The third major of the 2023 golf season, and the 123rd edition of the U.S. Open, takes place at one of the country’s most celebrated yet rarely seen tracks, the North Course at Los Angeles Country Club. This is the first time since 1940 that we’re seeing LACC in a professional competition, and outside of a handful of golfers who participated in the 2017 Walker Cup on the property, most are getting their first look at it this week. It was renovated a few years prior by Gil Hanse and his team, who spearheaded the recent renovations at Southern Hills (2022 PGA) and Brookline (2022 U.S. Open).
I highly recommend checking out some of the flyovers or breakdowns that are out there if you haven’t already done so. Golf Digest, Fried Egg, and No Laying Up have you covered here. You can even watch the 2017 Walker Cup if you so choose. You’ll end up googling ‘Barranca,’ I promise.
We’re in for an exciting weekend of golf. LACC is a unique layout and should be a true test for everyone teeing it up this week. It’s a long Par 70, stretching out to 7,421 yards. This course will allow the USGA to manipulate the tee markers and hole locations in such a drastic way that the course, or at least specific holes, could look very different from day to day. There are severe elevation changes throughout, with wide-sloping fairways that’ll impact approach angles and fairway lies. This tweet from Ron is a great snapshot of the properties highlights:
For more course details, check out Ron’s course preview. It’s the best in the business, bar none. More on LACC here:
As one of the most unique courses to ever host a major, this is not your typical U.S. Open setup. Typically, U.S. Open courses have very narrow fairways. In contrast, LACC features wide open swaths of fairway on many holes. Thomas strongly believed in angles being an important part of course design. So he wanted players to have the opportunity off the tee to hit far left or far right. At the same time, it is not a course to simply bomb away as drives will need to have the proper shape to hold the fairway, thanks to the many contours that will funnel the ball towards the incorrect side. It has all the makings of a shotmaker’s dream.
The course is also full of eccentricities that are unusual for a U.S. Open course. Along with the ultra-wide fairways and atypical Bermuda rough, there are a multitude of landing spots for golf balls this week. Whether it’s having to hit from a sloped angle on the fairway, from a short-grass collection area below the green, or from a sandy area of vegetation in a barranca, there is a wide variety of lies, and thus unpredictable outcomes that are rarely seen anywhere else on the PGA Tour schedule. There are also numerous blind shots, both off the tee and on approach, that will only add to the unpredictability.
Even with some of the widest fairways in major championship history, LACC will not be a bombers’ paradise. Due to the aforementioned undulations and firmness of the property, it matters what happens when the ball hits the ground.
My goal with this piece is to touch on the golfers I’m targeting this week. There are millions of ways to bet on this beautiful game, so I’ll share my opinion on the best way to bet on each golfer in my player pool at this week’s event. When pricing out finishing position bets (T5, T10, T20s, etc.), I’ll often lean towards BetMGM even if there’s a better number elsewhere because of MGM’s advantageous dead-heat rules. So know the rules of the books that you’re betting on!
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets from myself or other contributors. Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the number that was posted for our subscribers in Discord .
*Betting lines are accurate when posted in Discord.
Noonan’s U.S. Open Betting Targets
Scottie Scheffler
I don’t love the short-term putting woes, but I’m willing to look past them this week. Scottie Scheffler has been so incredibly dominant tee-to-green this season. His 2023 season is far and away better than his 2022 season from a strokes-gained standpoint, which is a remarkable feat considering he won four times in 2022.
Over the past three months, Scheffler is gaining 3.47 strokes per round tee-to-green on the field. Over the same time frame, Patrick Cantlay (+2.15) and Jon Rahm (+2.14) are the only PGA Tour pros outside of Scheffler who are topping two strokes per round tee-to-green. The case against him is simple, but I rarely prioritize putting performance when handicapping an event, and sometimes I ignore it completely due to the high volatility in its event-to-event predictiveness.
If he posted field-average putting performances at the Memorial, Charles Schwab, or Masters, he’d be 4/1 to win this event, so +750 feels like a discount, as strange as that may sound.
Viktor Hovland
With a top-notch pedigree and skill set that can compete with anyone, the golf world was dying to see Viktor Hovland win outside of the fall and winter swing seasons. Two weeks ago at the Memorial, we finally saw Hovland’s breakthrough in a full-field PGA Tour event against elite competition, and now I’m ready for the floodgates to open.
