It’s the week after a big one and the usual middle-tier crowd is greatly bolstered this year by the huge prize purse suddenly available here at Harbour Town. The squad has their outright bets loaded up and ready and as we draw closer to tomorrow’s first tee times, we’ve laid out our favorite bets for RBC Heritage for you here.
Also be sure to check out:
Ron’s Course Preview
Pat’s Research and Key Stat Model
Best Bets
Ron Klos: Collin Morikawa Top 20 +110 (Rivers)
With gaining strokes on approach into tiny greens being the main area players can separate themselves from the field this week, why wouldn’t I have the best iron player in the world all over my betting card? As Morikawa himself said, “It’s a course that I think really suits my game. A lot of tee-to-green, a lot of approach shots that are kind of in my wheelhouse.” With the improvements he has made with his short game (+0.25 per round) over the last three months, combined with the ease of these green complexes, Morikawa’s game fits this course perhaps better than anyone.
See who else Ron’s betting this week in his full betting preview
Ryan Noonan: Xander Schauffele Top 20 +120 (BetMGM)
We don’t always think of Xander Schauffele as an elite iron player, but he deserves more credit when it comes to his exceptional and improved approach play. Year over year, he’s up 0.32 strokes per round on approach and ranks first on Tour in GIR% from 150-200 yards out over the past 12 months. That’s a recipe for success at Harbour Town. He was fourth in SG: T2G last week and fifth in SG: APP, and I was encouraged by his accuracy off the tee after a couple of un-Xander-like performances at Riviera and Bay Hill earlier in the year. Schauffele found 13 of 14 fairways in Sunday’s final round at Augusta, so that’s encouraging. We know the short game is elite, so if Schauffele is able to position himself well off the tee this week, I love his chances to compete here.
See all of Ryan’s thoughts this week for the RBC Heritage
Andy Molitor: Wyndham Clark over Sahith Theegala +105 (DraftKings)
Over his past 50 rounds, Clark has gained strokes on the field 76% of the time. This is more than Rory, Rahm, Max, or Xander. While it’s hard to find anything that’s super predictive on its own, I like this combined with the fact that in that same time period, he only gained strokes PUTTING on the field in half of his rounds. To have total Strokes Gained numbers like this with that much inconsistency on the greens just speaks to his ability to navigate a course like this. With Harbour Town’s small greens, I will be downgrading putting and looking more at guys who can consistently finish ahead of the pack in ball striking, which he does. In a matchup, I’m not looking for a boom or bust candidate like in outright winner markets, I’m more than happy with a golfer that has (what I feel like) a narrow distribution of results on this course based on his skill set.
