Instead of heading to Florida, as has typically been the case at the end of the West Coast Swing, the PGA Tour first heads to its lone stop in Mexico. Located a few miles off the Pacific coast near the town of Puerto Vallarta, the Vidanta Vallarta Resort (one of the highest-rated hotels in Mexico) and its “Signature Course” designed by LIV Golf CEO Greg Norman, will host this event for the third time. The inaugural tournament in 2022 was won by Jon Rahm at 17-under and was followed by Tony Finau’s victory last year at 24-under.
Dating back to 1944, the Mexico Open has quite a historical past and has been considered Mexico’s national championship. With the PGA Tour pulling out of certain World Golf Championship (WGC) events a few years ago, such as the one at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan, Mexico, this tournament is an official FedExCup event with a purse of $8.1 million and 500 points to the winner.
With its considerable length, it is a course that favors bombers off the tee and excellent players on approach from over 200 yards. Like most resort-style courses near the ocean, coastal winds and familiarity with Paspalum grass could play a significant factor in determining the winner.
The Field
As has been the case in the previous two years, overall, the strength of this field is quite weak. With its positioning in the schedule along with it being an international event on a “bombers” course, it is easy to see why few top-ranked players would choose to make the trip.
Headlining the 132-player field is last year’s defending Mexico Open champion, and world No. 24 Tony Finau. After him, the only other players in the top 50 teeing it up at Vidanta Vallarta are Nicolai Hojgaard (No. 33), Emiliano Grillo (No. 35) and Ryan Fox (No. 36). This field has more depth than last year’s with 21 total players ranked in the top 100 in the world. Last year’s only had eight in total.
Betting Strategy
While Hideki Matsuyama is one of the bigger names in golf, he was close to continuing the “Longshot” trend of winners as he checked in last week as low as 80-1 before catching a bit of steam as the week progressed. Nevertheless, that is now seven consecutive winners to start the year at 75-1 or lower.
Chris Kirk: 200-1
Grayson Murray: 400-1
Nick Dunlap: 300-1
Matthieu Pavon: 130-1
Wyndham Clark: 100-1
Nick Taylor: 175-1
Hideki Matsuyama 75-1
With a weak and wide-open field in Mexico, there’s a high chance we get another unexpected winner at low odds. Tony Finau’s putting woes along with odds much too high for his inconsistencies pushed me towards a couple of European players who have six combined worldwide wins and who are perfect course fits with their elite games OTT in Nicolai Hojgaard and Ryan Fox. At the top of the board, I also jumped on Stephan Jaeger at 28-1. He has been trending upward for a while now, and though he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling yet, he did just finish with his highest placing on Tour – 3rd at the Farmers – which is a similarly lengthy track to Vidanta Vallarta.
The Mexico Open is an interesting event played on a relatively new course and with an extremely weak field. Usually, this is an event where if you know the lower-tier players well and do your research, there are edges to be gained. Every week is an opportunity and I think you have to view it that way. Player odds are hard to wrap your head around but that is how it is at weak-field events. Only having two events played here also removes course history from the equation because it is not enough sample size to make any judgments on solely last year’s results.
That being said, there is a pretty clear recipe for success here. Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,456 yards. It ranks as the 6th longest course on Tour. The course gets much of its teeth from some lengthy par-4s. Five of them measure at least 475 yards and are especially challenging when played into the wind. They combined to average 0.26 strokes over par with a birdie or better rate of only 7.9%. Three of the par-5s are massive with two over 600 yards including the 12th hole which is beastly in length at 637 yards and an eagle rate of only 0.9%. In fact, Vidanta Vallarta has the longest combination of par-4s and par-5s on Tour.
Driving distance is crucial this week. I crossed scores of shorter hitters off my list this week right from the start. Off the tee, players will be met with wide landing areas on fairways that are perfect for bombers who love to hit a ton of drivers. Almost 78% of drives were over 280 yards which is one of the highest rates on Tour.
That being said there are always outliers. Just because a course fits Player A better than Player B, doesn’t mean Player B can’t play well. But it definitely gives them much fewer paths to success. Shorter hitters like Brandon Wu, Emiliano Grillo and David Lipsky have played well here over the first two iterations. As for Wu, he finished 1st and 7th putting for the week. Anybody who gets a hot putter can contend anywhere. Even Grillo gained a combined 7.2 SG: P. Lipsky gained 10 strokes on Approach and led the field in Proximity by a huge margin in Prox from 200+ that week.
