2024 Valero Texas Open – Betting Preview

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With one week left before the Masters Tournament and the year’s first major, the PGA Tour gathers at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio for the 102nd edition of the Valero Texas Open. This tournament was founded in 1922 and is the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour. It has been held in the San Antonio area since its origins and has moved to many different courses before finding its current home in 2010 when Adam Scott raised the trophy.

TPC San Antonio winds through the narrow corridors of the Cibolo Canyons, just north of the second most populous city in Texas. With fairways lined by brush and mature oak trees, tricky pin positions on elevated greens, one of the toughest sets of par 5s on Tour, and gusty “Texas” winds, it plays as the 13th toughest annual PGA course with golfers averaging -0.01 strokes per round. It is a unique layout in that it balances narrow tree-lined alleys with wider fairways which provide strategic angles for approach shots.

There have been some shocking winners in the event in past years. From Corey Conners winning as a qualifier in 2019 to Andrew Landry at 200-1 in 2018 and Steven Bowditch triumphing in 2014 with odds of 350-1, anything is possible on the leaderboard come Sunday. Ultimately, it’s a complete challenge from tee to green that doesn’t favor any specific type of player. Keeping the ball in play off the tee, hitting accurate approaches to the proper quadrant on the greens, and gaining shots on the field on the par 5s are among the ingredients needed for success.

The Field

30 players are choosing this event as their warm-up for Augusta National. It includes, perhaps, one of the best fields ever in San Antonio with six of the top-12 players in the world including Rory McIlroy, Brian Harman, Ludvig Aberg, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tommy Fleetwood. Other headliners include Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Russell Henley and two-time winner here Corey Conners.

For golfers not yet into the Masters field, it is the last chance players will have to make it into Augusta with the winner earning a spot in next week’s field. Motivation will be high for those not qualified. Overall, it’s a great week to chase unqualified golfers as eight of the past eleven winners were not originally in the Masters field. On the flip side, certain Masters participants have appeared to use this week for different purposes. Masters champion, Jordan Spieth won here in 2021 while another stalwart at Augusta National, Conners (three top-10s) has won twice in the last four years at TPC San Antonio. Certain other players have used the week to work on shots in a competitive atmosphere to prepare for next week.

Past Winners/Odds

Betting Thoughts

With many people already focusing on the Masters, the smart thing is to avoid all of the noise and focus on making a profit this week. One of the largest angles I am attacking relates to my “Core 4” model and a grouping of metrics I believe are paramount in moving up the leaderboard. Simply put, I am targeting players who have past success on other difficult scoring courses, who are strong in both long and short-term SG: Approach, and also in certain “Safety” metrics including Good Drive %, Sand Save %, and Bogey Avoidance.

Neither distance nor complete accuracy is vital off the tee at TPC San Antonio. The fact that you do not need to have length here is evidenced by the fact that the last seven winners have averaged 48th for Driving Distance. 2022’s winner J.J. Spaun ranked 95th, and last year Corey Conners ranked 106th. As for Driving Accuracy, back in 2019, the top five finishers averaged ninth. This was followed by 2021’s winner, Jordan Spieth, ranking 109th in fairways gained. The last two years it swung back the other way with Spaun ranking seventh and Conners third. While almost every driving hole is flanked by either rocky terrain or native Texas brush, it will only impact those who are wildly spraying their ball off the tee. Golfers simply need to keep the ball in play off the tee to give themselves a chance to hit the green on this true “second-shot” course.

All the seeming variety and randomness off the tee is a definite reason TPC San Antonio is one of the top “second-shot” courses as it is the seventh toughest layout to gain strokes on approach. Players entering this event who are hot with their irons are my first priority. Each of the past eight winners here gained at least three strokes in approach in the event before their victory. Golfers that fit that criteria this week include Akshay Bhatia, Hideki Matsuyama, J.J. Spaun, Ludvig Aberg, Keith Mitchell, Eric Cole, Rory McIlroy, and Matt Fitzpatrick

Not only are the greens heavily guarded by difficult and deep bunkers, but many are also elevated above the fairway and do not provide bailout areas for errant shots. Players will also need to loft approach shots onto the proper quadrants of the greens due to the many undulations to get the ball to funnel as close to the pin as possible. Other than SG: Approach, there is such little correlation here with any other data point, most likely because TPC San Antonio doesn’t fit any singular type of player. Evidence of this is the fact that there have been so many mid-range and longshot winners here.

Another angle that I am factoring relates to performance the week before a major. While some think that the best players will be using this week to prepare for next week’s Masters, the data below shows that players like McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and Corey Conners are playing to win this week. In eight pre-major starts, Brian Harman has struggled, losing stokes in 26 rounds. He will not be on my betting card anywhere this week.

Finally, keep an eye on the weather forecast for Friday. As of now, with winds forecast to increase around 11 AM on Friday, it appears there is an advantage to favoring the PM/AM wave.

Most Important Stats For Success at the Valero Texas Open

SG: APP
Bogey Avoidance
Par 5 Scoring
Scrambling
Good Drive %
Birdie or Better %
SG: Putting (Poa Trivialis courses)
SG: Wind
Sand Save %
Proximity 50-125 yds

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Texas
Comp Courses: PGA National, Riviera, Colonial, Memorial Park, Innisbrook, TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Bay Hill
Scoring Conditions: Difficult
Greens Surface: Poa Trivialis
OTT Gain: Difficult
OTT Club: Mixed
Fairway Accuracy: Difficult
APP Gain: Very Difficult
GIR Accuracy: Difficult
Rough Penalty: Low
Par 5 Scoring: Difficult
Sand Saves: Difficult
Gain Putting > 15′: Difficult

Valero Texas Open – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.