His early career struggles in Majors are becoming a distant memory, with a T4 (2022 Open), T7 (2023 Masters), and T2 (2023 PGA) in his past three starts. His short-game work is paying off and, strangely enough, has never been the reason why he’s yet to win a Major. In the 11 majors he’s played where shotlink data was captured, he’s actually gained strokes around the green in 9 of those 11 major starts.
He’s long and accurate off the tee, one of the best long iron players in the world, and plays his best golf on long and difficult courses with bentgrass greens. He’s checking all the boxes this week.
- To Win: +1800 DraftKings
- Top 20: -145 BetMGM
Max Homa
Like most of the golf betting world, I jumped on Max Homa’s U.S. Open price back in January when he was cooking at Torrey Pines. By the time he was finished winning the Farmers Insurance Open that week, his price had dropped down into the 20s at most shops but has climbed back up into the low 30s here despite all the stories about his familiarity and success at LACC. Surely by now, you’ve heard that Max Homa holds the course record here.
The argument against Homa this week is that he’s yet to contend in a Major, and it’ll get increasingly difficult to argue the other side if he doesn’t play well this week. I’ve contended that he’s simply a different player than he’s been in years past, but it’s sort of a put-up-or-shut-up week for Homa and his backers. He’s been terrific in his home state of California throughout his career, winning four of his last eight starts here, though LACC is notably bentgrass greens and Bermuda fairways and rough, which is not the standard Poa layout that we’re used to seeing on the west coast.
Wyndham Clark
I’ll continue to go to the well on Wyndham Clark, especially at triple-digits, which was available over the weekend at FanDuel. After a tremendous run, Clark finally sealed the deal a few weeks back with his Wells Fargo Championship victory. His game is well-suited for long and difficult tracks like Quail Hollow, and LACC should be that and more.
Clark’s 2023 ascension has been on the back of elite approach play, where he’s gained strokes on the field in 16 of his past 17 measured starts. In fact, over his past 36 rounds, Clark ranks fourth in this field in approach and third in total strokes gained per round. Like Homa at this time last season, Clark is displaying an all-around game that should garner more attention than it is.
Mito Pereria
Mito Pereria took his talents to LIV Golf, so he’s out of sight, out of mind for most. While the field size and strength certainly impact things, I’ve been encouraged to see Mito finish inside the top-6 in four of his seven LIV Golf starts. He also played well in his recent full-field events during the swing season, and he sets up well for this course.
He’s long and relatively straight off the tee, and his long iron game is tremendous. Over the last two years, Pereria ranks sixth in this field in SG: APP from 150-200 yards out. That’ll play at any course.
Gary Woodland
I’ve said it before, Gary Woodland is not for everyone. He’ll often pop up as a great play when you don’t look at any putting metrics, which is the case for me this week, outside of ensuring that my golfers aren’t allergic to bentgrass.
Now that could be a mistake, but without it, Gary Woodland is a tremendous fit for this course. He’s long and straight off the tee, plus he’s one of the best 200+ yard approach players on Tour. In addition, bentgrass happens to be Woodland’s best putting surface, though best is certainly relative. Woodland ranks fifth(!?!) for me in my model over the past 36 rounds, so despite the putting worse, I’m willing to back him at this crazy-long number. After all, he’s won a U.S. Open in California before, so we shouldn’t be surprised when he’s in the mix. The finishing position bet is the wiser play, I acknowledge.
FanDuel Finishing Position Parlays
Matthew Fitzpatrick and Hideki Matsuyama – T40 (+142)
Collin Morikawa and Justin Rose – T40 (+169)
Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Brooks Koepka – T30 (+139)
This is a relatively new entry to the space, thanks to our friends at FanDuel. I played a number of these last season with a 9.85% ROI, so I’ll continue it this season. If it’s not for you, feel free to skip it.
Unlike most other books I’m familiar with, FanDuel allows you to parlay finishing position bets. Now, the very premise of the bet is flawed because the expected value is negative since players are competing for the same finishing positions. If the bet is two T40s like this one, when one leg of your parlay finishes above the threshold, there’s now one less spot available in that range for the other leg(s) to also come in. I know the math is terrible. Spare me. But let’s be honest. Some bets are just fun, and these are fun for me.
These golfers were on the short list of outright options for me, but I wanted to note them here. They’ll all likely be finishing position bets for me as well.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord at BetspertsGolf.com.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.