The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week before next week’s Signature Event at Quail Hollow as we ramp up for the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks. This is the fourth year of McKinney, Texas’ TPC Craig Ranch as the host venue for the Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch rates out as one of the easiest tracks on the schedule, playing more like your local muni and less like a PGA Championship tune-up for the few top-tier players in this week’s field.
The elite tier loses its edge when a course plays as easily as this place projects to play, so my outright bets will come from further down the board. The TPC Craig Ranch fairways are wide, the green complexes are large, and all Par-5s are reachable in two. Apparently, they didn’t like the 50%+ birdie rate on hole no. 12, so that was changed from a 547-yard Par 5 to a 493-yard Par 4 last year and will remain in play this year. Overall, I’m focusing on approach play and birdie opportunities this week, hoping someone can scorch these bentgrass greens for four straight days.
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This is a great week for the customization available via the Rabbit Hole. I’m focusing on golfers who enter in solid form, but I’m focusing on performance in five key splits this week when building out my model:
-courses with easy/very easy scoring conditions
-long/very long courses
-driver-heavy off the tee
-low missed fairway penalty
-birdie or better rates
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC Craig Ranch:
Featuring easy scoring conditions, few hazards, wide-open fairways, and large receptive greens, TPC Craig Ranch is a prototypical TPC course. It certainly fits the eyes of K.H. Lee, who won this event in two of the three years in which the tournament was held here. With an average winning score of 25 under par, it is a birdie-makers paradise that inevitably boils down to a putting contest. Along with “spike putting” ability, long-iron/wood approach play is the key “separator” when determining golfers to target this week.
TPC Craig Ranch is a par 71 course that can be stretched out to 7,414 from the championship tees. In the first two editions here of the Byron Nelson, it played as a par 72. Attempting to make the course less scoreable, the 12th hole was shortened from 547 yards to 493 yards and plays as a par 4 instead of a par 5. It’s a track where length off the tee certainly helps as it ranks as the 10th longest course on Tour.
Everything off the tee is easier at TPC Craig Ranch. With the lack of hazards and non-penal rough players are free to bomb away with driver. Most of the fairways are routed around the meandering Rowlett Creek, and players have little fear of any danger. With the eighth widest fairways on Tour at 37 yards on average, this course is the seventh easiest to gain strokes off the tee. Because wayward tee shots are rarely penalized it becomes second-shot target practice into the greens.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074bNoonan’s Byron Nelson Betting Targets
Stephan Jaeger
Stephan Jaeger checks all the boxes for me this week. He ranks inside the top 10 in all of the above metrics that I’m focused on and has played his best when he’s able to grip it and rip it off the tee. He banked two T3 finishes this season prior to his win in Houston, and those came at driver-heavy stops at Torrey Pines and in Mexico. Jaeger’s increased his distance by nearly 7 yards this season, which is one of the biggest jumps on Tour this season.
He comes in as the second-ranked player in my model this week, dragged down by his putting splits. It’s interesting to see his struggles on the green while realizing that he’s still 13th in birdie or better rate over the past 36 rounds. His ball-striking performances have increased his birdie opportunities, and it’s worth noting that he gained over a stroke per round on the greens here last season on his way to a T11 (-18) finish.
Tom Hoge
“Tommy Tables” has been one of the best iron players on Tour for years now, but his 2024 performance is dwarfing all prior years. He’s gaining nearly 0.7 more strokes per round on approach than he did last season, leading this week’s field in SG: APP over the last 36 rounds played.
Hoge’s irons have always been solid, but the strides made on the greens are nearly as impressive and impactful to Hoge’s run of seven T20 or better finishes in 13 starts this season. Hoge has gained strokes putting in all but two starts this season, and over the past 12 months, he’s gained at least 1 stroke putting in 34.94% of his rounds. Hoge ranks third in my model this week, and I was surprised to see him available above 30/1.
Adam Schenk
Adam Schenk’s breakout 2023 season showed him to be a bit of a streaky form player, and that current form is worth riding at this set-up at 55/1. A less-than-stellar short-game performance at Harbour Town led to a T49 finish for Schenk, but he finished T5 at TPC San Antonio and T12 at the Masters in his two previous starts.
Outside of last year’s solo second-place finish at the Valspar, Schenk’s top performances came within shouting distance of other strong showings. He followed up a solo second at Colonial with a T7 finish at the Memorial. A solo seventh in Detroit was backed by a T4 at Deere Run, and he capped his year off with two T9 finishes in two of the three playoff legs. He’s gained strokes on approach in three straight events, and if he makes it four this week, he’ll likely be in contention.
- To Win: 55/1 DraftKings
- Top 40: -110 BetRivers
Mark Hubbard
Mark Hubbard hasn’t been in contention much outside of last week’s third-place finish in the Zurich team event, but he surprisingly topped my model this week, so I feel obligated to bet him at 70/1 to win.
His ball-striking has been fairly consistent, and he’s been at his best in weaker field, low-scoring set-ups like we’re looking at this week.
