Our BetSperts Golf staff has combed through the projections and available lines to identify our favorite bets for the Valspar Championship. These are our Best Bets for the weekend:
Shane Lowry +3300 (Circa)
Andy Molitor: Outside of the fine form we’ve seen lately at THE PLAYERS Championship (13th), and the Honda Classic (2nd, but let’s be honest, he had it won), the Irishman also put together some nice results in the desert, finishing T12 and T24 in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, respectively. Shane Lowry fits all the attributes I need here for a high-ceiling player: he’s plenty accurate off the tee, has nice GIR% numbers, and he has been a quality ball-striker so far this year. I’d rate him as high as anyone in the field right now as he’s basically only behind Viktor Hovland as far as Strokes Gained Per Round: Ball-Striking at the moment. Sitting around 25/1-to-28/1 in most of the market right now, I think this is a nice little value play for a guy playing just as well as the top of the field at the moment.
Adam Hadwin Top 40 +115 (DraftKings)
Ron Klos: With his irons trending upwards, Adam Hadwin has gained at least 3.7 shots on approach in three of the past four events, including at THE PLAYERS Championship, where he finished ninth last week. He won here in 2017 and finished 12th in 2018. He shockingly finished sixth overall in my model thanks to ranking eighth in Approach, sixth in ARG, eighth in the “Core 4,” and second in my “Safety” metric.
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2500 (DraftKings)
Ryan Noonan: One of the best putters in the world couldn’t make a putt last week at TPC Sawgrass and was on the short end of the stick in terms of tee time waves. Okay. I’m willing to throw that out the window this week to back Matthew Fitzpatrick at a similar price to his pre-tournament PLAYERS number last week. Fitzpatrick is not someone I’ve backed historically. He’s thrived on and around the greens, rarely registering as an above-average ball-striker in any given week. In 27 measured starts last season, Fitzpatrick averaged 0.00 strokes gained approach (SG: APP). He was the poster boy for Tour average. This season, he’s averaging 0.64 SG: APP per round, a massive gain that’s resulted in four straight T12 or better finishes heading into last week’s PLAYERS. He’s been especially adept with his long irons in 2022, ranking first in birdie or better% (BOB%) from 200+ yards, and also finds himself among the top 10 in this field in long iron accuracy. I posted him as a play in our Discord on Tuesday morning at +3300, and that number has dwindled down to +2500 across the board, and he’s still in play for me at that price. If you shy away from the outright market, FanDuel has him at +320 to finish inside the top 10.
Vaughn Taylor Top 20 +900 (DraftKings)
John Daigle: Taylor is one of our crew’s favorite players for DFS purposes for the same reasons I’m high on him to spike a respectable finish: Not only is he the only golfer in this field ranked Top-30 in Driving Accuracy, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Around the Green—three categories we should lean on in our research given the numerous hazards surrounding Copperhead—only Sam Burns (4.6) has averaged more birdies per round at The Valspar Championship than Taylor (3.8) has since 2015. We’re essentially banking on the latter’s scrambling ability to ensure he plays (and threatens) into the weekend.
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