The Valero Texas Open is the calm before next week’s storm at Augusta National. While most of the world’s elite are skipping the trip to San Antonio, 30 players have chosen this event as their warm-up for Augusta National. It includes, perhaps, one of the best fields ever in San Antonio, with six of the top-12 players in the “current OWGR” list, and provides one last opportunity for anyone not in next week’s field to punch their ticket with a win.
This Greg Norman design is pretty straightforward. It plays 7,438 yards from the tips as a Par-72. The fairways are narrow and firm, but the rough isn’t overly penial. Wayward drives are penalized, though, because the course uses a lot of the natural layout surrounding it, like rocky waste areas, tall native grass, and plants.
This setup brings every golfer into play. It’s a long course, with difficult-to-reach Par-5s, which forces a lot of layups and common landing spots among the field. Distance is always king, but it is not a requirement here. Off the tee, I’d prefer accuracy (in the form of distance from the edge of the fairway), or at least lean toward a golfer ranking higher in Good Drives% than one who thrives on driving distance. Approach ranges vary, but we see a higher dispersion of both long irons (200+ yards) and wedges (100 yards and in) here because of the length. Wedge play will be key on the Par-5s, and holding greens with long irons is tricky here, especially if the wind is acting up, so scrambling is also essential to success.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about TPC San Antonio:
The data shows that general accuracy off the tee does not matter as much because the rough is among the least penal on the entire Tour. In fact, the average margin between hitting a green-in-regulation from the rough compared to the fairway is 9% easier than the Tour average. Even more amazing is that the Birdie or Better percentage over the last five years when hitting the second shot from the rough is higher than from the fairway!
All the seeming variety and randomness off the tee is a definite reason TPC San Antonio is one of the top “second-shot” courses as it is the eighth toughest layout to gain strokes on approach. Not only are the greens heavily guarded by difficult and deep bunkers, but many are also elevated above the fairway and do not provide bailout areas for errant shots. Players will also need to loft approach shots onto the proper quadrants of the greens due to the many undulations to get the ball to funnel as close to the pin as possible.
As can be deduced, when scoring is easier, thanks to calmer winds, the importance of around-the-green play is decreased. So the amount this area should be weighted will be heavily dependent on the weather forecast. It is interesting to note that six of the last eight winners have ranked outside the top 30 in SG: ARG. And of the last ten winners, only Spieth in 2021 was gaining strokes with their short game in the six months leading up to their Valero win.
While the overseeded Poa trivialis greens are contoured and sloping to various degrees, this affects players more on approach than with putting. TPC San Antonio ranks in the middle of the pack related to putting difficulty and is one of the slower surfaces on Tour with a stimpmeter reading of 10.
We have partnered with Vivid Picks to bring you an easy way to claim a FREE, no-strings-attached 2024 season at Betsperts Golf, plus a 100% deposit match up to $250! Click here to learn more!
There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, and my goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
f684b2f3d4218ee06dad551b3bb2074b*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
Noonan’s Valero Texas Open Betting Targets
Russell Henley
Russell Henley hasn’t teed it up at TPC San Antonio since 2019, but with match play falling off the 2024 schedule, a number of golfers have added the Valero onto their schedule to get ready for next week at Augusta.
I’m surprised that this isn’t a Henley staple event because his game is well-suited for success around TPC San Antonio. He keeps the ball in play off the tee, and he’s an exceptional short-iron player who is arguably one of the best on Tour and in this field. His lack of distance can work against him on certain tracks, but just like he did during his T4 finish at last year’s Masters, he’ll likely turn all of this week’s Par 5s into three-shot holes, and take advantage of his exceptional wedge play from 150-yards and in.
Back-to-back 73s at TPC Sawgrass weren’t good enough to make the cut, his first missed cut of 2024. He does have two other T4 finishes in 2024 (Arnold Palmer and Sony), and I’m looking to back him at 40/1 to find his way into the mix again this week.
- To Win: 40/1 BetMGM
- Top 30: +110 DraftKings
Harris English
It’s clear that Harris English is finally healthy again, and he’s playing some of the best golf of his career entering major season. He’s finished T21 or better in four straight starts and six of eight to start 2024. His distance is up, and his +4.5 adjusted yards above the Tour average is his best mark since 2019. Inconsistent iron play is his bugaboo, but he’s gained an average of 0.72 strokes per round on approach over his past three starts.
This is his first appearance at TPC San Antonio since 2019, but I’m not concerned with course history this week. English’s strong play off the tee is at the root of his 2024 success and will play a role in why he’ll thrive this week.
- Top Win: 45/1 FanDuel
- Top 30: +110 DraftKings
Akshay Bhatia
Any 22-year-old golfer’s profile will have peaks and valleys, but Akshay Bhatia’s peaks are getting higher, and the valleys are becoming less frequent. Last week’s ball-striking clinic at the Houston Open was nearly good enough to take home the crown, and at one point, Bhatia had the outright lead to himself during Sunday’s final round. With all four rounds in the 60s, Bhatia was second in last week’s field in SG: APP while hitting fairways at the highest rate (71.2%).
With TPC San Antonio being another place that rewards distance and accuracy, plus it’s one of the toughest spots on Tour to gain on approach, I like leaning on white-hot form like Bhatia brings this week.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.