The PGA Tour heads back to the Lone Star State for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and one of the final tune-ups before the season’s second major, the PGA Championship. Located within the community of Craig Ranch in the Dallas suburb of McKinney, Texas, TPC Craig Ranch is the host course for the fourth consecutive year. The event dates back to 1944, and in recent years has moved all over the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex with both Trinity Forest and the TPC Four Seasons Resort courses also hosting.
Featuring easy scoring conditions, few hazards, wide-open fairways, and large receptive greens, TPC Craig Ranch is a prototypical TPC course. It certainly fits the eyes of K.H. Lee who has won this event in two of the three years in which the tournament was held here. With an average winning score of 25-under par, it is a birdie-maker’s paradise that inevitably boils down to a putting contest. Along with “spike putting” ability, long-iron/wood approach play is the key “separator” when determining golfers to target this week.
The Field
Traditionally, the Byron Nelson has typically had a weak strength of field. That has only been amplified this year with the tournament being in the midst of a six-week stretch that includes two “Signature” events and two majors. Jordan Spieth is the only top-20 player in attendance. Overall, 10 of the top 50 in the world rankings are in the field including last year’s winner, Jason Day, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, Min Woo Lee, Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, and Si Woo Kim.
Numerous players with ties to the Dallas area show up here every year including Spieth, Zalatoris, Tom Kim, K.H. Lee, Tom Hoge, and Ryan Palmer. With 500 FedEx Cup points, a $9.5 million purse, and the ability to play one’s way into next week’s “Signature” Wells Fargo event along with the PGA Championship on the line, there is plenty at stake this week.
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Finish Position and Strokes Gained Course History (2021-2023)
This includes the average finish position and Strokes Gained per round since 2015 for each of the categories. Players are sorted by SG: Total. TPC Craig Ranch is the 39th most (out of 44) predictive annual course on Tour.
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Course Features
Featuring gently rolling hills, mature woods, and the ever-present Rowlett Creek which crisscrosses the course 14 different times, TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. In the first two editions here of the Byron Nelson, it played as a par 72. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and plays as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps as it ranks as the 10th longest course on Tour.
Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, it has sprawling fairways (8th widest on Tour), few hazards, and larger than average flat greens. The first three events at TPC Craig Ranch have been the definition of a birdie-fest. K.H. Lee bettered his 25-under winning score from 2021 with a 26-under mark in 2022. Last year, Jason Day won at 23-under. Overall, the course has played as the fourth easiest on Tour at 2.43 strokes under par. It put up such little defense that only five holes average over par, and it contains the highest birdie-to-bogey ratio at 2.2. TPC Craig Ranch is a scorer’s paradise that will come down to ball striking and a putting contest on the greens.
Related to course defense, TPC Craig Ranch puts up very little resistance in any area. While Rowlett Creek is present on many holes it does not threaten players in most instances unless they spray their tee shot. The only other real threat to tamper scoring would be the gusty winds that courses in Texas have a reputation for. Looking at the early weather forecast, heavy rains are supposed to pound the area on Thursday which will only soften the greens and allow for target practice on approach. As of now, winds are forecast to gust between 20-30 mph each day of the tournament. That might be the only chance of keeping the winning score below 25-under again.
For agronomy this week, there is a mixture of three types of grasses. The fairways are Zoysia grass which is a spongy turf somewhat similar to Paspalum. TPC Southwind and East Lake are other courses with Zoysia fairways. The rough is Bermuda and last year was increased in length to 2.75” inches to toughen the course though not to much avail. Greens are bentgrass and will run at an average of 11.5 on the stimpmeter.
Hole Preview
From the routing of the holes to the bunkering and green complexes, it’s as bland of a course as there is on the PGA Tour. Designer, Tom Weiskopf has a reputation for building uniform courses that are straightforward and without nuance. TPC Craig Ranch definitely fits this mold. It lacks any memorable or strategic holes with the exception, perhaps, of the driveable par-4 14th.
Weiskopf loved incorporating at least one driveable par-4 in each of his designs. Measuring around 330 yards, the 14th hole forces players to hit a downhill tee shot with water on the left and multiple bunkers surrounding the green. Reaching the green on the tee shot is a challenge, and it should at least provide some excitement during the week. Through the first three years of play, it has a birdie or better rate of 40%.
The front nine is adjacent to the Sam Rayburn Highway while the back nine is located in a residential setting. There are several lengthy par 4s where distance off the tee is an advantage including six that play over 465 yards. Each of the three par-5s are less than 570 yards and reachable in two shots. They hold a Birdie or Better rate of 6% higher than the Tour average when going for the green on the second shot and rate as the fifth easiest on Tour with a scoring average of only 4.59.
The par-3s are the most challenging section of holes at TPC Craig Ranch. Three of them play over 215 yards and they average over par. They play as four of the toughest eight holes on the course.
Strokes Gained Analysis
Off the Tee
Everything off the tee is easier at TPC Craig Ranch. With the lack of hazards and non-penal rough players are free to bomb away with driver. Most of the fairways are routed around the meandering Rowlett Creek and players have little fear of any danger. With the eighth widest fairways on Tour at 37 yards on average, this course is the seventh easiest to gain strokes off the tee. Because wayward tee shots are rarely penalized it becomes second-shot target practice into the greens.
While distance off the tee is an advantage simply because it allows for shorter approach shots with higher lofted clubs and closer proximity to the hole, accurate drivers who are not bombers have had plenty of high finishes on the leaderboard. Two-time winner K.H. Lee has ranked in the middle of the pack in driving distance while other shorter hitters like Seamus Power, Matt Kuchar, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout have also had high finishes. In 2022, seven of the top 14 on the leaderboard lost to the field in driving distance.
Approach
On approach, 36.4% of shots have come from 200+ yards. That is 10% more than the Tour average from that range. Not only is the Greens in Regulation rate 4% easier than average but the GIR rate when missing the fairway is one of the highest on Tour at 59%. With the 15th largest greens, proximity to the hole numbers are a little further than normal, but the ease of putting on these greens cancels out that slight difficulty.
Because gaining strokes off the tee is so easy, it’s the definition of a second-shot course. Last year, TPC Craig Ranch was the second-easiest course to gain strokes on approach. Last year, half of the top 30 players on the leaderboard gained at least three strokes on approach. In 2022, eight of the top 11 in approach finished in the top-17 overall.
Around the Green and Putting
With players hitting the greens at a 70% clip, even those missing have little to worry about when scrambling for par. These are not difficult green complexes by any means. They have little contour and the rough surrounding them is not much of an issue. Scrambling and around the green play rate as the easiest on Tour.
Similar to around-the-green play, putting on these smooth bentgrass greens was the third easiest to gain strokes on Tour. Everything from one-putt percentage to three-putt avoidance ranks as very easy. With everyone hitting greens at a high rate this will ultimately turn into a putting contest. Targeting players who can spike with their flat stick, especially on bentgrass greens, is something to strongly consider this week.
Most Important Stats For Success at TPC Craig Ranch
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Birdie or Better %
- Proximity 200+
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Par 4 BoB%
- Par 5 BoB%
- Driving Distance
- SG: Easy Scoring Conditions
- SG: Weak Field Events
- SG: Long Courses
Key Rabbit Hole Filters
- Region: Texas
- Scoring Conditions: Very Easy
- Course Length: Long
- Field Strength: Weak
- Greens Surface: Bentgrass
- Fairway Surface: Zoysia
- Rough Surface: Bermuda
- OTT Club: Driver Heavy
- Missed Fwy Penalty: Low
- Gain OTT/APP/ARG/PUTT: Very Easy
Weather Forecast – McKinney, Texas
