We pause this regularly scheduled program for a bit of a hiatus, a reprieve if you will, for the third iteration of Olympic golf in our lifetime. After not being a part of the Summer Olympic festivities for over 100 years, golf made its way to the Olympic Games in Brazil back in 2016, with Justin Rose taking home the gold medal. Xander Schauffele took home the gold at the 2020 Tokyo Games and comes into this year’s games at Le Golf National in Paris as the hottest player in the world.
The International Golf Federation (IGF) utilizes the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) to establish the Olympic Golf Rankings (OGR) for determining eligibility. The top 15 world-ranked players are eligible for the Olympics, with a maximum of four players from any single country. Beyond the top 15, players become eligible based on their world rankings, with a maximum of two eligible players from each country that does not already have two or more players among the top 15. This process continues until a total of 60 athletes are reached, including continental places.
This will play as a shorter Par-71 track at just under 7,200 yards from the tips. It’s also worth noting that this is a no-cut event, which we’ve grown accustomed to this season.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here are a few interesting tidbits about Le Golf National:
As for the course, it’s a Florida-style design with a hint of Irish links and a lot of French flair sprinkled in. Boasting narrow fairways, gnarly rough, tricky green complexes, water on 10 holes, and one of the toughest closing stretches in the world, Le Golf National is a difficult test of golf. The Albatros Course has a hefty slope rating of 155, the highest a course can be given.
Nine combined players from both the American and European Ryder Cup teams in 2018 will be in action at Le Golf National this week. The setup will differ greatly from that event six years ago with three cuts of gradually increasing rough returning for this competition. 27 out of the 60 golfers in the field have also experienced Le Golf National playing in the French Open, an annual DP World Tour event.
With only 60 golfers in the tournament combined with the four-player cap per country, only 20 of the top 50 in the world rankings will be in Paris. It’s a shorter par 71 that will extend to 7,174 yards, with varying complexities as it combines the traditional style of a links track with the modern features of target golf and the plentiful water hazards of a Florida-style design.
Many believe that Le Golf National resembles TPC Sawgrass in numerous ways, including its amphitheater stadium-style viewing areas, its overall length, its emphasis on accuracy and strategy over distance off the tee, and its risk-reward drama on three of the final four holes, including two island greens at 15 and 18.
Finding the fairway off the tee is paramount as the course has very narrow fairways combined with penal rough that is a blend of ryegrass and fescue. The rough was never in play for the 2018 Ryder Cup as Le Golf National superintendent Lucas Pierre explained that the first cut of rough (2.5 inches), the second cut (3.5 inches), and the third cut (4.7 inches) were eliminated at European captain Thomas Bjorn’s choosing. All three cuts have been re-implemented for this tournament. Though the width of the fairways hasn’t changed, the effective landing areas will be more forgiving with the first cut back in play. Bomb and gouge with driver is not a viable option.
Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. My full card and any live in-tournament bets will be posted here.
My top 5 Rabbit Hole key stats this week:
- Driving Accuracy Hybrid (2:1 Distance From the Edge of the Fairway + Driving Accuracy)
- SG: T2G (Scoring Conditions – Average, Difficult, and Very Difficult Last 2 Years)
- SG: BS (Water Danger – HIGH, Last 3 Years)
- SG: BS (Off the Tee Club: Less than driver + Missed Fairway Penalty: High, Last 2 Years)
- SG: APP (Course Length: Short, Green Size: Large, Last 2 Years)
Noonan’s Paris Olympics Betting Picks
If you missed it live on Monday morning, I reviewed the course, my expectations on how it’ll play, and a deep dive into the key stats above.
After backing him at the Travelers, Scottish, and Open Championship, I’m pot-committed to Collin Morikawa. While backing what will likely be the most popular outright selection at this event is not my favorite approach, I understand why the general consensus on Morikawa will be overwhelmingly positive this week.
First, let’s look at his recent form. In his ten most recent starts, which date back to the Masters in April, Morikawa’s worst finish was T16 at both the Open Championship and Wells Fargo. Six of the ten starts have seen Morikawa finish inside the top ten, five of which were T4 or better. He’s been so close. As Xander Schauffele has proven this season, good things happen when you put yourself in contention week in and week out.
Now, Morikawa deserves a small bit of criticism for not being able to close, and the final round is his worst strokes-gained mark of the four, but over the past 12 months, he’s still nearly a full stroke (0.93) better than the field.
All of that aside, Morikawa’s game is perfectly suited for what Le Golf National will ask of this week’s participants. In the model I ran this week, he finished second to Scottie Scheffler, but he was the only golfer to rank in the top ten in every metric I looked at. Because he hasn’t closed in the way that Scheffler and Schauffele have, I have to acknowledge that he’s a tier below them right now, but it’s difficult to make a data-based argument that says he’s not sitting atop a large group right behind them.
But we’re placing a bet here, not picking a winner in a vacuum. This course has a lot in common with TPC Sawgrass, and Scottie Scheffler has dominated there over the past few years. This year’s win came at the expense of a few golfers, including Xander Schauffele, who Scheffler chased down on the back 9 on his way to hoisting the ‘Golden Boy’ on Sunday afternoon. But Morikawa’s odds are twice that of Schauffele (+550), and Scheffler’s (+400) is even shorter. At 12/1, Morikawa is getting the single-bullet treatment from me in Paris.
To Win: +1200 FanDuel
