2023 RBC Heritage - DraftKings Picks

Strategy

This week definitely has a different feel to it because we’ve never had an event with this strong of a field (even stronger than the Masters) after a major. Everyone is the golf world can usually can relax after the Masters and ease into the Harbour Town beach vibes, but not this week. This field is loaded, and because of the course, any type of player can come out on top.

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Along with it being post-Masters, it is definitely a unique week strategy-wise because off the tee (OTT) and distance mean little thanks to players taking less than driver on a majority of the holes. And who are typically the best players OTT? Usually the elite tier. So the fact that players will all be hitting to the same spots on the fairway, along with the fact that it is one of the easiest courses around the green, turns this week into an approach plus putting week with perhaps the strongest emphasis all year on approach play.

As mentioned, Harbour Town is a course where finesse and shot-making are prioritized over length and power. Distance is pretty much irrelevant. This takes away one of the advantages of some of the top-tier players such as Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, who have elite power and length. It’s a course that should level the playing field and mitigate any distinct advantage from bombers.

Personally, it is too scary to fade any of the top five players, and thus I am still playing everyone. I will be fading Rahm, Scheffler and Spieth to an extent. While Spieth loves this course, he has also admitted to feeling exhausted coming into this week. I will be very overweight on both Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa up top.

Moving further down the board, many often talk of playing a “Stars and Scrubs” lineup. But there is so much balance and win equity in the $8K range alone that you can literally play a “Stars and Stars” lineup this week. The ability to play five of the following: Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood offer tremendous upside.

2023 RBC Heritage – Narratives and Important Metrics

Unique Model Weights

SG: Strong Fields
SG: Coastal Courses/Winds 15+ mph
SG: Week After Major
SG: Less Than Driver Courses
SG: Comp Courses

When players at the RBC Heritage reach into their bag for their club to tee off this week, very rarely will they grab a driver. Harbour Town has the fewest rate of drives over 300 yards at only 19.1%. It also has the second-lowest average driving distance on Tour at only 275.5 yards per drive. The past 13 winners have an average ranking of 55th in distance off-the-tee. There is almost no chance for bombers to cheat the course by cutting corners on dog legs or hitting over the trees.

Evidence of this are the surprise longshot winners over the years who are shorter more positional hitters – Satoshi Kodaira, CT Pan, Wesley Bryan, Webb Simpson.

Even driving accuracy is unique here. Players have commented on their ball sitting in the fairway yet having tree branches still hanging down in front of them. 2021’s winner, Stewart Cink, ranked 57th in Fairways Gained. SG: OTT has one of the lowest weights in my final model as there will be for the entire year. It’s not as much about finding the fairway as it is hitting your tee shot to the proper spot on the fairway to give yourself the best angle to the green on approach. Good Drive % is a key stat this week and shows player success in getting the ball onto the greens with their approach shot even if they miss the fairway.

To put it simply, this week is basically target-to-target golf. With the second smallest greens on Tour, it will come down to approach play, scrambling and who can get hot with the putter So ball-strikers and players consistent around the greens should be the focus for the RBC Heritage.

Another interesting angle is how players perform the week directly after playing in a major. I did some research and compiled the performances of all 44 golfers who making the turnaround and playing at Harbour Town this week. Many of the elite names are right at the top, including Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, and Tony Finau. There were also a couple of lesser-tier players that ranked high like Brian Harman and Billy Horschel.

Another focus for me this week will be analyzing past performance on other courses comparable to Harbour Town. These would be courses like Colonial, Sedgefield, and Pebble Beach – layouts that are shorter and positional in nature that don’t require drivers or distance off-the-tee. And finally, as with all coastal courses, the wind looks like it will have an effect on play throughout. In the model, I have included the rankings for Strokes Gained on Coastal Courses.

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

SG: APP
Good Drive %
Scrambling
Proximity 125-200 yds
SG: Comp Courses
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis)
Par 5 Scoring
Birdie or Better %
SG: Total (Last 3 Months)
Bogey Avoidance

Hilton Head Island, South Carolina – Weather Forecast

RBC Heritage – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.