My approach to golf betting and daily fantasy is deeply rooted in statistical modeling. It’s not the only way to go about handicapping a golf tournament, but I think it’s the best way. It helps me eliminate biases and identify golfers purely based on whether they are in good form and if their game syncs up with the course they are about to play.
In this article, I will put together a weighted statistical model specific to the course and tournament. The statistics are chosen and weighted based on historical data from previous tournaments. In addition to course specific data, I will also look at recent form and any other potential relevant angle. The model accounts for the last 50 measured rounds, with the more recent rounds receiving increasingly more weight.
This Week’s Stats
SG: Approach — Approach shots are the bread and butter of every statistical model. No matter the course, the second shot will almost always be the most important. Given the heavy bunkering around the green, sticking your approach will avoid having to get up and down from the sand.
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Tom Hoge |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
| Kevin Roy |
| Scott Piercey |
| Stephan Jaeger |
| Erik Van Rooyen |
| Eric Cole |
| Ryan Gerard |
| Aaron Rai |
Opportunities Gained — This stat measures birdie opportunities within 15 feet from the hole plus any greens hit in under regulation (on the green with an eagle putt or better).
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Ryan Gerard |
| Davis Riley |
| Samuel Stevens |
| Luke List |
| Kevin Roy |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
| Satoshi Kodaira |
| Ryan Palmer |
| Eric Cole |
Proximity from 200+ — 34% of the shots this week will be from this distance. There are several long Par 3s that contribute to this number, but also a handful of long Par 4s as well
| Augusto Nunez |
| Tom Hoge |
| Austin Smotherman |
| Adam Scott |
| Pierceson Coody |
| Kevin Roy |
| Min Woo Lee |
| Satoshi Kodaira |
| Nate Lashley |
| Michael Thompson |
Long Par 3s – There’s some natural overlap here with 200+ proximity, but the long Par 3s have been critical to success here in the limited time at Craig Ranch. Three of the four Par 3s are inside the top 6 in difficulty.
| Ryan Moore |
| Brandon Wu |
| Doc Redman |
| Doug Ghim |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Ryan Gerard |
| Stephan Jaeger |
| Cody Gribble |
| Scott Brown |
Par 4s 450-500 yards – There are six Par 4s in this key yardage bucket range due to one Par 5 being converted to a Par 4.
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Ben An |
| Jason Day |
| Samuel Stevens |
| Matthias Schmid |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
| KH Lee |
| Eric Cole |
| Dylan Wu |
| Aaron Rai |
Good Drives Gained — A look at the leaderboard for the past two events at Craig Ranch show almost all who finish near the top of the board do well in Good Drives Gained on the field.
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
| Stephan Jaeger |
| Michael Thompson |
| Tyler Duncan |
| Ryan Armour |
| Cody Gribble |
| Tom Kim |
| Matt Kuchar |
| Michael Kim |
Recent Form — Professional golfers can play well at any given tournament, however when it’s always important to give an added boost to guys who are in a groove with their swing and have been playing well leading up to a tournament.
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Matt Kuchar |
| Hideki Matsuyama |
| Jimmy Walker |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
| KH Lee |
| Dylan Wu |
| Adam Schenk |
| Kevin Chappell |
Par 5 scoring— We’re looking for birdie makers and guys that are going to go low for this tournament. According to historical data, Par 5 scoring has nearly double the importance for winners of this event.
| Matt Kuchar |
| Maverick McNealy |
| Ryan Gerard |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Dylan Wu |
| Derek Ernst |
| Kevin Roy |
| KH Lee |
| Kevin Chappell |
| Paul Haley II |
Three Putt Avoidance – Three-putting is never a good thing, obviously, but at Craig Ranch over the last two years, the top of the leaderboard excelled at avoiding them. You’ll absolutely need to make birdies here, but you also can’t negate them with bogeys.
| Maverick McNealy |
| Eric Cole |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
| Jimmy Walker |
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Ryan Armour |
| Sung Kang |
| Matt Kuchar |
| Nate Lashley |
| Samuel Stevens |
Course History — The players with the most strokes gained per round at TPC Craig Ranch
| KH Lee |
| Scott Stallings |
| Matt Kuchar |
| Hideki Matsuyama |
| Seamus Power |
| Troy Merritt |
| Davis Riley |
| Ryan Palmer |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
| Joseph Bramlett |
SG: Birdie Fests — Craig Ranch has played very easy with KH Lee going back-to-back and -26 and -25. It will play a tad tougher this week as one of the Par 5s has been made into a long Par 4, but it should still require a bunch of birdies.
| Scottie Scheffler |
| Seamus Power |
| Tom Kim |
| Tom Hoge |
| Maverick McNealy |
| Taylor Montgomery |
| JJ Spaun |
| Tyler Duncan |
| Jason Day |
| Tyrrell Hatton |
Peaking and Fading – One of the flaws that I often come across in modeling is focusing on a fixed range of time or rounds and taking a wider view to determining if a player is peaking or fading leading up to an event. For instance, a player’s high rating in a model that only focuses on the last 50 rounds could be a result of playing well four months ago. In this section, I will lay out the players who have improved or faded statistically over the course of their last 50 rounds.