Over the first two years, long hitters like Rahm, Finau, Cameron Champ, Kurt Kitayama, and Patrick Rodgers filled the top 10 of the leaderboard. Multiple players have commented already this week on the fairways being softer due this event being played two months earlier for the first time instead of in April. Along with the rough being non-penal, the slower paspalum fairways will give an added bonus to those with longer Carry Distance, which is another important “bomber” stat to look for this week because the course will play even longer.
I am basing many of my bets on how well players rate in my “Core 4” sub-model for the week. This ranking narrows the tournament down to the four most important metrics for the week. For the Mexico Open, this includes Carry Distance, Proximity from 200+ yards (42% of approaches come from this range), my Scoring model (includes BoB% and Par 5 Scoring), and past performance on other similar courses that play long and easy with weak fields.
Most Important Stats For Success at the Mexico Open
*In order of importance
- SG: APP
- Proximity 200+ yds
- Driving Distance
- BoB%
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Long/Very Long Courses
- SG: Winds 15+ mph
- SG: Total – Paspalum
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Par 3
Weather Forecast – Nuevo Vallarta, Mexico
Mexico Open – Final Model
In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG), and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of these specific metrics and conditions can be found in “The Rabbit Hole“, with my final model exclusively published here and in the Discord for subscribers.
Rankings range for players that were not included in the model due to a lack of recent PGA Tour data sample size…
Olesen 7-10
Gotterup 40-50
Campillo, Dumont de Chassart 45-60
Chan Kim 60-75
Outright Betting Selections
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
*Lines accurate at the time of publication.
Nicolai Hojgaard +1800 (currently +1400)
When looking at weighted SG: Total over the past six months, Hojgaard has been the 28th-best player in the world gaining an average of 1.2 strokes per round. He is a young, elite talent who is on a tear with four top-7 finishes in the last three months including winning the DP World Tour Championship and finishing second at the Farmers Insurance Open. He is a definite “course-fit” guy this week with his distance OTT and long-iron play.
(1.3u) BetMGM
Stephan Jaeger +2800 (currently +2500)
While Jaeger typically doesn’t spike high enough to challenge for wins, he has one of the highest consistent floors on Tour with T20s in six of his past 14 starts. And here in Mexico he has finishes of 18th and 15th. He also recently finished third at Torrey Pines which is a similar long course to Vidanta Vallarta. Considering the improvements in his ball-striking combined with such a weak field, Jaeger has the potential to walk away with his first PGA Tour victory this week.
(0.82u) BetMGM
Ryan Fox +4000 (currently +3500)
The 3-time DP World Tour winner is getting more used to playing on the PGA Tour with every passing week, Fox’s combination of high upside and low ownership is very appealing this week. With course history not being a factor here in Mexico, his overall experience and course fit should allow him to contend. He was T10 through 36 holes in Phoenix and Vidanta fits him even better where he can play to his strengths of power OTT and elite long-iron game.
(0.60u) BetMGM
Alejandro Tosti +8000 (currently +6600)
Out of all the Korn Ferry golfers to gain their PGA Tour card, Tosti has the highest upside in my opinion. He finished 10th here last year and has both the length and birdie-making firepower to be in the mix come Sunday.
(0.29u) FanDuel
Finishing Position Picks
Top 10 – FanDuel
- Tony Finau +110 (1.5u)
Top 20
- Nicolai Hojgaard +105 (2u) – FanDuel
- Keith Mitchell +130 (1u) – BetRivers
- Emiliano Grillo +130 (1u) – DraftKings
- Stephan Jaeger +135 (1u) – DraftKings
Top 30 – all BetRivers
- Thomas Detry -125 (1.3)
- Thorbjorn Olesen -106 (1.1u)
- Patrick Rodgers +105 (1.5u)
- Mark Hubbard +115 (1u)
- Ryan Fox +120 (1.2u)
- Brandon Wu +115 (1u)
- Cameron Champ +140 (1u)
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images