2023 The PLAYERS Championship – DraftKings Picks

Strategy

Volatility and variance are the words of the week. I love watching the PLAYERS because it’s the most unpredictable event of the year. And that’s why it’s one of the best viewing tournaments because of all the chaos and risk/reward holes, and honestly, because everyone has a chance to win. I haven’t embraced it as much from a DFS perspective because it almost seems like you have to be lucky to have a good week and I typically don’t like to play the ownership game.

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With all of the variance at TPC Sawgrass, any player can implode. The 10K guys are just as prone to it as the 6K players it seems. Stacked fields like this plus all of the volatility require you to embrace both variance and game theory. The reason is that the talent is so spread out up top and one guy is almost as likely to miss the cut as another.

Take Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay for example. Schauffele had two bad rounds over the weekend and yet is the fourth most expensive player this week. Because of these two facts, his ownership is only coming in at 11%. Patrick Cantlay, on the other hand, had a great showing last week but is $300 cheaper. His current ownership is approaching 20%. Even though I like Cantlay slightly more this week, I’m playing Schauffele at a higher rate because of the ownership leverage.

The unpredictability should also lead to a deeper player pool if mass multi-entering. Players in the $6-7K range have played a huge part of successful lineups at this event for many years. Back in 2018, the top seven golfers in DraftKings points were under $7,500! So why not take an unknown like a $6.7K Ryan Fox or a $6K Martin Laird. If players stay out of trouble and can avoid bogeys, anyone can make it through the cutline.

Also, keep an eye on the weather. It appears that winds are creeping up higher and higher in the afternoon on Friday. At the moment, I would say the PM/AM wave has about a 60% edge. If you multi-enter, wave stacking is another great option to cover all of your bases.

2023 The PLAYERS Championship Narratives and Important Metrics

Unique Model Weights

SG: Strong Field/Difficult Courses
SG: High Water Danger Courses
SG: Less Than Driver Courses

With all the volatility that surrounds TPC Sawgrass, I went a little lighter on finish position bets and tried to spread out my outrights more than usual to include a couple more mid-range plays. And I would encourage everyone to not go all in on any player.

A couple of things stand out in the “Winning Trends” for this event. First, past experience at TPC Sawgrass is huge. Players who have gone through the grind of playing this Pete Dye masterpiece, who have experienced both success and failure, have an advantage over golfers with less course history. Notice that I did not mention “positive” course history. With the event moving to March back in 2019, I am actually throwing those results out the window in the model for this week. It is not enough sample size, and with the volatility of this course, we have just as many missed cuts as Top-10 finishes from the best players in the world here. 7th most predictive course history

The second important trend that stands out is that players need to be in quality current form coming into this event. I will especially be targeting players who have been positive with their SG: Approach play over the past 12 rounds.

Three unique splits are used in the model this week. They are Strokes Gained performance on courses with strong fields and on difficult scoring courses, performance on less than driver courses, and strokes gained on courses with high water danger. With winds starting to creep into the mix for the week, players strong in the wind should also be targeted.

With so much trouble at every turn, Bogey and Double Bogey avoidance is another stat with added weight this week. Players must keep big numbers off of their scorecards.

Around the green play and scrambling is also huge this week. Every player will end up needing to scramble for par or bogey. Players who can limit the damage and get up and down to save strokes are preferred.

With over a 39% Birdie or Better rate on the Par-5s, it is essential that players shoot under par on these holes. Par-5 scoring shows up in the model on the Scoring and Core 4 splits this week.

Finally, with all types of players finding success here at TPC Sawgrass, my focus will be on all-around skill players who are generally positive in their tee-to-green game each week, with an added focus on elite ball-strikers.

Most Important Stats For Success at the PLAYERS Championship

*In order of importance

SG: APP
Good Drive %
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
SG: ARG
Par 5 Scoring
SG: Putting (overall)
Par 4 Scoring
Birdie or Better%
SG: Total in Difficult Fields

Weather Forecast – Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida

The PLAYERS Championship – DraftKings Picks

Each week along with presenting my top choices for each of the categories below, I will include each of the pertinent stats for the specific event that comes directly from my model. Except for the “Core Plays,” which most weeks will typically be somewhat on the chalky side, I will include at least one player I am positive on who is forecast to be lower-owned and who will present a good pivot from some of the higher-owned options. In essence, the players you see below make up the majority of my player pool for this event.

Last week, I took a chance on two lower-owned established players in Hideki Matsuyama and Matt Fitzpatrick. Unfortunately, that didn’t work out so well as both missed the cut on the number. The volatility of this week will push me to have multiple cores mixed into the different contests I am entering. But my favorite core is listed below. Again, if anyone ever has questions about my player pool, how I build lineups, or anything strategy-related, you know where to find me in the Discord.