This year’s Mexico Open returns to a Greg Norman “Signature Course” on the coast near Puerto Vallarta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort.
Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures 7,456 yards. It ranks as the 7th longest course on Tour. It is a unique track with five par-3s to go with four par-5s and only nine par-4s. While the par-3s are average in length, five of the par-4s are over 475 yards, and three of the par-5s are over 585 yards. I’m building a card around bombers this week with minimal rough, wide-open fairways and sticky Paspalum grass lining the course. Along with distance, I’m prioritizing SG: APP, emphasizing long irons, since 44% of the approach shots here last year came from more than 200 yards out.
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. Here’s an important tidbit about Vidanta:
Vidanta Vallarta is a par-71 course that measures out to 7,456 yards. It ranks as the sixth-longest course on Tour. It is a unique track that has five par-3s to go with four par-5s and only nine par-4s. Unlike most resort courses, the first two years of this tournament have not resulted in a birdie-fest. Even though there isn’t much sample size, it ranks in the middle of the pack for scoring difficulty.
Along with its monstrous length, the coastal winds appear to be one of the course’s most prominent defenses. With the Pacific coast just down the road, crosswinds are known to impact the course starting around 11 am on most days. Jon Rahm had this to say about the effects of the wind in 2022. “There’s a big difference between morning and afternoon. We had no wind for 13 or 14 holes, and it was very scorable. Once the wind starts going 20-30 miles an hour, this golf course starts showing some teeth. It’s long. You have a couple really long par 4s. 4 and 8 are straight into the wind. Both of them 500 yards. So you can start seeing higher scores out there.”
Off the tee, players will be met with wide landing areas on fairways that are perfect for bombers who love to hit a ton of drivers. Almost 78% of drives were over 280 yards, which is one of the highest rates on Tour. Over the first two years, long hitters like Rahm, Finau, Cameron Champ, Joseph Bramlett, and Patrick Rodgers filled the top 10 of the leaderboard.
With this being such a lengthy track, 42% of approaches have been from over 200 yards, which is the highest rate by a large margin from any Tour course. This second-shot length does lead to fewer quality scoring chances as the average proximity to the hole is almost 44 feet, which was the furthest distance on any course last year.
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Remember to check out the Rabbit Hole, our customizable stat database that can help you pair down your player pool each week. Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.
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Noonan’s Mexico Open Betting Targets
Stephan Jaeger
The skill and course fit that I’m targeting this week is centered around plus-distance off the tee, ideally carry distance, along with strong long-iron play. Stephan Jaeger was the 54-hole leader at last month’s Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, another driver-heavy track with a leaderboard that could resemble what we see at Vidanta this week. Jaeger came out on top of my Rabbit Hole model this week. He’s performed better than anyone else in this field over the past year when teeing it up at driver-heavy courses with easier scoring conditions. With fairways being easier to hit as well, I wanted to look at how aggressive golfers are in going for the green (4th) and their birdie or better rate from the fairway (1st), and that’s where Jaeger excels. He’s also among the top-20 in the field in both driving distance and carry distance off the tee, and fourth in this field over the past 50 rounds in proximity from 200+ yards out.
Jaeger struggled on these paspalum greens last season, losing almost a stroke per round putting while still managing to finish T18. Putting is the most inconsistent part of Jaeger’s game, but he has shown some improvements there and has flashed a ceiling at times, gaining 4 or more strokes, putting in a round in 4.65% of the past 50 rounds, the fourth-highest rate in this field.
To Win: 28/1 BetRivers
Top 20: +110 BetMGM
Taylor Pendrith
Just like Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith finished among the top-10 at Torrey Pines in his last start, his fifth T15 or better finish in his past seven events. Pendrith has feasted on driver-heavy tracks with easier scoring conditions, ranking second in this week’s field in that stat, which landed him third overall in my model. He’s flirted with the top of the leaderboard at either longer courses or coastal courses with wind, and Vidanta qualifies as both.
Pendrith has plus-distance and a high ball flight, which helps him navigate the high number of long approach shots at a track like this. He finished T30 here last year in his debut but gained 3.2 strokes on approach. He’s been all or nothing of late, either contending or missing the cut, so we’ll know the answer pretty quickly on Pendrith this week.
To Win: 35/1 DraftKings
Top 30: -106 BetRivers
Davis Thompson
It’s clear that Davis Thompson made a shift in his game late last summer because he’s been far more consistent with his iron play, which has led to a lot more weekend golf for the 24-year-old. Davis has gained strokes on approach in four straight events and eight of his past nine measured events, with a T15 finish at El Cardonal mixed in there as well, where shotlink data wasn’t available. He’s sixth overall in my model this week, ranking inside the top six in fairway proximity from 200+ yards and birdie or better rate from the fairway. He’s also fifth in SG: Total on driver-heavy courses with easy scoring conditions.
In a weaker field event like this, I want to take a shot at some young ascending upside, and Thompson’s pedigree is one of a future winner on Tour.
To Win: 50/1 FanDuel
Top 30: +110 BetRivers
Doug Ghim
Doug Ghim doesn’t fit the bomber profile, but he’s added distance this year and is slightly above the Tour average in terms of distance off the tee in a handful of 2024 starts. Putting can be an adventure for Ghim, but tee-to-green, he is one of the more underrated players on Tour. He’s fourth in this field in SG: T2G over the past 12 months and has fared well at other driver-heavy events in the past despite his field-average distance. He’s been sharp the past two times out, posting a T13 at Torrey Pines followed by a T12 in Scottsdale, gaining throughout the bag in both starts. He’s always been a streaky golfer, and I’m hopeful that the recent strong finishes continue this week in Mexico.
To Win: 60/1 FanDuel
Top 30: +110 DraftKings
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