First Round Leader Model and Bets – 2022 Valspar Championship

With numerous players coming off a shortened week of preparation after the marathon that was the PLAYERS, it will be interesting to see the effect on first-round performance at the Valspar on Thursday. One thing for sure is that players teeing off here in the a.m. wave have had tremendous historical success when it comes to being the first-round leader (FRL). In each of the past five years, the FRL has come from the morning wave, including Keegan Bradley last year. Going back even further, in nine of the past 11 first rounds at Innisbrook, at least one of the leaders came from the early tee times. Thus, in my selections below, each plays in the morning wave with the exception of Brian Harman.

As for the weather, Thursday looks about as perfect as it gets. And with all the recent rainfall soaking the course here in Palm Harbor, Florida, expect soft scoreable conditions. This has me targeting more high-ceiling players that have the ability to shoot a very low round.

The weighted model below includes the most important pieces of relevant data related to past first-round performance. It also includes odds, tee times, and DraftKings Showdown prices.

Having hit three First Round Leaders already this calendar year, I’m a bit more aggressive with my process—three units total wagered to get 18 units in return. The model below is still in its early developmental stages. If anyone has questions on the columns or has any suggestions to make it better, DM on me Twitter anytime.

First Round Leader Betting Selections