Peaking
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
| JJ Spaun |
| Doc Redman |
| Jimmy Walker |
| Samuel Stevens |
Fading
| Tom Hoge |
| Robby Shelton |
| Si Woo Kim |
| David Lipsky |
| Aaron Wise |
Stat Model Top 50 Rankings
| 1. Scottie Scheffler | Scheffler dominates this field statistically as he ranks inside the top five in every stat out side of 200+ approach. This includes being first in approach, Par 4 distance, opportunities gained, and good drives. |
| 2. Tyrrell Hatton | Currently 7th in form, 13th on birdiefest courses, and top ten or better in approach, par 4 distances, good drives, and opportunities gained. |
| 3. Tom Kim | Tom Kim ranks third in long term form and third in birdiefests. He’s also 14th in strokes gained at Craig Ranch. He’s trending in the right direction finishing sixth at the Masters and 16th at Quail Hollow after a bunch of middling performances |
| 4. Hideki Matsuyama | Hideki ranks inside the top five for current form, course form, and short term course fit. It seems as though he’s a guaranteed high finish. We all know with Hideki the putter is usually what fails him, he just needs to roll the ball well this week to contend. |
| 5. Matt Kuchar | Kuch surprisingly pops in the Par 5 distance despite not being a guy you’d think of hitting the ball far. He’s second in current form, ninth in birdiefests, and fourth in course form. His key stat metrics leave a bit to be desired, but Kuch should place relatively high in this field. |
| 6. Eric Cole | |
| 7. Tom Hoge | Top long term course fit golfer in the field |
| 8. Nate Lashley | This one is a classic key stat vs. course form dilemma. Lashley dominates the stat rankings. Ranking third in short term course fit and fourth in long term course fit, but 79th in birdiefests and 49th at Craig Ranch. We’ll see if his skills can overcome his difficulty on easier courses. |
| 9. Christiaan Bezuidenhout | Bez is the top peaking player in the field ranking 73rd as a baseline in key stats, but 2nd over his last 12 rounds. He’s also 14th or better in current form, course form, and birdiefests |
| 10. Jason Day | |
| 11. Stephan Jaeger | |
| 12. Michael Thompson | |
| 13. JJ Spaun | |
| 14. KH Lee | The two-time defending champ only rates out 14th due to his course fit. Which is odd considering he’s won here twice, however since that win he hasn’t excelled in the stats you need to win here. |
| 15. Samuel Stevens | Has never played Craig Ranch, but looks really solid of late and rates out well here with a rating of 16th or better in approach, opportunities gained, Par 4 distance, and three-putt avoidance. |
| 16. Joseph Bramlett | |
| 17. Davis Riley | |
| 18. Adam Scott | |
| 19. Kevin Roy | Roy is going to make noise at Craig Ranch this week. He looked awesome in Mexico save one round. He rates out fifth in approach, eighth in Par 5 distances, sixth in opportunities gained, and sixth in 200+ proximity. I like him as a DraftKings sleeper and an FRL/place bet. |
| 20. Aaron Rai | |
| 21. Si Woo Kim | |
| 22. Michael Kim | |
| 23. David Lipsky | |
| 24. Ryan Palmer | |
| 25. Satoshi Kodaira | |
| 26. Austin Smotherman | |
| 27. Robby Shelton | |
| 28. Ryan Gerard | Sleeper candidate for DraftKings and place/FRL bets. Gerard is tenth in approach, seventh in Par 3 distances, fourth in Par 5 distances, and first in opportunities gained. |
| 29. Brandon Wu | |
| 30. Dylan Wu | |
| 31.Tyler Duncan | |
| 32. Andrew Novak | |
| 33. Maverick McNealy | |
| 34. Will Gordon | |
| 35. Carson Young | |
| 36. Ryan Armour | |
| 37. Augusto Nunez | |
| 38. Ben An | |
| 39. Jimmy Walker | |
| 40. Chesson Hadley | |
| 41. Seamus Power | Key stats are abysmal as of late, but he rates out second in the field in birdiefests and fourth at Craig Ranch |
| 42. Ryan Moore | |
| 43. Doc Redman | |
| 44. Chris Stroud | |
| 45. Charley Hoffman | |
| 46. Justin Suh | |
| 47. Scott Piercey | |
| 48. Greyson Sigg | |
| 49. Aaron Wise | |
| 50. Adam Hadwin |