2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic – Betting Preview

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The PGA Tour rolls on to the Motor City and Rocket Mortgage Classic as we head down the stretch toward the year’s final major and the FedExCup Playoffs that follow. Coming off two “Signature” events sandwiched around the U.S. Open, it’s a much weaker field than typical as most upper-tier golfers will be taking a much-deserved breather from the recent gauntlet of tournaments.

The Detroit Golf Club is a classical, tree-lined, Donald Ross-designed course that has been one of the most prolific birdie-making courses on the Tour. Established in 1899, the club has a long history, with the North Course (1916) being the oldest annual course in the Tour rotation. This year’s tournament is the sixth edition with past champions including Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Davis, and last year’s winner, one of Detroit’s adopted sons, Rickie Fowler.

While longer hitters (DeChambeau, Davis, Finau, Taylor Pendrith) have flourished here due to the lack of hazards off the tee, all playing styles have had success with many shorter hitters (Nate Lashley, J.J. Spaun, Troy Merritt, Chris Kirk) finishing high on past leaderboards. Skilled putters who are strong with their wedges and are proven par-5 scorers are the best players to target at Detroit Golf Club.

The Field

Due to an unfortunate spot on the PGA Tour schedule, the golf-crazed fans of metro Detroit will see one of the weaker fields of the year. There is not a single player ranked in the top 20 in this field. Contenders from last week’s Travelers Championship – Cam Young, Tom Kim, and Akshay Bhatia – along with Chris Kirk, Min Woo Lee, Will Zalatoris, Stephan Jaeger, Nicolai Hojgaard, Robert Macintyre, and Fowler are the only players in the top 50 of the world rankings expected to tee it up this week.

With dozens of players shut out from playing in the small-field “Signature” events, there is a relatively deep group of second-tier players in attendance including Daniel Berger, 2021 winner Cam Davis, Taylor Moore, Keith Mitchell, Alex Noren, Aaron Rai, Maverick McNealy, Adam Svensson, and Eric Cole. Along with Kirk, Jaeger, and Macintyre, several other players have PGA Tour wins this year that are in the field like Pendrith, Nick Dunlap, Jake Knapp, Peter Malnati, Davis Riley, and Chris Gotterup.

Past Winners/Odds

Betting Thoughts

In low-scoring birdie fests such as at Detroit Golf Club this week, history at this event tells us that the recipe for success is quite simple. Because the course does not penalize poor shots, and players are free to bomb away with driver and attack flags on approach, there is not much separation between great and below-average tee-to-green play. This, in essence, boils the tournament down to a putting contest.

That being said, driving distance presents a huge edge off the tee. The top of leaderboards at Detroit Golf Club in its first five years as a Tour event has been a veritable group of bombers off the tee including DeChambeau, Finau, Pendrith, and Cameron Young who was runner-up in 2022. Fairways are generous and wider than average at over 35 yards, making them the 10th widest on Tour. With few hazards or penal fairway bunkers, there are no forced layups or “danger” areas off the tee. Players are free to blast away with driver which is evidenced by 78% of drives hit over 280 yards and a distance average of 296 yards. Those with extra length will have wedges and short irons into greens on every par 4. Over an inch of rainfall already his week has the course playing as soft as it ever has. This places even more value on a metric like Carry Distance.

With golfers unable to separate themselves that much off the tee due to the lack of any penalty for wayward drives, Detroit Golf Club is a definite second-shot course. Over 46% of approach shots come from under 150 yards, which is one of the highest wedge/short-iron rates on Tour. With so many scoring holes combined with a Greens in Regulation (GIR) rate from the fairway at well over 80%, proximity to the hole on these Donald Ross greens will also be key this week. With greens very soft, players who can control their spin and keep their approach shots below the sloped greens will be in a great position to contend this week.

In such an easy-scoring environment, more golfers have a chance to outperform their normal baseline. Combine this with the fact that none of the upper-tier golfers stand out above the others, and the reasoning for selecting numerous mid-tier/longshots on the betting board becomes clear. Whether it’s Alex Noren (+3300) or Matt Wallace (+6500), there is a wide range of players who have the all-important combination this week of gaining on approach along with the ability to make putts in bunches.

Speaking of putting, these birdie-fest type of events allow almost any player that gets hot with the flat stick to have a chance to contend. When looking at the numbers of past winners, this is one the most important putting courses on Tour. Putting on these surfaces is not easy. While these Donald Ross greens have lost some of their natural movement over the decades, many still feature back-to-front sloping which is typical of his designs. They rate as the 10th most difficult greens on which to gain strokes putting. And yet, close to 40% of all strokes gained on this course come with the flat stick. That is well above the typical average of 35%. The undulated areas around some of the pin placements make putting even tougher from inside five feet averaging as the 6th toughest.

My overall betting strategy is to embrace the volatility of this event and to select a wide range of mid-tier and longshot options that rank high in my Core 4 metric this week which includes Carry Distance, wedge play from 50-125 yards, par 5 BoB% and my unique putting model.

Most Important Stats For Success at Detroit Golf Club

Birdie or Better %
SG: Approach
SG: Putting (Bent/Poa)
Par 5 BoB%
Par 4 BoB%
Driving Distance
SG: Easy Scoring Courses
Proximity: 50-125 yds
Putting 5-15 feet
SG: ARG

Key Rabbit Hole Filters

Course Region: Midwest
Scoring Conditions: Very Easy
Field Strength: Weak
Field Size: Full Field
Greens Surface: Bent/Poa
Green Size: Small
Rough Surface: Bluegrass
Architect: Donald Ross
Gain OTT: Easy
OTT Club Type: Driver Heavy
Fairway Accuracy: Easy
GIR Accuracy: Easy
Missed Fairway Penalty: Low
Gain Putting: Difficult

Weather Forecast – Detroit, Michigan

Rocket Mortgage Classic – Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1f7DdAqgMu4KBTBVYFlU3j5SjP64xhM3BVPBNGeKfuJs/edit?usp=sharing