwin
- Corey Conners
- Mark Hubbard
- Rory McIlroy
Opportunities Gained
This stat measures a player’s ability to stick his approaches within 15 feet or hit Par 5 greens in two shots. Compared to the tour average, players hit greens in regulation at a higher percentage at TPC Scottsdale. If players are going to be hitting greens at an above-average rate, we want to highlight players who are going to be sticking it closer than the field.
- Tom Hoge
- Si Woo Kim
- Shane Lowry
- Tom Kim
- Rory McIlroy
- Brendan Steele
- Kurt Kitayama
- Patrick Cantlay
- Trey Mullinax
- Gary Woodland
Good Drives Gained
A good drive is considered one that hits the fairway OR one that winds up in the fringe and is followed by a green in regulation. The fairway in regulation percentage at TPC Scottsdale usually ranks lower than the average tour event. You can afford not to hit the fairway as the rough isn’t usually too penal, but there is water and the red rocks of the Arizona desert lurking beyond the rough, so you have to keep it at least on the planet.
- Collin Morikawa
- Aaron Rai
- Hayden Buckley
- Tony Finau
- Russell Henley
- Jason Day
- Matthew NeSmith
- Joel Dahmen
- Gary Woodland
- Matt Kuchar
Par 5 Scoring (550-600 yards)
Par 5 scoring is critically important to winning in Phoenix. You can go for all of the Par 5s in two with good drives. A glance at the top of the leaderboard over the last few years reveals that almost everyone who finished high gained strokes on the par 5s. All three par 5 holes will likely play within the 550-600 yard range.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Stephen Jaeger
- Rory McIlroy
- Aaron Wise
- Keegan Bradley
- Taylor Montgomery
- Tony Finau
- Jhonattan Vegas
- Joel Dahmen
- Wyndham Clark
Proximity 150-175 and 175-200
About 25% of the approach shots come from 150-175 yards, which is roughly 5% higher than the average tour event. The 175-200 yardage bucket is the other that occurs more than the tour average. When taking a historical view of the tournament, success from 175-200 yards has been a common thread among high finishers.
150-175
- Tom Kim
- Si Woo Kim
- Gary Woodland
- Charley Hoffman
- Mark Hubbard
- Doc Redman
- Ryan Moore
- Collin Morikawa
- Peter Malnati
- Cam Young
175-200
- Si Woo Kim
- Tommy Fleetwood
- KH Lee
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
- Danny Lee
- Callum Tarren
- Brendan Steele
- Chesson Hadley
- Lee Hodges
Recent Form
In addition to looking at the key stats specific to a course, I also use total strokes gained short-term as a way to highlight players who are currently playing well. Golf can be a very streaky sport. Baking form into the model gives a little boost to those who are dialed in with their swing at the moment.
- Jon Rahm
- Rory McIlroy
- Max Homa
- Jason Day
- Tony Finau
- Joel Dahmen
- Xander Schauffele
- Tom Kim
- Brian Harman
- Taylor Montgomery
Course History
This state measures highlights the players who’ve gained the most average strokes at TPC Scottsdale. Personally, I don’t always factor course history into my stat modeling. There are courses that may not have enough rounds played on tour or don’t have much correlation from year-to-year on the leaderboard. However, this TPC-style Scottsdale track has had enough uniqueness and leaderboard correlation over the years that it’s warranted.
- Patrick Cantlay (four rounds only)
- Sahith Theegala (four rounds only)
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Xander Schauffele
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Rickie Fowler
- Scottie Scheffler
- Webb Simpson
- Jon Rahm
- Justin Thomas
Peaking and Fading
One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well six months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking – Playing better recently than their statistical baseline
- Brendan Steele
- JT Poston
- Joel Dahmen
- Si Woo Kim
- Collin Morikawa
- Matthew NeSmith
- Adam Hadwin
Fading – Playing worse recently than their statistical baseline
- Aaron Wise
- Cam Davis
- Emiliano Grillo
- Mark Hubbard
- Justin Thomas
Stat Model Overall Top 25
- Xander Schauffele – Xander rates out well from a ball-striking perspective, landing in the top ten of most approach and off-the-tee metrics. He’s a solid Par 5 scorer long-term and also is third on fast-putting surfaces. He’s turned in a slew of high finishes at TPC Scottsdale in recent years.
- Rory McIlroy – Rory rates out top five in strokes gained off-the-tee, recent form, opportunities gained, 550-600 yard Par 5s, and proximity from 175-200. Rory has all the mojo after winning in Dubai, it doesn’t hurt that he checks a lot of the boxes this week as well.
- Tony Finau – Big Tone pops in overall form, good drives, opportunities gained, the Par 5 distances, and fast putting. His course history is volatile as he’s had a runner-up in Phoenix but also a few missed cuts.
- Jon Rahm – Rahm is arguably playing as well as anyone right now. Even when it looked like he may take a step back at Torrey, he made the cut and charged up the leaderboard before Max Homa ultimately sealed the win. Rahm rates out well off-the-tee, on good drives, and from the specific proximity ranges. He’s also played well in Scottsdale overall. He’s an Arizona guy, so there’s some narrative there, too, if that’s something you put stock into.
- Max Homa – Homa finished strong at Phoenix last year and rates out 14th or better in every timeframe used within the model. He rates out extremely well in all of the approach metrics, including overall approach, opportunities gained, and the specific proximities.
- Tom Kim – Much like Homa, Tom Kim pops on approach, opportunities gained, and the proximity distances. He’s accurate off the tee as well. The only concern for Kim is that he’s a first-timer at TPC Scottsdale, but that didn’t stop Scottie last year.
- Patrick Cantlay – Lost in a playoff to Scottie last year. Rates out favorably on 550-600 yard Par 5s, opportunities gained, off-the-tee, good drives, and 175-200 approach shots. Cantlay is one of the few players that landed at the top of the model who is playing worse than his statistical baseline. He finished 26th at the American Express and 16th at the Sony, so that speaks volumes for his baseline.
- JT Poston – Poston rates out well in course history, good drives gained, opportunities gained, and the 150-175 yardage bucket. He’s an excellent putter on fast surfaces and is one of the golfers who is outperforming his statistical baseline in his most recent rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler – Rates out 25th or better in off-the-tee, approach, good drives, form, opportunities gained, and course history. It’s tough to repeat at a tournament, especially in this elevated field, but the model is giving Scheffler a decent chance.
- Collin Morikawa – I personally love Morikawa this week. He’s come in second and third in the two 2023 tournaments he’s tee’d it up. He seems to be a bit forgotten. He’s one of the best ball strikers on the planet. Being accurate off the tee is something that could be advantageous this week. He rates top ten or better in most of the statistical categories when you shrink the rounds down to the most recent. He gets dinged on long-term rounds and putting, which is why he barely cracks the top ten.
- Sungjae Im
- Shane Lowry
- Tom Hoge
- Matthew NeSmith
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Justin Thomas
- Adam Hadwin
- Brian Harman
- Viktor Hovland
- Si Woo Kim
- Corey Conners
- Brendan Steele
- Hayden Buckley
- Joel Dahmen
- Keith Mitchell